Liam Duckstein
Hajduk Split host Pafos at Stadion Poljud in the UEFA Europa League 2026/27 Second Qualifying Round on 23 July 2026. The Croatian side enters this tie as the bookmakers’ slight favourite, backed by a dominant recent run that saw them win four of their last five matches. Pafos, meanwhile, arrive from Cyprus having won just one of their last four games, and their most recent outing ended in a 2-3 defeat to Slovan Bratislava. The Cypriot side’s coach Ricardo Sá Pinto is known for setting up compact, defensively minded teams, which could make Stadion Poljud a tighter affair than the home side’s supporters might hope.
Roko Brajkovic has been sharp for Hajduk Split, contributing both a goal and an assist across his two most recent appearances, making him the attacking player to watch under Gonzalo García’s system. For Pafos, the absence of any player data for this fixture means their lineup carries a degree of uncertainty, but Sá Pinto’s tactical discipline has historically been the team’s strongest asset.
Hot stat: Hajduk Split scored four goals in a single match against Shkendija and followed it up with three more goals across their next two European qualifying ties, showing their attack has been in consistent form heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Poljud, Split |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Hajduk Split vs Pafos Prediction
Hajduk Split’s home form and recent scoring output make them the logical pick to win this first leg. They beat Shkendija 4-0, edged past LNZ and Celje 1-0 each, and then beat Zilina 2-0 before losing the second leg 1-2. That last result shows they are not invincible, but their overall momentum at Stadion Poljud is strong. Pafos have lost two of their last four and failed to score in two of those games, which is a concern when facing a team with Hajduk’s attacking depth.
Hajduk accumulated 27 free kicks in their last recorded five-match period, which tells you they press aggressively and force opponents into defensive errors. Their 10 corner kicks in the same window underlines consistent offensive pressure. Pafos, with no available detailed stats for recent matches, are harder to read, but their results suggest a team that struggles to find consistency going forward. The 0-0 draw against Jablonec and the goalless outing against Jagiellonia point to a side that can be kept quiet.
We predict Hajduk Split to win and the match to stay under 2.5 goals. Both teams scoring looks unlikely given Pafos’s recent attacking struggles.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hajduk Split to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Hajduk Split have been in strong shape across their last five matches. They opened with a 4-0 demolition of Shkendija, then posted back-to-back 1-0 wins over LNZ and Celje, before beating Zilina 2-0 in the first leg of their qualifying tie. The most recent result, a 1-2 home loss to Zilina in the return leg, was a bump but did not derail their overall progress. Four wins from five across that run, with goals coming from multiple sources including Brajkovic, Van Hoorenbeeck, and Dalisson De Almeida Leite, shows the squad is not reliant on a single scorer. The 3-4-3 formation García favors gives them width and directness, and the set-piece record suggests they create danger from dead balls consistently.
Pafos arrive in a far less convincing state. Their last five matches produced one win, two draws, and two defeats. The 2-1 win over Cracovia was the only bright spot, sandwiched between a 0-0 stalemate with Jablonec and a 0-1 loss to Jagiellonia. The most recent outing, a 2-3 defeat to Slovan Bratislava, is the result that stings most. Pafos conceded three goals and could not hold a lead, which is a pattern Hajduk will look to exploit. Their 4-2-3-1 shape gives them structure, but without the attacking quality to punish opponents on the break, that structure can become purely defensive.
🚨Check out our dedicated Hajduk Split vs Pafos stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Hajduk Split the Favourite
- Moneyline Hajduk Split 2.15 | Pafos 3.27
- Draw 3.26
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds around 2.15 for Hajduk Split reflect the bookmakers’ view that this is an open contest, but the gap between the home side’s recent form and Pafos’s struggles suggests the Croatian side is undervalued at those prices. A team that has won four of its last five, scoring freely and keeping opponents quiet, deserves more confidence than a 43% implied probability. The draw at 3.26 is not without merit given the European context, but Pafos’s attacking output does not inspire belief that they can find the goal needed to force one.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hajduk Split Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Toni Silic
- DF: Mathieu Acapandie, Dario Marešić, Alec Van Hoorenbeeck, Simun Hrgovic, Dario Melnjak
- MF: Rokas Pukstas, Adrion Pajaziti, Dalisson De Almeida Leite
- FW: Roko Brajkovic, Michele Šego
Toni Silic takes the goalkeeper spot based on consistent playing time across the last two matches. The back line is built around Acapandie and Van Hoorenbeeck, both of whom have logged full minutes and contributed going forward, with Van Hoorenbeeck finding the net recently. Hrgovic brings an assist and aggressive presence from the left side of the three. In midfield, Pukstas and Pajaziti have both played the full 90 minutes in recent outings, with Dalisson providing a direct goal threat from a deeper role. Brajkovic leads the line after his goal and assist contribution, with Šego providing support. García is expected to stick with his 3-4-3 shape, which has served the team well throughout the qualifying campaign.
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Pafos. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Hajduk Split hold a clear edge in this first-leg tie. Their four wins from the last five matches, combined with a goal tally that includes a four-goal performance and back-to-back clean-sheet wins, puts them in a strong position at home. Pafos have managed just one win in four and failed to score in two of those games. Sá Pinto’s side will set up to be difficult to break down, but their lack of attacking threat makes a clean sheet for Hajduk a realistic target.
We predict a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Hajduk Split, with the home side controlling the tempo through their aggressive pressing and set-piece delivery. The best value bet is Hajduk Split to win to nil, supported by the under 2.5 goals market. Pafos simply do not carry enough firepower right now to punish a home side this well-organized and in-form.
