Alex MacQuoid
Hammarby host Anderlecht in the UEFA Europa League Second Qualifying Round on 23 July, and the tie is closer than many would expect given the Belgian club’s historical pedigree. Hammarby arrive in remarkably sharp domestic form, having won all four of their matches in the last 30 days, while Anderlecht have been inconsistent, dropping points in a draw and suffering a damaging 5-1 home loss to Royale Union SG not long ago. What makes this match genuinely interesting is that Anderlecht, a club with 34 European Cup appearances in their history, come in as the slight underdog according to average bookmaker probability. Henrik Rydström’s Swedish side have been clinical in front of goal, and that confidence will count for something in a one-legged European qualifier.
Montader Madjed is the name to watch for Hammarby. Three goals in his last three appearances, with a shot volume of 14 in that span, he is a constant threat and clearly the focal point of Rydström’s attack. For Anderlecht, the lack of detailed player data from their recent matches makes it harder to single out individuals, but under Jérémy Taravel the team has shown they can grind out results, most recently beating AZ Alkmaar 1-0 in what was a disciplined defensive display.
Hot stat: Hammarby have scored 8 goals across their last five matches, including a 4-0 dismantling of Degerfors and a 4-1 win over Hacken, averaging 1.6 goals per game during a run where they have conceded only twice in that same period.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | 3Arena, Stockholm |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Hammarby vs Anderlecht Prediction
Hammarby are the value pick here. Their 64% win rate across 25 matches this year is backed by genuine momentum, and playing at home in Stockholm in front of their own supporters adds another layer. Anderlecht’s 32% win rate from 28 matches in 2026 is a concerning number for a club of their size, and the 5-1 loss to Royale Union SG exposed real defensive vulnerabilities. We think Hammarby win this first leg, and the odds around 2.28-2.34 at most books represent genuine value given the home side’s form.
Hammarby’s style is direct and high-tempo. Their 59 total shots in five matches, combined with 19 corner kicks, suggests a team that generates sustained pressure rather than sitting back. They commit fouls at a moderate rate (31 in five games) and have kept yellow cards low at just 2, meaning they play aggressively but with discipline. Anderlecht, based on available data, have shown they can be organized defensively when needed, but their inconsistency in open play makes them vulnerable against a team that presses as relentlessly as Hammarby do. The Swedish side’s pass accuracy of around 89% (1708 accurate from 1916 total) points to a team comfortable in possession, which should help them dictate large stretches of this match.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hammarby to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Hammarby’s recent run is difficult to argue against. Four wins from four in the last 30 days, including a 4-0 win over Degerfors on the most recent matchday. Before that, a 2-0 win over Kalmar and a 2-1 victory against Elfsborg showed they can win tight games as well as comfortable ones. The only blemish in their slightly longer form window was a 0-2 loss to GAIS, which came earlier in the run and looks like an outlier given everything that followed. Paulos Abraham has been excellent alongside Madjed up front, contributing 3 goals and an assist across three appearances, and Victor Lind’s 2 assists add creative depth from a wide position.
Anderlecht’s picture is more complicated. The 1-0 win over AZ Alkmaar was a positive result, and the 3-2 victory over Nijmegen showed attacking capacity, but the 0-0 draw with Boulogne and the 1-5 collapse against Royale Union SG raise questions about their defensive reliability and mental consistency. Taravel’s side did recover to beat Sint Truidense 3-1, which at least suggests they can bounce back, but the gaps between their best and worst performances are too wide for comfort heading into a European qualifier. Three wins from their last five is respectable, but the manner of the Union SG loss will linger.
🚨Check out our dedicated Hammarby vs Anderlecht stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Hammarby the Favourite
- Moneyline Hammarby 2.28 | Anderlecht 2.78
- Draw 3.44
The market has Hammarby as a narrow favourite, which feels right. Pinnacle sitting at 2.33 for the home win is a decent reference point, and honestly the value is there given Hammarby’s form. Anderlecht at 2.78 is not outrageous given their European experience, but their 2026 win rate of 32% does not justify backing them at those odds with much confidence. The draw at 3.44 is the least interesting option here given how attacking Hammarby have been at home, and a draw feels like the outcome neither team is set up to produce right now.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hammarby Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Warner Hahn
- DF: Hampus Skoglund, Frederik Franck Winther, Noah Karl Anders Persson, Victor Eriksson
- MF: Nahir Besara, Tesfaldet Tekie, markus karlsson, Frank Junior Adjei
- FW: Montader Madjed, Paulos Abraham
Rydström has been consistent with his 4-2-3-1 shape across recent matches, and this lineup reflects the players who have featured most. Warner Hahn is the clear first-choice goalkeeper with 5 saves across three games. The back four picks itself based on minutes played, with Victor Eriksson likely to continue despite picking up a yellow card. In midfield, Tesfaldet Tekie and markus karlsson provide the engine, while Nahir Besara’s 94% pass accuracy makes him the most reliable distributor in the squad. Up front, the combination of Madjed and Abraham has been lethal, with 6 goals between them in three matches. Victor Lind, with 2 assists, is the most likely to come off the bench and change the game if needed.
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Anderlecht. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Hammarby win this. Four wins from four in the last month, 8 goals in five matches, a striker in Madjed who cannot stop scoring, and home advantage in Stockholm. Anderlecht bring European history but not European form right now. Their 32% win rate this year, the 5-1 loss to Union SG, and the 0-0 draw with Boulogne paint a picture of a team still searching for its best version under Taravel. We think Hammarby score at least twice and control large parts of this match through their high pass accuracy and pressing intensity. Anderlecht are not without threat, particularly in transition given their 4-1-3-2 setup, and a goal for the visitors is realistic, but the home side should have enough to take a first-leg advantage into the second qualifying round return. Our pick is Hammarby to win, both teams to score, and over 2.5 goals.
