Hearts vs Hibernian Prediction: 10.02.2026 Scottish Premiership

The storied Edinburgh derby is upon us once more, as Hearts host Hibernian at Tynecastle Park in a Scottish Premiership fixture that carries far more than city pride. With Hearts pushing hard at the top of the table and Hibernian striving to break into the European spots, both sides arrive with genuine intent. It’s a match where form books are often torn up, yet the underlying numbers reveal intriguing subplots—especially considering Hearts’ formidable home form this season paired with Hibernian’s knack for clutch performances on the road.

Keep a keen eye on Lawrence Shankland for Hearts, whose clinical finishing has once again proven vital, as well as Rocky Bushiri for Hibernian—a defensive stalwart who’s capable of popping up with a set-piece goal. These two could provide decisive moments in what promises to be another fiercely contested meeting.

Notably, Hibernian have amassed 25 corners in their last five matches—the kind of stat that tells its own story about their attacking width and sustained pressure, a potential thorn for the Hearts backline to contend with.

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Hearts vs Hibernian prediction

The best value bet for this edition of the Edinburgh derby looks to be backing Hearts to win, but with an extra layer of security through the Asian Handicap (-0.5 or -1). Hearts have the managerial stewardship of Derek McInnes to thank for a disciplined, tactically sharp season, with an unbeaten home record that underlines their solidity. Hibernian, for all their attacking intent, have struggled with consistency away from Easter Road, notching just two wins in their last six matches.

Looking further, Hearts’ recent matches show a balanced mix of control and aggression: averaging 13 shots per match, a respectable 85% passing accuracy, and just eight yellow cards in their last five fixtures. Hibernian, meanwhile, slightly edge Hearts in total attempts but at the cost of more disciplinary trouble—ten yellows in as many games, alongside a high corner count and more interceptions, reflecting a pressing, riskier approach. The risk for Hibernian is clear: while they do create chances, their tendency to concede cheap fouls and allow counter-attacks could hand Hearts an edge, especially if Shankland and Kabore get space in transition.

Team Analysis

Hearts extended their strong campaign with a confident 3-0 dismantling of Dundee United, but were recently left frustrated by a narrow 0-1 defeat to Saint Mirren. Over their last five, they’ve shown composure in tight matches (1-1 v Falkirk, 2-2 v Celtic) and have displayed their attacking diversity, with goals from Kabore, Shankland and Magnusson spreading the offensive load. Defensive lapses occasionally creep in, yet the squad repeatedly demonstrates resilience, notably in how they bounce back after dropped points.

Hibernian remain a side that promises plenty, yet delivers somewhat inconsistently. Their 3-2 victory over Dundee United was a testament to their fighting spirit, but drubbings such as the 1-4 loss to Falkirk hint at frailties under sustained pressure. Scoreless draws against top opposition (0-0 v Rangers, 1-1 v Motherwell) reveal their tactical flexibility, but also their lack of a cutting edge on occasion. Bushiri and Boyle have been key at both ends of the park, while David Gray’s approach continues to lean on pressing and quick transitions, which should make the derby a lively tactical chess match.

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🚨Read our full Hearts vs Hibernian stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Hearts the favourite

• Moneyline Hearts 1.71 | Hibernian 4.80
• Draw 3.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.95 | Under 2.5 1.85
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.80 | No 2.00

Odds strongly favour Hearts, and with good reason. Their home form has been superb, and the implied probability (53 percent) underlines their authority at Tynecastle. Hibernian’s volatile away form and more cavalier tactical approach make them outsiders here, though their ability to nick a goal can’t be discounted—hence the value in both teams to score and an over 2.5 goals flutter. Bookmakers have set a fairly tight margin, reflective of derby unpredictability, but the numbers back a Hearts win.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Hearts possible starting eleven

McInnes has stuck with a flexible 3-4-3 when on the front foot, morphing into a 5-2-3 when under the cosh. Expect Gordon’s experience between the sticks, a solid back line marshalled by Findlay and Halkett, with attacking width provided by Kyziridis and Kabore—whose pace and movement have troubled Hibs before. Magnusson offers a late-arriving presence in midfield, while Shankland’s goalscoring threat will be pivotal. Watch for set-piece opportunities—both Findlay and Halkett are aerially strong.

Hibernian possible starting eleven

David Gray prefers a balanced 4-2-3-1, though he can pivot to a more robust defensive shape when needed. Sallinger is likely to get the nod in goal, with Megwa and Iredale as attacking fullbacks. Hanley’s positioning pairs effectively with Bushiri’s aggression. In midfield, Barlaser and Obita bring energy and passing range, while Boyle and Youan provide a threat between the lines. Up front, Suto could get the start following his recent goal, supported by the creative spark of Newell just behind.

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My take on the Match

There’s rarely a dull moment in the Edinburgh derby, and this meeting arrives with Hearts as deserved favourites thanks to their home record, tactical organisation, and attacking depth. The robust midfield dynamism of Spittal and Leonard, allied to defensive experience and Shankland’s poaching instincts, should tip the tie in their favour. Hibernian, while no strangers to causing an upset—especially with Boyle’s inventive streak and Bushiri’s set-piece threat—may ultimately be hindered by defensive lapses and issues with discipline. I’m tipping Hearts for a cagey, gritty win but expect both sides to get on the scoresheet. My main pick: Hearts to win and over 2.5 goals.

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