Levi Rothermund
Beijing Guoan arrive in Guangzhou as clear favourites for this CFA Cup Round 4 clash, and the bookmakers are not shy about it. With a 58% win probability assigned to Nick Montgomery’s side, Guangzhou E-Power face a steep climb at home. What makes this match genuinely interesting is that Guangzhou have actually been in better recent form when you look at their season-long numbers, posting a 71% win rate across 14 matches compared to Beijing’s 43% from 21 games. The gap in squad quality is real, but form says something different.
Alexandru Tudorie is the name to watch for Guangzhou. The forward has scored twice and added an assist across his last three appearances, leading the team in shots with eight attempts. For Beijing, Fabio Abreu has been the most direct attacking threat with two goals and ten shots in just two matches. Both players carry genuine goal threat and could decide the tie on their own.
Hot stat: Guangzhou E-Power have scored six goals across their last five matches while conceding across a mixed run that includes a 3-4 loss to Yanbian Hailanjiang. Their attack is clearly functioning, but defensive exposure is a real concern at this level of competition.
| 🏆 Tournament: | CFA Cup 2026, Round 4 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Guangzhou Yuexiushan Stadium, Guangzhou |
| 🗓️ Date: | 19.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 13:30 CEST |
Guangzhou E-Power vs Beijing Guoan Prediction
Beijing Guoan are the pick here. The class difference between these two clubs is significant, and despite Guangzhou’s strong domestic season, their opponents have faced and beaten higher-ranked competition. Montgomery’s side beat Chongqing Tongliangloong 3-2 in their last outing and have the depth to rotate without losing much quality.
Guangzhou’s 5-4-1 setup is designed to stay compact and hit on the counter, but Beijing’s midfield pairing of Dawhan and Sai Erjini’ao both scored in recent games and control possession well. We think Beijing win this, but we would not be surprised to see Guangzhou nick a goal.
Guangzhou average 45 fouls across their last five matches, compared to Beijing’s 28. That aggression could generate dead-ball situations for Beijing, who have taken 36 free kicks over the same period. Guangzhou’s pass accuracy sits at 80%, which is respectable, but Beijing’s 80% comes with higher volume and better defensive positioning, averaging 19 interceptions to Guangzhou’s 29. The home side does win that battle, though it may not be enough given the overall quality gap.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Beijing Guoan to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Guangzhou E-Power have been in solid domestic form. Their most recent result was a 3-1 win over Heilongjiang Ice City, a comfortable performance against a side with a world ranking of 15,478. Before that, they were held 0-0 by Shenzhen Youth, which was their least convincing outing of the stretch. The 3-4 loss to Yanbian Hailanjiang earlier in the sequence raised questions about their defensive discipline, particularly given that Yanbian rank significantly lower on paper. Coach Feng Feng has built a team that scores freely but can be punished when gaps open up behind the midfield line.
Beijing Guoan’s recent form is more uneven. Their last match ended in a 3-2 win over Chongqing Tongliangloong, which was an encouraging result against a side ranked 19,716 globally. The match before that was a 1-2 defeat to Henan Songshan Longmen, which is arguably their most alarming result, losing to a team ranked 883. That result suggests Beijing can be vulnerable when they lack focus or rotate too heavily. A draw against Qingdao Youth Island and a 4-2 win over Qingdao Hainiu round out a mixed picture. Montgomery’s side has quality, but consistency has not been guaranteed across this cup run.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
There is only one recorded meeting between these sides in the available data, which is this fixture itself. The head-to-head table reflects the pre-match stats from that upcoming clash.
| Statistic | Guangzhou E-Power | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 6 | 4 |
| Total shots | 51 | 36 |
| Free kicks | 28 | 36 |
| Corner kicks | 18 | 12 |
| Total fouls | 45 | 28 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 80% | 80% |
| Interceptions | 29 | 19 |
| Offsides | 4 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Guangzhou E-Power vs Beijing Guoan stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Beijing Guoan the Favourite
- Moneyline Guangzhou E-Power 4.90 | Beijing Guoan 1.62
- Draw 3.80
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The Bovada line at 1.62 for Beijing Guoan is fair given the squad quality difference, though it offers limited value on its own. Guangzhou at 4.90 is tempting given their form, but we would not back them outright to win. The draw at 3.80 is interesting if you believe Guangzhou’s defensive setup can frustrate Beijing for 90 minutes, which is honestly possible given their 5-4-1 structure. Honestly, the better play is on the match producing goals rather than backing a specific winner at these prices.
Possible Starting Lineups
Guangzhou E-Power Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Xiao Jiaqi
- DF: Han Xuan, Liao Junjian, Liu Langzhou, Liu Bin, Wang Chien-ming
- MF: Maycon Vinícius, Hou Yu, Wang Junjie, Xiao Kun
- FW: Alexandru Tudorie
This 5-4-1 shape reflects Guangzhou’s most used formation across recent matches. Liao Junjian and Han Xuan anchor the back five and have logged consistent minutes. Maycon Vinícius is the engine in midfield with 124 passes and nine shots across three games. Alexandru Tudorie leads the line and is the most likely source of a goal for the hosts. He is the player Beijing’s backline will need to manage most carefully.
Beijing Guoan Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Hou Sen
- DF: Guilherme Ramos, Wang Gang, Bai Yang, Yue Tze-Nam
- MF: Boubacar Konte, Dawhan, Sai Erjini’ao, Zhang Xizhe
- FW: Fabio Abreu, Zhang Yuning
Montgomery has been running a 4-4-2 and this lineup reflects that. Guilherme Ramos has been one of Beijing’s most active defenders with 139 passes and four free kicks earned. Boubacar Konte provides the defensive midfield cover with five interceptions and 114 passes. Fabio Abreu and Zhang Yuning form the strike partnership, and Abreu in particular has been clinical with two goals and ten shots in two appearances. Sai Erjini’ao and Dawhan both contributed goals recently and give this midfield genuine attacking output from deep.
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Beijing Guoan. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Beijing Guoan should win this, and we are backing them to do so. The squad depth, the individual quality of Fabio Abreu, and Montgomery’s tactical setup all point toward a visiting win at Guangzhou Yuexiushan Stadium. Guangzhou will make it uncomfortable. Their foul count is high, their defensive block is organised, and Tudorie can punish any defensive lapse. We think this ends 1-2 or 0-2 to Beijing, with goals coming on both sides a genuine possibility. Back Beijing Guoan to win and both teams to score for a combined outcome that reflects the actual shape of this tie.
