Heracles vs Excelsior Prediction: 20.03.2026 Eredivisie Preview

On 20th March 2026, Heracles will face Excelsior at the Polman Stadion in Almelo for what promises to be a tense Eredivisie relegation scrap. Both sides are desperate to snatch what would be only a second league victory this year, with season stats making uncomfortable reading for their fans. While Heracles’ defensive woes are glaring, Excelsior’s form has also spiraled, setting the scene for a fiercely-contested encounter. Notably, both teams share an identical win rate in 2026 — a meagre 9 percent — meaning every single point carries immense weight at this stage.

Keep an eye on Excelsior’s Noah Naujoks, who’s notched 2 goals from midfield in their last five outings, providing rare attacking spark, while Heracles’ Lequincio Zeefuik, despite the team’s struggles up front, could be a difference-maker with his energy and relentless pressing from the wings.

One “hot stat” leaps out from recent matches: Excelsior have outshot Heracles 62 to 40 across their last five games, despite their struggles to convert chances into goals—this attacking volume could prove crucial if they find their finishing boots in Almelo.

🏅Best bets for Heracles vs Excelsior at WinSpirit with a Welcome bonus 100% up to 100$ and 25% Freebet💰

Heracles vs Excelsior prediction

Despite both teams languishing near the foot of the table and suffering from a brutal lack of victories (just one win each in their last eleven games this year), Excelsior appear to carry a slightly sharper attacking edge. Their shot count is superior and they boast more dynamism going forward, led by the likes of Naujoks from deep. Yet, Heracles will look to reassert themselves at home after four straight defeats, banking on the passion of their supporters and perhaps a moment of individual quality from Zeefuik or Hrustic. Discipline will be key—Heracles’ average of 2 yellow cards per match and Excelsior’s relative caution could tilt the balance if it becomes a feisty affair.

It’s worth highlighting that Heracles average higher total fouls (12 per game over the last five) and have taken fewer corners (15 to Excelsior’s 20), reflecting a side under persistent pressure and less successful in advancing play into dangerous areas. Excelsior, for their part, are more careful in possession (higher pass accuracy, 78% to Heracles’ 79%), which could see them control longer stretches of the game, especially if Heracles’ typically aggressive approach results in more turnovers.

Team Analysis

Heracles Recent Matches:
Heracles are enduring a torrid run, most recently falling 0-4 at home to AZ Alkmaar — a result that starkly underlined their defensive frailties and toothless attacking play. They offered scant resistance, mustering just one shot on target and struggling to keep their shape. Previously, a marginally more encouraging 0-0 draw against Utrecht was quickly offset by a run of defeats (1-3 v PSV, 0-4 v GA Eagles, 0-1 v NAC Breda) where a lack of creativity and poor transition play were painfully evident. Despite occasional bright moments from Zeefuik and Hrustic, team statistics (just 1 goal scored in five matches, 15 corners, 60 fouls) tell a tale of a side under the cosh, frequently on the back foot.

Excelsior Recent Matches:
Excelsior’s recent record offers little more comfort. Their latest outing saw a narrow but galling 1-2 home defeat to Feyenoord—Naujoks getting on the scoresheet. Losses to Heerenveen (1-2), GA Eagles (0-1), Sittard (1-2), and AZ Alkmaar (1-2) followed a similar pattern: plucky performances but too few goals scored for the number of chances created. Across these last five games, Excelsior have actually registered three goals (compared to Heracles’ one), fired 62 shots, and delivered 20 corners, but have ultimately failed to turn attacking intent into points. Defensive lapses and some wayward finishing leave them vulnerable, but their offensive intent should not be discounted.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Heracles vs Excelsior stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Heracles the favourite

• Moneyline Heracles 2.27-2.57 | Excelsior 2.75-2.92
• Draw 2.92-3.70
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.86 | Under 2.5 1.87
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.74 | No 2.13

While the home advantage nudges bookmakers to shade Heracles as very slight favourites, the reality on the pitch has shown little to separate these sides. The draw and Excelsior outcomes are priced attractively, suggesting the market sees value in Heracles’ vulnerability and Excelsior’s higher shot volume. Given both teams’ lack of wins and scoring struggles, opportunities likely hinge on fleeting moments or set pieces—making “Under 2.5 goals” and “No BTTS” plausible outcomes. The close moneyline pricing for Excelsior reflects the market’s recognition of their attacking output and Heracles’ defensive frailty.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

Possible Starting Lineups

Heracles possible starting eleven

• GK: Remko Pasveer
• DF: Ivan Mesik, Damon Mirani, Alec Van Hoorenbeeck, Jannes Luca Wieckhoff
• MF: Ajdin Hrustic, Thomas Bruns, Erik Ahlstrand, Rhys Bozinovski
• FW: Lequincio Zeefuik, Naci Ünüvar

Heracles are expected to stick with their familiar 4-2-3-1 structure, banking on Pasveer’s veteran presence in goal and hoping for a more cohesive defensive display. Mesik and Mirani anchor the back line, while Hrustic and Ahlstrand will be tasked with breaking up play and launching attacks. Up front, Zeefuik’s work rate and pace will be crucial on the counter, with Ünüvar given licence to roam. Key player to watch: Zeefuik — if Heracles are to find a way through, he’s likely at the heart of it.

Excelsior possible starting eleven

• GK: Stijn van Gassel
• DF: Casper Widell, Arthur Zagre, Lewis Schouten, Rick Meissen
• MF: Noah Naujoks, Lennard Hartjes, Irakli Yegoian
• FW: Derensili Sanches Fernandes, Gyan de Regt, Miliano Jonathans

Excelsior, under Ruben den Uil, also favour a 4-2-3-1, though with more attacking fluidity from wide areas and midfield runners. Expect Naujoks to push forward aggressively from midfield, providing the link to a youthful attack line. Defensive solidity is vested in Widell and Zagre, while van Gassel offers safe hands between the sticks. Keep an eye on Naujoks, given his recent contributions in front of goal, and Fernandes for his pace on the break.

Best football betting sites and Bonuses

My take on the Match

Given the dire run of form for both teams, this one is poised on a knife-edge. The main pick is Draw No Bet Excelsior — they offer slightly more firepower and have demonstrated better attacking numbers, while Heracles look short of offensive confidence. Expect a cagey contest, likely low on goals considering both teams’ recent output and the looming threat of relegation sapping their ambition. This could come down to a single moment — a set piece, a defensive lapse, or a flash of brilliance from a player like Naujoks or Zeefuik. Neither side has inspired much faith, but Excelsior’s extra attacking output and slightly steadier discipline tip the balance in their favour for some, though few would be shocked to see a stalemate here.

More useful links for football fans

• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG