Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction: 26.05.2026 Israel State Cup Final

The Israel State Cup final brings together two of the country’s biggest clubs at Teddy Stadium. Hapoel Beer Sheva and Maccabi Tel Aviv have clashed repeatedly this season with high stakes, but this time, the silverware is on the line. The teams’ history suggests drama and goals, but what stands out is the recent momentum on Hapoel Beer Sheva’s side. Dor Peretz for Maccabi and Kings Kangwa for Beer Sheva have been pivotal for their teams, both turning up with goals and assists in key moments. The key stat to notice: Hapoel Beer Sheva scored 17 goals in their last 5 matches, a blistering attacking run that outpaces Maccabi Tel Aviv’s 11 over the same span. That firepower may be decisive.

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv prediction

We predict Hapoel Beer Sheva to lift the cup. The team has displayed superior form, with a higher win rate over the last 30 days (56% to Maccabi’s 44%) and more attacking output. Their recent 4-2 victory against this very opponent underlines the advantage. Maccabi Tel Aviv are not to be dismissed—they have individual talents like Dor Peretz, but their defense has shown gaps. Hapoel’s balance of attack and disciplined midfield gives them the edge.

Both squads play with intensity, but Hapoel Beer Sheva commit fewer fouls (86 vs 85) and receive fewer yellow cards (10 to Maccabi’s 13) in their last five matches. Hapoel Beer Sheva’s passing accuracy sits at 86%, higher than Maccabi’s 81%, hinting at better control under pressure. Both sides show attacking intent—expect high pressing and plenty of action in midfield, but Beer Sheva’s ability to create and convert chances may tilt the balance.

Team Analysis

Hapoel Beer Sheva come in on the back of a 2-5 demolition of Maccabi Haifa. Their attack looked relentless, with goals coming from multiple players, and Kangwa orchestrating in midfield. The defense occasionally left gaps, but with the attacking momentum they have, those risks are calculated. Earlier, they comfortably beat Maccabi Tel Aviv 4-2, showing a tactical edge and clinical finishing.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s recent form has dipped. Their last match was a 2-2 draw against struggling Hapoel Petah Tikva, a game that exposed defensive frailty. While Dor Peretz keeps delivering up front, the support from midfield and the back line has been inconsistent. Before that, a 2-4 loss to Beer Sheva highlighted the current gap between the sides.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Hapoel Beer Sheva the favourite

• Moneyline Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.90 | Maccabi Tel Aviv 3.40
• Draw 3.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 2.00
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.65 | No 2.10

Bookmakers make Hapoel Beer Sheva a clear favourite, with the lowest odds at 1.90 and the implied win probability at 48%. Their superior form and recent H2H results justify this. Maccabi Tel Aviv’s odds at 3.40 reflect their status as underdogs, and the draw at 3.60 signals the market expects an open contest. Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 is appealing given the attacking stats—this final shouldn’t be cagey. BTTS at 1.65 is logical considering both teams’ scoring patterns. We predict value lies on Hapoel Beer Sheva and goals markets.

Possible Starting Lineups

Hapoel Beer Sheva possible starting eleven

Marciano is the clear choice in goal, reliable and experienced. The back four has been the most used combination recently, offering balance and some attacking threat. In midfield, Kangwa’s form makes him the heartbeat, while Peretz and Elias provide energy and control. Up front, East, Zlatanović, and Ahmed have all scored recently—expect them to lead a 4-3-3. Watch Kangwa and East—both are difference-makers.

Maccabi Tel Aviv possible starting eleven

Melika has featured consistently as the main goalkeeper. The defense has stability with Asante, Shlomo, Camara, and Revivo—though they have shown vulnerability. Dor Peretz leads the midfield and attack, supported by Shahar and Noy. Andrade, Sahiti, and Abu Farhi round out a likely 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3. Dor Peretz is the main threat; the attack relies heavily on him.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict Hapoel Beer Sheva to win the 2025/26 Israel State Cup final. Their form, scoring rate, and recent wins over Maccabi Tel Aviv all point in the same direction. Expect goals from both sides, but Beer Sheva’s superior finishing and squad depth should be enough for victory.

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