Liam Duckstein
Hapoel Tel Aviv host Ludogorets at Bloomfield Stadium in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League Second Qualifying Round tie. The Bulgarian side arrive as the bookmakers’ favourite, carrying a noticeably better run of form into this match, though Hapoel’s home support and a recent unbeaten streak of five games make this a genuinely competitive fixture. The first leg will go a long way to shaping who advances, so neither side can afford a passive approach.
Ludogorets midfielder depth and their ability to control tempo will be key, and their coach Per-Mathias Høgmo has built a side that grinds out results even without spectacular football. On the other side, Hapoel Tel Aviv under Elyaniv Barda have leaned on their attacking unit, and their forward play in recent weeks has shown enough creativity to cause problems. Keep an eye on how Hapoel’s press holds up in the second half, because that is where Ludogorets tend to punish teams who lose their shape.
Hot stat: Ludogorets have won four of their last five matches without conceding a defeat, including a 7-4 demolition of Etar, which signals an attack that is firing with confidence heading into European competition.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:30 CEST |
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ludogorets Prediction
Ludogorets are the stronger side on paper, and their recent form backs that up. They have dropped just one point across five games, winning four, and their defensive record has been solid. Hapoel Tel Aviv, to be honest, have been inconsistent over the same period: two wins, three draws, and no losses, but that draw-heavy record suggests they struggle to convert pressure into victories against quality opposition.
Ludogorets winning this first leg on the road is a real possibility, but at odds around 2.25 to 2.40, the value sits more in a low-scoring match market. Both teams have shown they can keep things tight in European qualifiers, and Hapoel’s five-match unbeaten run indicates they are not easy to break down at home. We predict an away win or a narrow draw, with goals being limited. The total goals market leaning under 2.5 makes sense given the cautious nature of European qualifier first legs.
Hapoel Tel Aviv tend to commit fouls in dangerous areas when pressed, which could hand Ludogorets set-piece opportunities. Ludogorets operate with a 4-3-3 that values ball retention, and if their pass accuracy holds up, they will dictate the tempo. Hapoel also line up in a 4-3-3, so the midfield battle will be tight. A high foul count from both sides is plausible given the stakes, which increases the likelihood of yellow cards and free kicks in threatening positions.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Ludogorets to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Hapoel Tel Aviv come into this match on the back of five unbeaten games, but the results tell a mixed story. They drew 2-2 with Beitar Jerusalem in their most recent outing, a result that reflected their tendency to give up leads rather than hold them. Before that, a goalless draw against Banska Bystrica showed that Hapoel can be contained when opponents commit defensively. Their wins came against Dunajska Streda (1-0) and Zlin (2-1), both narrow, and a 3-3 draw with Bnei Yehuda earlier in the run exposed their defensive fragility when facing sides willing to press high.
Ludogorets arrive in Tel Aviv with genuine momentum. Their last five matches produced four wins and one draw, with a combined goal tally that includes that remarkable 7-4 win over Etar. More relevant to this fixture, though, are the three consecutive 1-0 wins that followed: against Etar, FC Botosani ended in a 2-2 draw, and then three straight clean-sheet victories over Septemvri Sofia, Teuta, and Lokomotiv Plovdiv. That late sequence of disciplined, winning performances is exactly the kind of form you want heading into a European qualifier. They are not just scoring freely; they are also keeping opponents out.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides meet in the UEFA Conference League Second Qualifying Round for what appears to be a fresh European encounter. The available head-to-head data covers this fixture only, so the table below reflects the bookmakers’ pre-match expectations for the tie.
| Statistic | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers Win Probability | 30% | 40% |
🚨Check out our dedicated Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ludogorets stats page for more info.
Hapoel Tel Aviv. Source: Official Website
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Ludogorets the Favourite
- Moneyline Hapoel Tel Aviv 3.09 | Ludogorets 2.38
- Draw 2.99
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The Pinnacle odds of 3.09 for Hapoel and 2.38 for Ludogorets reflect the bookmakers’ view accurately. Ludogorets at around 2.25 to 2.40 across most books represents a fair price for a side with their recent form and European pedigree. The draw at roughly 3.00 to 3.10 is worth considering given Hapoel’s home record and their ability to stay in matches even when not at their best. We lean toward Ludogorets to win, with the draw as a secondary option if Hapoel’s defensive organisation holds up through the first half.
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Ludogorets. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Ludogorets are the better-ranked side by a significant margin and their form over the last 30 days speaks for itself: four wins from five with no defeats, compared to Hapoel’s two wins from five. The Bulgarian side know how to manage European qualifiers, and their recent run of three straight 1-0 wins shows they can shut games down when needed.
Hapoel Tel Aviv have home advantage and they will make this difficult, but their draw-heavy form and defensive lapses in recent matches are a concern at this level. We predict a Ludogorets win, likely by a single goal, with the match staying under 2.5 goals. The “Ludogorets to win to nil” market is the sharpest value bet here, backed by their three consecutive clean sheets and Hapoel’s inconsistency in front of goal against organised defences.
