Levi Rothermund
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Hoffenheim welcome Besiktas to the Prezero Arena with two very different stories on the table. The Germans sit dead last in the League Phase standings after a flat 0-2 opening defeat, while Besiktas arrive third, buzzing after a 4-1 romp in their first continental outing this season.
Here’s the inside angle worth knowing: Hoffenheim have lost four of their last five matches in all competitions, and three of those defeats came by conceding at least two goals. Besiktas, meanwhile, have scored in every single one of their last five games under Vincenzo Italiano. One side is leaking goals, the other can’t stop finding the net. That contrast frames almost everything about this fixture.
Keep an eye on Dušan Vlahović up top for Besiktas. He’s netted twice in his last three appearances and tends to find pockets of space against high defensive lines, something Hoffenheim have struggled to control lately. On the home side, Andrej Kramarić remains the creative spark Hoffenheim lean on when games get stretched, even if his final output has been quiet recently.
Hot stat: Besiktas have scored eight goals across their last five matches compared to just three for Hoffenheim in the same span, and the Germans have failed to win in four of those five outings. That gap is hard to ignore going into this one.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Prezero Arena, Sinsheim |
| 🗓️ Date: | 15.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Hoffenheim vs Besiktas prediction
We lean toward Besiktas here, either outright or at least avoiding defeat. The home side’s recent collapse is too pronounced to just wave off as a blip, and Besiktas look sharper in nearly every attacking metric right now. Our punters team sees value in Besiktas Draw No Bet rather than the plain moneyline, since Hoffenheim at home still carry some unpredictability, but the underlying trend clearly favors the visitors.
Style-wise, Hoffenheim have committed 48 fouls across their last five matches against just 29 for Besiktas, yet picked up fewer cards overall, five against eight. That suggests Besiktas play a slightly more cynical, game-management style under Italiano, happy to take a yellow to stop transitions. Passing accuracy sits around 84% for Hoffenheim and closer to 88% for Besiktas over the same stretch, a small but real gap that tends to matter in tight European nights. Corners are close, roughly four per game each, so set-piece volume shouldn’t swing things dramatically.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Besiktas Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Hoffenheim’s season reads rough right now. They sit bottom of the League Phase table after losing their opener 0-2, and domestically things aren’t better: four defeats in their last five, including a 2-3 home loss to Hamburger SV most recently. That game summed up their problems, decent spells going forward but soft defending at the other end. Before that it was a 1-3 loss to Paderborn and a 0-2 defeat to OFI Crete, with a single win over Stuttgart breaking up an otherwise grim run. In our preview of Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV we backed the hosts to win by two goals, but Hamburg turned it on its head and won 3-2, so that call went against us.
Besiktas tell the opposite story. Four wins from their last five fixtures, and the one blemish, a 2-3 loss to Amedspor, came sandwiched between a 4-1 win over Marseille and a 3-0 win over Erzurumspor. Their most recent outing was a tighter 2-1 away win over Kocaelispor, not as dominant as earlier results but still a result that keeps the momentum rolling heading into Germany. In our preview of Besiktas vs Kocaelispor we called for Besiktas to win by two goals or more, and while they did win, the 2-1 scoreline fell short of that margin, so the call only partly landed.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Hoffenheim and Besiktas have no recent competitive meetings on record between them. This fixture marks a fresh encounter with no direct history to draw from.
🚨Check out our dedicated Hoffenheim vs Besiktas stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Hoffenheim the favourite
- Moneyline Hoffenheim 1.92 | Besiktas 3.20
- Draw 3.80
Bookmakers still tilt toward Hoffenheim, likely leaning on home advantage more than current form. Honestly, that gap between the odds and the actual trend lines looks a bit generous toward the hosts. Besiktas at around 3.20 to 3.58 across the market feels like fair value given how both sides have been trending over the past month.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hoffenheim possible starting eleven
- GK: Oliver Baumann
- DF: Valentin Gendrey, Ozan Kabak, Robin Hranáč, Vladimír Coufal
- MF: Wouter Burger, Leon Avdullahu, Andrej Kramarić, Bambasé Conté, Fisnik Asllani
- FW: Tim Lemperle
Ilzer should stick with the 4-1-4-1 shape that’s featured in his last five matches. Burger anchors things in front of the back four, while Kramarić and Conté carry most of the creative burden. Lemperle leads the line alone, and he’ll need support quickly given how often Hoffenheim have been caught out defensively this run.
Besiktas possible starting eleven
- GK: Alexander Nübel
- DF: Amir Murillo, Emirhan Topçu, Tiago Djaló, Ridvan Yilmaz
- MF: Salih Özcan, Fabio Miretti, Orkun Kökçü, Ilhan Fakili, Junior Olaitan
- FW: Dušan Vlahović
Italiano’s 4-2-3-1 has been consistent across his last five games. Özcan and Miretti shield the back four, letting Kökçü push forward from the number ten slot where he’s chipped in two goals and two assists recently. Vlahović stays the focal point up top, and his movement against a shaky Hoffenheim defense could be decisive.
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Hoffenheim. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We think Besiktas edge this one, or at the very least avoid a loss. Hoffenheim’s defensive numbers have been poor for weeks now, and Besiktas’ attack, led by Vlahović and Kökçü, looks capable of exploiting that regardless of the venue. Expect goals at both ends though, since Hoffenheim rarely go quiet going forward even in defeat. A final scoreline somewhere around 1-2 or 2-2 feels realistic, with BTTS and over 2.5 goals as the stronger supporting picks.
