Groningen vs Volendam Prediction: 13.12.2025 Eredivisie 2025/26 Preview

As the Eredivisie calendar moves towards the festive period, Groningen hosts Volendam at the Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium for a tie that’s set to be a critical juncture in both sides’ seasons. Though Groningen appear the bookies’ clear favourites, there’s a fascinating subplot brewing: despite their modest placement, Volendam have shown themselves to be stubborn opponents, frequently disrupting teams’ rhythms away from home. Both managers, Dick Lukkien for Groningen and Rick Kruys for Volendam, are under pressure to squeeze more consistency out of their respective squads in this crucial phase of the campaign.

Eyes will especially be on Groningen’s Thom Van Bergen, whose recent form and predatory instincts in front of goal have been crucial to his club’s attacking output. His direct running and clinical finishing could tip the scales. Volendam, meanwhile, rely on Robert Muhren’s veteran savvy up top – even when goals have dried up, his intelligent movement and knack for popping up in timely moments keep opposition defenders nervy.

One “hot stat” leaps out from recent weeks: Groningen have outshot their opponents nearly 2.5 to 1 in their last five, registering 76 total shots to Volendam’s 34. This attacking intent reflects a key stylistic edge heading into this encounter.

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Groningen vs Volendam prediction

Given Groningen’s superior run in the standings (6th vs 15th), a higher attacking output, and home advantage, backing the hosts is the sound statistical play. However, Volendam’s recent results away from home – including a cagey 1-1 with Twente and a battling 2-1 win at NAC Breda – signal that they can frustrate stronger sides with their compact setup and quick counter-attacking bursts.

Both sides favour the 4-2-3-1, but Groningen’s tendency to dominate the ball (over 1,500 passes in their last five, with a respectable pass accuracy of 83.6%) could see them dictate tempo. Discipline, though, poses a concern: Groningen have racked up 30 fouls in that same spell plus a red card, compared to just 16 for Volendam. Expect the referee’s whistle to be busy, and the potential for cards to influence the balance late on. Volendam, less prolific in attack and reliant on set-pieces, will look to punish sloppy plays but might lack the consistency to do so for the full 90 minutes.

Team Analysis

Groningen produced a crucial 2-0 win over Excelsior in their most recent outing – a match that highlighted their ability to bounce back from adversity after shipping six against Hamburger SV in a friendly just a week earlier. Van Bergen was electric, netting three in his last three, and midfielder Stije Resink showed creative verve with a goal and an assist. Defensively, there’s room for improvement – conceding twice to PEC Zwolle and being breached by Ajax and Nijmegen before that indicates residual fragility, but at home Groningen remain a different proposition entirely.

Volendam’s 2-3 defeat to Nijmegen tells a story of a squad still battling for coherence. Muhren’s effort kept them ticking but the side struggled for creativity, notching only three goals in their last five outings. They showed admirable grit in their dogged point against Twente and an assertive victory over NAC Breda, but remain inconsistent, sometimes letting matches slip in the crucial closing stages. Defensively they’ve kept things relatively tidy in terms of cards and fouls, though their attack lacks bite, and conceding three to Nijmegen with minimal attacking threat offers cause for concern for manager Rick Kruys.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Groningen vs Volendam stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Groningen the favourite

• Moneyline Groningen 1.44 | Volendam 7.10
• Draw 4.90
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.89 | Under 2.5 2.01
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.08 | No 1.82

The bookies firmly back Groningen, reflecting their higher league standing, superior attacking stats, and home record. Odds north of 7.00 for Volendam show little faith in an away upset, which makes sense given their lack of goals and defensive frailty lately. The Under 2.5 is slightly favoured, hinting at a potentially tight, low-scoring affair – a sensible stance given both teams’ recent struggles finding the net against top-ten opposition.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Groningen possible starting eleven

• GK: Etienne Vaessen
• DF: Thijmen Blokzijl, Marco Rente, Marvin Peersman, Dies Janse
• MF: Tika de Jonge, Stije Resink
• FW: Thom Van Bergen, Noam Emeran, Jorg Schreuders, Younes Taha El Idrissi

Groningen are set to continue with their preferred 4-2-3-1. Vaessen has been reliable between the sticks since returning, while Blokzijl, Rente, Peersman, and Janse offer consistency at the back. Resink’s dynamism in midfield will couple well with de Jonge’s distribution. Van Bergen, the current talisman, will lead the charge – his pace and movement off the left remain their sharpest offensive weapon. Expect high pressing and direct play, especially with El Idrissi and Emeran supporting just behind the striker.

Volendam possible starting eleven

• GK: Kayne Van Oevelen
• DF: Yannick Leliendal, Xavier Mbuyamba, Deron Payne, Mawouna Amevor
• MF: Nordin Bukala, Gibson Osahumen Yah
• FW: Brandley Kuwas, Ozan Kokcu, Aurelio Oehlers, Robert Muhren

Volendam should stick to their own 4-2-3-1, seeking to clog the midfield with Bukala and Yah providing tackling and distribution. Oehlers and Kuwas will attempt to add penetration from wide areas, while Kokcu’s creativity remains vital to unpicking Groningen’s lines. Muhren up front will lead the line, relying on experience and guile over pace. Don’t expect all-out attack – Volendam must stay compact and make the most of any defensive lapses or set-pieces.

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My take on the Match

All signs point to a home win for Groningen, but this fixture may ultimately hinge on how well Volendam’s defensive organisation holds up against Van Bergen’s relentless movement. If Groningen grab an early goal, the visitors could unravel; if Volendam hold firm deep into the first half, frustrations may rise and tactical fouling could slow play down. My main pick? Groningen to prevail, likely by a one-goal margin, with Under 2.5 Goals standing out as a shrewd secondary market. Expect a tense, attritional affair punctuated by moments of individual quality – precisely the kind of contest that so often defines Eredivisie battles in December.

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