Alex MacQuoid
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The second leg of this UEFA Conference League Playoffs tie takes place at DVTK Stadion in Miskolc, with the aggregate score locked at 0-0 after a goalless first leg. Atalanta, now managed by Maurizio Sarri, arrive as heavy favorites, but a tie that has produced zero goals so far makes this anything but a formality. Hapoel Tel Aviv under Elyaniv Barda have shown they can frustrate quality opposition, and the fact that the first leg ended scoreless at Atalanta’s ground is genuinely significant. One goal here could flip everything.
Two players worth tracking in this match: Emmanuel Boateng has been Hapoel’s most direct attacking threat over the last five matches, scoring twice and offering something different from the Israeli side’s otherwise cautious approach. For Atalanta, Nikola Krstović leads their recent scoring charts with two goals in four appearances, taking 11 shots across those games, a real focal point for Sarri’s attack.
Hot stat: Atalanta have attempted 41 total shots across their last five matches compared to Hapoel’s 31, but Hapoel have actually scored more goals in that same period, five to Atalanta’s three. Make of that what you will.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27 – Playoffs |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta Prediction
With the tie level and everything to play for, Atalanta’s quality should eventually tell. Sarri’s side have the passing volume, the defensive structure, and the individual quality to break down a Hapoel team that sits deep and relies on transitions. The bookmakers give Atalanta a 59% chance of winning this leg, and we think that’s roughly right.
The best value here is actually not on Atalanta to win outright, but on the match going under 2.5 goals. Both legs of this tie have been tactically cautious. Hapoel have conceded just twice in their last five matches and won’t suddenly open up. Atalanta under Sarri tend to be more controlled than explosive, and their last five games average under one goal per match scored. The conditions for a high-scoring game simply aren’t there.
Hapoel’s style is direct and disciplined. They’ve committed 30 fouls across five games, which is moderate, and earned 10 yellow cards, suggesting they’re prepared to be physical when needed. Their pass accuracy is low by design, reflecting a more direct approach. Atalanta, by contrast, have racked up 43 fouls and possess the ball far more fluently, with 2,506 passes at 90% accuracy. Sarri’s teams press high and recycle possession, which can create frustration for lower-ranked sides rather than instant openings. That dynamic points toward a tight, grinding contest.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Atalanta to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Hapoel Tel Aviv have been reasonably consistent over the past month, winning three of their last six with one loss and two draws. Their recent run includes a solid 2-0 win over GKS Katowice in the third qualifying round first leg, before dropping the second leg 1-2. They beat Kiryat Shmona 2-1 in a domestic fixture before the first leg against Atalanta ended goalless. The squad is compact and organized. Boateng and Stav Torial have been the main contributors in front of goal, and the team’s defensive shape has been reliable enough to frustrate opponents across multiple competitions. Assaf Tzur in goal has made 10 saves over five matches, showing he’s been tested but has held up.
Atalanta arrive in decent form. Four wins from their last six matches, with one draw and one loss. They beat Athletic Bilbao 1-0 and Schalke 3-0 in recent outings before a narrow 2-1 win over Sassuolo in their most recent match. The loss came against Feyenoord, a 1-2 result that was perhaps the only real blemish. The first leg against Hapoel, a 0-0, was an unusual result for a team with Atalanta’s firepower on paper, but it also reflects Sarri’s pragmatic approach in two-legged ties. Marco Carnesecchi has made 15 saves across four matches, suggesting he’s had work to do despite the team’s quality. Krstović and Raspadori form a functional forward partnership, though neither has been prolific enough to cause concern about Hapoel’s backline holding firm for one more leg.
🚨Check out our dedicated Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Atalanta the Favourite
- Moneyline Hapoel Tel Aviv 5.00 | Atalanta 1.57
- Draw 4.00
Atalanta at around 1.57 is short but honestly fair given the context. A team ranked 32nd in the world, managed by a tactically experienced coach, against a side ranked 692nd. Hapoel at 5.00 is decent value only if you believe they can nick a goal and defend for their lives, which is possible but unlikely over 90 minutes. The draw at 4.00 is the most interesting line here. If Atalanta don’t score early and the game becomes nervy, a second goalless draw leading to extra time or penalties is not a crazy outcome. We wouldn’t back it as a primary tip, but it’s not the worst live bet if Atalanta are struggling to break through after 60 minutes.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hapoel Tel Aviv Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Assaf Tzur
- DF: Fernand Mayembo, Chico, Marcus Coco, Doron Leidner
- MF: Andrian Kraev, Lucas de Oliveira Teodoro Falcão, Roee Alkokin
- FW: Omri Altman, Emmanuel Boateng, Stav Torial
Barda has been consistent with his selections across the last five matches. Assaf Tzur is the first-choice goalkeeper and has been solid. The back four of Mayembo, Chico, Coco, and Leidner has been the settled defensive unit, with Chico and Mayembo particularly active in interceptions. Midfield is anchored by Kraev and Lucas Falcão, with Alkokin offering a goal threat from deeper. Up front, Boateng and Torial are the most likely starters given their output. Omri Altman’s two assists make him a key creative figure. Hapoel will almost certainly set up in their familiar 4-3-3 and look to hit Atalanta on the counter.
Atalanta Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Marco Carnesecchi
- DF: Giorgio Scalvini, Odilon Kossounou, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Sead Kolašinac
- MF: Éderson José dos Santos, Gianluca Gaetano, Lazar Samardzic, Nicola Zalewski
- FW: Nikola Krstović, Giacomo Raspadori
Sarri is likely to deploy his 4-2-3-1 shape, with Éderson and Gaetano providing the midfield base. Scalvini has been involved in build-up play with one assist across recent matches and is a key figure in how Atalanta move the ball from the back. Kossounou has been one of the most active passers in the squad with 392 passes and exceptional accuracy. Zalewski and Samardzic offer creativity from wide and central positions respectively. Krstović leads the line, and Raspadori, despite picking up two yellow cards recently, remains a starter given his goal threat. Raoul Bellanova provides energy from the right side with seven interceptions across four games.
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Atalanta. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We think Atalanta will edge this one, probably 1-0 or 2-0. The first leg was a statement of Hapoel’s defensive organization, but doing it twice in a row against a team with Atalanta’s passing volume and pressing intensity is a big ask. Sarri will have studied the first leg carefully and made adjustments. Hapoel’s direct, transition-based approach worked in the first leg partly because Atalanta controlled possession without creating clear-cut chances, but over 180 minutes, that approach tends to crack.
The stat that stands out: Atalanta have 28 interceptions across their last five matches compared to Hapoel’s eight. That gap reflects how proactively Sarri’s team engages off the ball, which will make it harder for Hapoel to build through midfield. Hapoel’s 10 yellow cards in five games also suggest they’re prone to disciplinary issues under pressure, and a red card at any point would likely end the tie as a contest.
Our tip is Atalanta to win to nil, backed by the under 2.5 goals market as a secondary option. Atalanta’s defensive record is strong, Hapoel have scored just five times in five matches, and the tactical setup of both teams points to a low-scoring, controlled affair that Atalanta ultimately win without conceding.
