Guadeloupe vs Guatemala Predictions: Odds and betting tips for CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 Match - 25.06.2025

As Group C of the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2025 reaches its pivotal stage, BBVA Stadium in Houston sets the scene for an intriguing clash between Guadeloupe and Guatemala. Scheduled for 25 June 2025 at 02:00 CEST, this encounter is more than a group fixture—it is a critical juncture for both teams in their pursuit of a top-two finish. Guadeloupe, under the stewardship of Jocelyn Angloma, faces a must-win scenario, having yet to register a point in the group. Their rivals, led by the experienced Luis Fernando Tena, sit level on points with Jamaica and are eager to cement their knockout stage credentials. The atmosphere at this Texan venue promises intensity and drama, with national pride and tournament survival at stake.

Fans should keep a close watch on Guadeloupe’s dynamic midfielder Jordan Leborgne, whose ability to break defensive lines with incisive runs and timely goals could prove vital. For Guatemala, Oscar Santis stands out—his recent clinical finishing and creative spark have driven his team’s attack and offered a consistent threat to opposing backlines. A fascinating battle between these two talents may well shape the outcome.

Notably, Guatemala’s impressive defensive discipline comes into the spotlight: in their last five matches, they have accumulated just 6 yellow cards compared to their opponent’s 4, but their interception count (28) is more than double that of Guadeloupe (13), spotlighting an aggressive but clean approach in recovering possession.

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Guadeloupe vs Guatemala predictions

Me best bet: Guatemala to win.

Guatemala’s recent form demonstrates a level of resilience and tactical adaptability that Guadeloupe has thus far lacked in this tournament. With a victory already secured against Jamaica and a narrow 0-1 loss to group leaders Panama, the Chapines have proven their defensive solidity and their ability to edge out tight contests. Conversely, Guadeloupe has struggled at both ends of the pitch, conceding seven goals in their last two group fixtures while netting just three in total. The physicality and pace from both sides are noteworthy, but Guatemala’s organization and transition play under Tena’s guidance offer the highest value for this fixture.

In stylistic terms, Guadeloupe tends towards direct play, relying on midfield surges and sporadic pressing. Their numbers—21 total fouls and 4 yellow cards in the last five—hint at occasional rashness and risk-taking high up the pitch. Guatemala, meanwhile, balances controlled aggression (44 fouls, 6 yellow cards in 5 matches) with better ball possession and distribution: they attempt nearly double the passes of Guadeloupe and maintain a stronger pass accuracy (1196 accurate passes at 83.2 percent). This superior control is likely to starve Guadeloupe of meaningful possession, shaping the tempo and flow decisively in Guatemala’s favor.

Prop picks by me:

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Guadeloupe vs Guatemala Most recent H2Hs

When reviewing recent head-to-heads, Guatemala’s edge in both defensive stability and set-piece proficiency is evident, with a greater number of corners and interceptions. Guadeloupe, however, demonstrates promise by converting high-press situations into dangerous shot opportunities—though at the cost of defensive solidity.

🚨Read our full Guadeloupe vs Guatemala stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Guatemala’s Oscar Santis has scored 4 goals in his last 4 matches.
• Guadeloupe averages 15 total shots per game, but a conversion rate of only 10 percent.
• Guatemala has kept clean sheets in 2 out of their last 5 fixtures.
• Both teams have not recorded a red card in their most recent five matches.
• The pass accuracy for both teams remains robust, hovering over 83 percent.

Guadeloupe vs Guatemala score prediction: 0-2

Expect Guatemala to control the tempo through their double pivot in midfield, cutting supply lines to Guadeloupe’s forwards and capitalizing on transition play. Oscar Santis is poised to unlock the defense with his incisive movement, while the backline, led by Nicolás Samayoa, should neutralize Guadeloupe’s sporadic attacking flurries. The dual threat of direct play and clinical counter-attacks suggests Guatemala will secure a professional, measured 2-0 victory, consolidating their advance to the knockout stages.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Guatemala the favourite

The odds demonstrate a clear, albeit moderate, favoritism toward Guatemala, reflecting both teams’ contrasting tournament performances and defensive records. The short odds for under 2.5 goals underscore expectations of a tense, low-scoring contest, while the likelihood of both teams scoring remains distant, aligned with the defensive solidity displayed by Guatemala and Guadeloupe’s recent struggles in attack.

Guadeloupe vs Guatemala Over/Under Analysis

• Guadeloupe’s last 2 group matches: both finished under 3.5 goals.
• Guatemala averages just 1 goal per game in Group C.
• Neither team has seen more than 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches.
• Weather and pitch conditions in Houston may support lower scoring, more controlled play.

Guadeloupe Preview

Guadeloupe enters this match at a crossroads, having lost both previous Group C games—2-5 against Panama and 1-2 against Jamaica. The defeat to Panama illustrated defensive frailties, as Guadeloupe struggled to contain rapid transitions and wide play, while their loss to Jamaica highlighted issues in their ability to respond under pressure. Despite spirited individual efforts, notably from midfielder Jordan Leborgne and forward Thierry Ambrose, the team’s lack of cohesion and defensive stability has been exposed against higher-ranked opposition. Their reliance on quick bursts through midfield and set-piece situations remains their principal attacking threat, though overall, the side has looked tentative and inconsistent.

Guadeloupe possible starting eleven

• GK: Davy Rouyard
• DF: Jérôme Roussillon, Junior Senneville, Dimitri Cavaré, Nathanaël Saintini
• MF: Jordan Leborgne, Ange-Freddy Plumain, Zoran Christophe Moco, Anthony Baron, Noah Cadiou
• FW: Thierry Ambrose

Guatemala Preview

Guatemala’s campaign so far has been characterized by pragmatic efficiency. A narrow 0-1 loss to Panama was preceded by an impressive 1-0 victory over Jamaica, showcasing the team’s resilience and tactical structure. Oscar Santis’ influence in the final third has been nothing short of pivotal, providing both goals and creative impetus, while defender Nicolás Samayoa anchors a disciplined backline. In their previous outings, Guatemala combined robust midfield screening with effective ball retention, recording nearly twice as many passes as Guadeloupe and a high level of pass accuracy. Their pattern of high interceptions and excellent set-piece execution gives them a concrete advantage in tight, low-scoring matches—qualities that are likely to surface again at BBVA Stadium.

Guatemala possible starting eleven

• GK: Nicholas Hagen Godoy
• DF: José Pinto Samayoa, Nicolás Samayoa, Jorge Morales, Aaron Herrera
• MF: Rudy Josué Muñoz Boteo, Rodrigo Saravia, Oscar Santis, Olger Armando Escobar Real, Jonathan Francisco Franco González
• FW: D. Lom

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As Tips.GG experts, our leading pick is a Guatemala victory, driven by their tactical coherence, superior defensive metrics, and the game-changing potential of Oscar Santis in attack. While Guadeloupe’s tenacity is sure to provide moments of resistance, a combination of lower possession, fewer creative passages, and lapses under pressure positions Guatemala firmly as the favorites. According to our dedicated AI prediction engine, Guatemala carries a 44 percent win probability, with Guadeloupe at 30 percent and a draw at 26 percent.

How to watch Guadeloupe vs Guatemala

• When? 25 June 2025, 02:00 CEST
• Where? BBVA Stadium, Houston
• How to watch: Check official CONCACAF Gold Cup broadcasters and international streaming platforms for live coverage.
• Favorite: Guatemala

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