Sofia Quijada
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Independiente Petrolero host Guabira in a mid-table Bolivian Professional Football League clash that carries real weight for both sides. Petrolero sit 9th with 21 points from 15 games, while Guabira occupy 6th on 25 points from 16 outings. Three points here could shift Petrolero level with their opponents, making this a direct six-pointer in the race for a better standing. Guabira have not lost once in their last seven matches, which is the form line that defines this fixture.
For Independiente Petrolero, midfielder Willie is the standout name, contributing 3 goals and 1 assist across the last five matches with 19 shots taken. On the Guabira side, forward Pedro has been relentless, bagging 5 goals in 5 appearances with 12 shots, making him the most dangerous attacker in this tie.
Hot stat: Guabira have recorded 31 corner kicks across their last five matches, averaging over 6 per game, a number that creates serious set-piece pressure and opens up additional betting angles well beyond the main result market.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bolivian Professional Football League 2026, Regular Season |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Independiente Petrolero vs Guabira Prediction
Guabira’s unbeaten run of seven games, five wins and two draws, makes them the value pick despite being listed as the away side. Petrolero’s season-long winrate of just 28% across 29 matches is a red flag that their bookmaker-favourite status does not fully justify. Guabira have beaten higher-ranked opponents recently, including a 3-1 win over The Strongest and a 2-1 victory against Universitario de Vinto, showing they can perform against different levels of opposition.
Petrolero average fewer shots (57 over five games) and fewer corners (14) compared to Guabira’s 80 shots and 31 corners. Guabira also commit significantly more fouls (59 vs 42), which feeds into a higher free-kick count (41 vs 36), suggesting a physical, disrupted game. Petrolero have picked up 3 red cards in five matches, which is a disciplinary concern that could leave them exposed if they go down to ten men again. Guabira’s passing volume is higher but their accuracy is slightly lower (1297 vs 1375 adjusted), pointing to a direct, vertical style rather than patient build-up play.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Guabira to win & Over 1.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Independiente Petrolero’s recent form is a mixed picture. They beat Blooming 5-2 and The Strongest 2-1 in back-to-back games, showing genuine attacking output when confidence is high. The concern is the 0-3 home defeat to Nacional Potosi in their most recent outing, a result that snapped a positive run and exposed defensive fragility. Across five games they conceded 9 goals, averaging nearly two per match. Three red cards in that same stretch compound the problem, and coach Juan Pablo Grass will need to manage discipline carefully here.
Guabira arrive in excellent shape. They won their last four games before drawing 1-1 with Blooming in their most recent fixture. That draw came against a side they outshot and outworked, and prior to that they had beaten The Strongest 3-1, which remains the most impressive result in their recent run. Pedro’s five goals in five appearances give them a reliable goal threat, and the team has scored in every one of their last five matches. Zero losses in seven games is not a fluke given the quality of opposition they have faced.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Date | Tournament | Independiente Petrolero | Guabira |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (Liga) | Bolivian Professional Football League 2026 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026 (Copa) | Copa Sudamericana 2026 Round 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 (Liga) | Bolivian Professional Football League 2025 Apertura | 3 | 1 |
| 2025 (Copa) | Copa de la División Profesional 2025 Group D | 1 | 3 |
| 2025 (Liga) | Bolivian Professional Football League 2025 Apertura | 1 | 1 |
| 2025 (Copa) | Copa de la División Profesional 2025 Group D | 0 | 1 |
The head-to-head record is tight. Out of six recent meetings, Guabira have won two, Petrolero one, and three ended level. Guabira have scored in five of the six encounters, and the overall goal tally leans toward open, competitive matches between these clubs.
🚨Check out our dedicated Independiente Petrolero vs Guabira stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Independiente Petrolero the Favourite
- Moneyline Independiente Petrolero 1.97 | Guabira 3.05
- Draw 3.48
Petrolero are priced as favourites at around 1.97, which reflects home advantage more than current form. Guabira at 3.05 represents genuine value given their seven-game unbeaten run and superior recent metrics. The draw at 3.48 is fair given how frequently these two sides have shared points historically, but backing Guabira to at least avoid defeat looks like the smarter play at those odds.
Possible Starting Lineups
Independiente Petrolero Possible Starting Eleven
- MF: Willie, Gustavo Cristaldo, Rudy Cardozo, Wilfredo Soleto
- FW: Jefferson Carioca, Gilbert Alvarez
Petrolero line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape. Willie is the creative engine in midfield with 3 goals and 1 assist in five games, and he will carry much of the attacking responsibility. Gustavo Cristaldo adds passing volume alongside him, while Rudy Cardozo provides defensive cover in the double pivot. Jefferson Carioca leads the line, with Gilbert Alvarez offering wide threat. The defensive positions are not confirmed from available data, but the midfield and forward setup reflects the most consistent performers over the last five outings.
Guabira Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: M. Ferrel
- DF: Milciades Portillo, S. Gil, J. Barro
- MF: A. Moreno, N. Masskooni, Thiago Ribeiro, D. Da Silva
- FW: Pedro, Victor Abrego, Makerlo Tellez
Guabira set up in a 4-2-3-1. M. Ferrel is a consistent presence in goal with 20 saves across five games. The back line of Portillo, Gil, and Barro has been reliable, with Barro recording 9 interceptions, the highest of any outfield player in the squad. Pedro leads the attack and is the player to watch, having scored 5 goals in 5 appearances. Victor Abrego adds a secondary threat with 1 goal and 8 shots. N. Masskooni anchors the midfield with 4 interceptions and high defensive work rate.
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Guabira. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Guabira to take at least a point from this match, with a Guabira win being our primary recommendation. Their seven-game unbeaten run, Pedro’s goal-scoring form, and Petrolero’s defensive issues including three red cards and nine goals conceded in five games all point toward the visitors. Petrolero’s 5-2 win over Blooming and 2-1 over The Strongest show they can score, so both teams finding the net is a strong secondary bet. The corner market also favours Guabira heavily given their 31 corners in five matches. To be honest, the home favourite tag here is misleading, and Guabira at 3.05 deserves serious consideration for anyone looking for value.
