Hajduk Split vs Rijeka Prediction: 22.02.2026 1. HNL Preview

Set at the iconic Stadion Poljud, Split, this 1. HNL regular season clash between Hajduk Split and Rijeka is poised to provide an insight into the title race dynamics. With both teams tracking different seasonal trajectories—Hajduk Split fighting for the top, Rijeka aiming to consolidate their position—the stakes are notable for European ambitions as well.

Among the players expected to have a decisive impact, keep a close watch on Hajduk’s forward Marko Livaja, whose experience and knack for movement in the final third stands out. Rijeka’s creative midfielder Tiago Dantas is instrumental as the link between midfield and attack, demonstrated by his recent contributions in goals and assists. In goal, both Toni Silic (Hajduk Split) and Martin Zlomislić (Rijeka) bring stability, ensuring defences remain hard to break down.

A standout stat to note: Rijeka registered 78 fouls in their last five matches—substantially above league average—pointing to a highly physical and disruptive approach, often breaking up opposition play and inviting set-piece opportunities.

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Hajduk Split vs Rijeka prediction

Taking into account recent form and statistical indicators, the best value prediction here leans towards a Hajduk Split win, though the high draw incidence and Rijeka’s counter-attacking threat cannot be ignored. Hajduk’s 60% win rate in the last 30 days, plus a home advantage at Poljud, tips the balance their way. Rijeka has only 1 win in their last 5 visits to Hajduk.

Tactically, Hajduk Split’s 4-2-3-1 seeks to dominate possession (pass accuracy: 85%), building through midfielders like Krovinović and Sigur, whose passing volume creates chances but also leaves gaps for turnovers. Their disciplined defence (47 fouls, only 8 yellow cards last 5) contrasts Rijeka’s more aggressive pressing (78 fouls, 9 yellows), potentially leading to more free kicks and dangerous set-piece situations. Expect a tight affair but with enough attacking intent and openness for goals—especially if Rijeka’s challenge for supremacy in midfield pays off.

Team Analysis

Hajduk Split approach this fixture on a reclamation curve, securing solid wins in their last two matches: 2-0 against Osijek and 2-0 versus Slaven Belupo. Their clean sheet run demonstrates defensive organisation and discipline, while Livaja’s return to scoring form provides attacking impetus. The solitary defeat to Gorica recently (0-1) exposed some vulnerability against fast transitions, something Rijeka may look to exploit. Importantly, Hajduk averages 66 shots in their last five games, signifying attacking intent and pressure.

Rijeka have lacked consistency—registering two wins, two draws, and a defeat in their last five matches. Most recently, they edged Omonia Nicosia 1-0, retained solidity in a 0-0 draw with Dinamo Zagreb, but suffered a home loss to Osijek (0-1). Dantas and Adu-Adjei are pivotal when it comes to breaking the lines, but Rijeka’s game irregularities often stem from excessive fouls and set-piece vulnerabilities. Their aggressive approach does create more interruptions, but also makes them susceptible to quick counters.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Hajduk Split vs Rijeka stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Hajduk Split the favourite

• Moneyline Hajduk Split 1.98 | Rijeka 3.70
• Draw 3.22
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.78 | Under 2.5 2.04
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.70 | No 2.00

The bookmakers’ odds reflect Hajduk Split’s strong home advantage and recent winning momentum, making them favourites at just under 2.00 on most markets. Rijeka, while competitive, are apparent underdogs at over 3.60. Value may be found in the over 2.5 goals market given both sides’ commitment to attack and recent head-to-head trends featuring multiple goals. Both teams finding the net looks probable—recent form and tactical setups strongly favour open play.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

Possible Starting Lineups

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My take on the Match

Given both teams’ statistical and tactical backgrounds, my pick for this match is a home win for Hajduk Split with both sides likely to score. The hosts’ possession-based approach, recent surge in form, and defensive balance should help them capitalise on Rijeka’s frequent fouling and set-piece exposure. However, Rijeka’s capacity to disrupt with physical midfield battles means Hajduk cannot afford lapses in concentration. Punters should look for boosted odds on combinations such as Hajduk Split win plus both teams to score at value prices.

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