Hamrun vs NSI Runavik Prediction: 16 July 2026 UEFA Conference League

This is the second leg of a UEFA Conference League 2026/27 First Qualifying Round tie, and it carries real weight. The first leg at NSI Runavik’s ground ended 1-1, meaning Hamrun host this decider at the Centenary Stadium in Marsa with everything still to play for. A Maltese club against a Faroese side in a two-legged European tie always carries a degree of uncertainty, and this second leg is no different. Hamrun, guided by Giacomo Modica, hold home advantage and will look to convert that into progression. NSI Runavik, under Sigurdur Ragnar Eyjólfsson, arrive knowing a draw or better sends them through on away goals or aggregate.

Keep an eye on Petur Knudsen for NSI Runavik. He is the only player in the available data across both squads who shows actual goal contributions, with two goals in his last two appearances alongside two yellow cards, making him both a threat and a disciplinary concern. For Hamrun, Matthew Guillaumier stands out as a midfielder who has logged full minutes in recent matches, providing the engine room stability Modica’s 4-3-3 setup depends on.

The hot stat from this tie: NSI Runavik generated 16 total shots across their last five matches compared to Hamrun’s 14, and they also racked up 10 corner kicks to Hamrun’s four. The Faroese side are more active in transition than the raw standings suggest.

Hamrun vs NSI Runavik Prediction

The first leg produced a 1-1 draw, and the pattern of this tie points toward another tight, low-scoring contest. Hamrun carry the bookmakers’ favour at home, with an average win probability of 59%, and that edge feels grounded. Playing on familiar turf in Malta with a full crowd behind them gives Modica’s side a real psychological lift. NSI Runavik, to their credit, held firm away from home in the first leg, but replicating that in a pressure second leg is a different challenge.

We predict a narrow Hamrun win. The Maltese side have won 13 of 24 matches this year and, though their last 30 days only show one match played, that was the first leg draw which showed they are not being overrun. NSI Runavik’s 67% win rate this year is impressive but comes largely against Faroese domestic opposition. Facing a European second leg away from home is a step up.

In terms of style, NSI Runavik’s 10 corner kicks from recent matches compared to Hamrun’s four tells a story about how aggressively they press forward. Their 4-4-2 shape pushes wide and generates set-piece situations. Hamrun’s 4-3-3 tends to be more compact, and their foul count and yellow card data from recent matches shows a relatively disciplined side. NSI Runavik collected four yellow cards in the same sample, with Petur Knudsen and Michał Przybylski each picking up two. That card accumulation could hurt them in a tight second leg if either player is forced off or suspended from a further caution.

Team Analysis

Hamrun come into this match off the back of a solid domestic run. Before the first leg against NSI Runavik, they beat Valletta 2-0, drew 1-1 with Marsaxlokk, dismantled Floriana 4-1, and beat Naxxar 3-0. That is four wins from five if you include the Floriana and Naxxar results, with the Marsaxlokk draw being the only minor blip. The 4-1 win over Floriana is particularly telling because Floriana are not a weak Maltese side, and putting four past them shows Hamrun can be clinical when the opportunity presents itself.

The first leg 1-1 draw away in the Faroe Islands was a fair result, and Hamrun will feel they left something on the table. At home, they should be more direct and confident going forward.

NSI Runavik’s recent form is worth respecting. Before the first leg, they beat Klaksvik 2-0, beat Streymur 1-0, lost 2-4 to Klaksvik in a separate fixture, and drew 3-3 with Skala Itrottarfelag. The 2-4 loss to Klaksvik is a concern as Klaksvik are the strongest club in the Faroe Islands, but the 2-0 win over the same opponent shows inconsistency rather than a structural problem. Streymur are a lower-ranked Faroese side, so that 1-0 win carries limited weight. The 3-3 draw with Skala shows a tendency to concede even against modest opposition.

Their away record in Europe will be tested here. Holding Hamrun to 1-1 in the first leg was a genuine achievement, but Runavik have shown they can leak goals when pressed.

🚨Check out our dedicated Hamrun vs NSI Runavik stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Hamrun the Favourite

• Moneyline Hamrun 1.55 | NSI Runavik 5.10
• Draw 3.80
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The odds paint a clear picture. Hamrun at around 1.55 reflect the home advantage and their superior domestic form this calendar year. NSI Runavik north of 5.00 is fair given they are a Faroese side playing a second leg away from home after only managing a draw in the first. The draw at 3.80 is tempting given how tight the first leg was, but we lean toward Hamrun to get the job done at home. The value, to be honest, is in backing Hamrun on the moneyline rather than chasing a draw or an upset.

Possible Starting Lineups

Hamrun Possible Starting Eleven

Hamrun are likely to line up in their preferred 4-3-3 shape. Francisco Célio da Paz Silva Filho is the established starter in goal with 180 minutes logged. Vincenzo Polito and Rafael Petrilio Compri form the defensive backbone, both playing the full duration of recent matches. Matthew Guillaumier is the key midfielder to watch, offering consistency and full-game presence. Damir Ceter leads the attack with Eder providing width and movement. Sven Xerri is available off the bench as a substitute option.

NSI Runavik Possible Starting Eleven

NSI Runavik operate in a 4-4-2 structure and Tom Amos is their first-choice goalkeeper based on playing time. Jann Benjaminsen and Daniel Obbekjaer anchor the defence, with Benjaminsen having contributed two assists recently, showing his involvement in build-up play. Petur Knudsen is the player to watch up front. He scored both of NSI Runavik’s goals across the last two matches but carries two yellow cards, so any early caution puts him in a dangerous position. Michał Przybylski operates alongside him and also sits on two bookings, meaning NSI Runavik’s attacking pair could be forced into cautious play at the worst possible moment.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

This second leg has the feel of a 1-0 or 2-1 Hamrun win. The Maltese side have home advantage, a more consistent domestic record, and a disciplined defensive structure. NSI Runavik showed enough quality in the first leg to suggest they will not simply collapse, and both teams scoring feels like a reasonable expectation given the first leg result.

The corner kick data is striking. NSI Runavik’s 10 corners from recent matches signals an aggressive, wide-focused approach that will push Hamrun back at times. We predict Hamrun to win 2-1, with the over 7.5 corners market also worth considering. NSI Runavik’s yellow card issues up front could force them to sit deeper than they would like, which may actually help Hamrun control the second half. Back Hamrun to win and both teams to score as the primary bet.

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