Sofia Quijada
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Just one point separates these two sides in the Clausura table, and both arrive in Mendoza fresh off results that kept their push for the top half alive. Independiente Rivadavia sit 9th with 17 points off a narrow 1-0 win over Barracas Central, while Gimnasia LP sit 10th on the same tally after a scrappy 2-2 draw with Banfield. Neither side has lost by more than one goal in their last three outings, which hints at a cagey, low-margin affair rather than a goal rush.
Alex Arce has been the standout attacking weapon for the hosts, scoring four goals across his last three appearances, and his movement in behind will test a Gimnasia back line that has conceded in four of its last five games. For the visitors, Agustin Auzmendi carries the same kind of threat with three goals in three starts, giving Gimnasia a genuine reason to believe they can take something from this trip despite the odds leaning home.
Hot stat: Alex Arce has scored more goals (4) in his last three matches than Gimnasia LP’s entire back four has conceded combined over their last three games (3), underlining how sharp his finishing form has become heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Argentine Primera Division 2026, Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Bautista Gargantini, Mendoza |
| 🗓️ Date: | 03.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:30 CEST |
Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia LP prediction
We lean toward Independiente Rivadavia here, not because of a dominant gap in quality, but because home advantage and recent scoring efficiency tilt things slightly their way. Rivadavia have scored seven goals in their last five matches against Gimnasia’s five, and they’ve won four of their last six games overall. Gimnasia, by contrast, have managed just two wins in their last five and have leaked goals in bunches against sides capable of attacking with pace, exactly what Rivadavia’s front two offer.
Rivadavia’s style leans physical but controlled, 49 fouls and 11 yellow cards across their last five matches against Gimnasia’s 40 fouls and 7 cards, yet their passing accuracy of 940 completed passes shows a side comfortable building through midfield rather than relying purely on long balls. Gimnasia’s numbers are leaner across the board, fewer shots, fewer interceptions, which points to a team that sits deeper and waits. That passive approach could invite pressure Rivadavia are well equipped to punish at home.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Alex Arce to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Independiente Rivadavia’s last match was a tight 1-0 win over Barracas Central, a result that kept their recent run at three wins, one draw and one loss across the last five games. In our preview of Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia we backed a comfortable 2-1 away win built around Arce’s scoring form, and while the margin was tighter than expected, the 1-0 result confirmed the direction of that call, Rivadavia won and kept Barracas off the scoresheet exactly as we expected. The win was built on patience rather than fireworks, and that same discipline should serve them well against another side that struggles to break teams down.
Gimnasia LP’s most recent outing ended 2-2 against Banfield, continuing a stretch where they’ve picked up two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five matches. The draw extended a pattern of games that open up defensively, Gimnasia have now failed to keep a clean sheet in three straight matches, conceding at least one goal every time. Auzmendi’s goals have kept them competitive, but the leaky defense is the bigger concern heading into Mendoza.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Independiente Rivadavia | Gimnasia LP |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia LP stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Independiente Rivadavia the favourite
- Moneyline Independiente Rivadavia 1.90 | Gimnasia LP 4.00
- Draw 3.27
The market is clear on who deserves favourite status here. An average price near 1.90 on Rivadavia reflects both the home edge and their superior recent form, while odds pushing above 4.00 on Gimnasia show bookmakers see this as a tough away trip for a side that hasn’t won on the road in its last three attempts. The draw price around 3.27 looks fair given how close these two sit in the table, but we think the home win carries better value given the attacking gap between the sides.
Possible Starting Lineups
Independiente Rivadavia possible starting eleven
- GK: Nicolás Bolcato
- DF: Leonard Costa, Juan Elordi, Iván Villalba, Alejo Osella
- MF: Tomas Bottari, Jose Ignacio Florentin, Gonzalo Rios, Luis Sequeira
- FW: Alex Arce, Fabrizio Sartori Prieto
Berti has largely stuck with the same core across the last five games, and the 4-1-3-2 shape suits the balance between Bottari’s defensive cover and the creative freedom given to Florentin and Rios. Arce remains the player to watch, four goals in three starts is the kind of form that decides tight home games like this one.
Gimnasia LP possible starting eleven
- GK: Nelson Insfrán
- DF: Bautista Barros Schelotto, Enzo Martínez, Pedro Silva Torrejón, Germán Conti
- MF: Ignacio Fernández, Mateo Seoane, Franco Ramón Torres, Alexis Steimbach, Nicolás Barros Schelotto
- FW: Agustin Auzmendi
Pereyra’s 4-2-3-1 asks Fernández and Seoane to shield the back four while Auzmendi works alone up top. Auzmendi’s three goals in three games make him the one genuine outlet going forward, and Gimnasia’s result will likely hinge on how much service he gets against a Rivadavia midfield that controls possession well.
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Gimnasia LP. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Independiente Rivadavia to win this one 2-0, built around Arce’s current scoring streak and a Gimnasia defense that has conceded in three straight matches. Perhaps the draw stays live for an hour given how even these sides look on paper, but Rivadavia’s home comfort and sharper finishing should be enough to separate them late. To be honest, backing the away side to keep a clean sheet here looks like the tougher ask of the two outcomes, and that’s why under 2.5 goals paired with no BTTS makes the most sense for value hunters this round.
