Guarani vs SER Caxias Prediction: 13.06.2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série C

Guarani host SER Caxias at the Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in what is a genuine top-of-the-table battle in the 2026 Série C. Both clubs sit in the top five with 18 and 15 points respectively, but the form gap is stark. Guarani have won four of their last five, while Caxias have gone two matches without a win. The notable inside angle here: the only previous meeting on record ended in a 2-0 Caxias win when bookmakers gave Guarani just 41% probability, so Jeff Strasser’s side has already demonstrated it can silence this crowd before.

Guarani’s attack has been the standout force in the division, scoring 20 goals in nine league games. Striker depth and quick transitions under Elio Sizenando make their forward line the key threat. For Caxias, their defensive organisation has been the foundation, conceding just six goals all season, and their ability to absorb pressure and counter will be tested here. The player to watch for Guarani is whoever leads the press in the 4-3-3, as Caxias have shown vulnerability against high-tempo sides. For the visitors, their central midfield pair will need to control tempo and disrupt Guarani’s rhythm.

Hot stat: Guarani have scored five goals in a single match twice in their last five games, putting up a 5-0 scoreline against both Amazonas FC and Maringa FC. No other team in the current Série C standings matches that attacking output over the same window.

Guarani vs SER Caxias Prediction

Guarani are the clear value pick at home. Their 80% win rate over the last 30 days, combined with a league-best 20 goals scored in nine games, points to a team in dominant form. Caxias, by contrast, have drawn four of their last six matches. They are defensively solid but lack the firepower to trouble Guarani at home, especially given the hosts’ pressing intensity in a 4-3-3 system.

Caxias average fewer than two goals per game across 25 matches this year, and their tendency to settle for draws away from home makes a low-scoring or one-sided result plausible. Their 0-0 against Barra and 1-1 against Sao Bernardo in recent weeks underline this pattern. Guarani, by contrast, have not drawn a single match in their last five. We predict a Guarani win with over 2.5 goals as the primary bet, backed by the home side’s prolific attack and Caxias’ passive away tendencies.

Caxias committed to a 4-4-2 in their last five, which compresses central space but leaves wider channels open, exactly where Guarani’s wide forwards thrive in the 4-3-3. Free-kick frequency and fouls will matter: Caxias tend to foul deliberately to break up play, which could generate set-piece opportunities for a Guarani side that has scored from range this season.

Team Analysis

Guarani have been in exceptional form, going W-W-W-L-W in their last five league outings. Their most recent match, a 5-0 demolition of Amazonas FC, was a statement result. Before that, they beat Barra 2-0 and Maringa FC 5-0, with the only blip being a 1-3 loss to Ituano. That defeat aside, Elio Sizenando’s side has scored 13 goals across four wins in this run, averaging over three per game. At home, they are the clear standard-setters in the division.

SER Caxias arrive with a more mixed picture. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W if you scroll back further, but the most recent run is D-D-W-D-W, with their latest result being a 2-1 win over Ituano. That win was their only non-draw in the last four matches. The 0-0 against Maranhao and 0-0 against Barra show a team that struggles to convert chances away from home. Jeff Strasser’s 4-4-2 is built to frustrate, but Guarani’s pace and volume of attacks will stretch that shape.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

There is only one recent head-to-head on record, a 2-0 Caxias win in the 2025 Série C Regular Season, where bookmakers had Guarani as slight favourites at 41%. That result shows Caxias can win here, but conditions and form have shifted considerably since then.

🚨Check out our dedicated Guarani vs SER Caxias stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Guarani the Favourite

• Moneyline Guarani 1.83 | SER Caxias 4.20
• Draw 3.10

The odds across bookmakers are fairly consistent, with Guarani priced between 1.70 and 1.88. The 50% implied win probability from bookmakers aligns with the form data. Caxias at 3.90–4.80 is a wide range, reflecting uncertainty about whether their defensive setup can stifle Guarani at home. The draw at 3.05–3.30 is tempting given Caxias’ recent draw-heavy run, but Guarani have not drawn in their last five matches, which makes the home win at 1.83 the more grounded option. To be honest, the value is in backing Guarani with goals rather than just the 1X2 market.

Possible Starting Lineups

Guarani Possible Starting Eleven

Guarani’s 4-3-3 has been consistent across their last five matches. The midfield trio provides both defensive cover and quick ball progression to the front three. Isaque and Caio Dantas on the flanks are the primary creative threats, combining pace with direct running. Régis in the middle is the player who dictates tempo and is worth watching given his role in breaking defensive lines. Ronaldo Alves anchors the centre-back pairing and will be key in dealing with any Caxias counter-attack.

SER Caxias Possible Starting Eleven

Jeff Strasser has favoured a structured 4-4-2 that prioritises defensive shape and transitions. Léo Gamalho is the focal point up front and poses an aerial threat on set pieces, which could be Caxias’ best route to goal here. The wide midfielders Vinicius Leite and Pará will be tasked with tracking Guarani’s full-backs. Renan Bressan adds European-style positional discipline in central midfield, and his ability to shield the defence will be tested by Guarani’s pressing intensity.

🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

The Verdict

Guarani are the pick here. Their attacking numbers across the last nine games, 20 goals, a league-high goal difference of +13, and four wins in the last five, make them the most complete side at this stage of the 2026 Série C. Caxias have shown they can grind results, but their draw-heavy recent form and limited away firepower suggest they will struggle to match Guarani’s output at the Brinco de Ouro.

We predict a Guarani win with over 2.5 goals. The home side’s press-heavy 4-3-3 against a Caxias 4-4-2 that concedes space on the wings is a favourable matchup. Perhaps the most telling indicator is Guarani’s scoring consistency at home, where they have not been held scoreless in any of their nine league matches. Caxias scoring is possible, particularly from a set piece or counter, but we lean toward the BTTS No outcome given Caxias’ tendency to absorb pressure rather than commit forward.

More useful links for football fans

• Gamble Responsibly
• Best Football Betting Websites
• How to Bet On Sports
• Sports Betting Glossary
• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG