Levi Rothermund
Regular season Eredivisie games are rarely straightforward, but this matchup at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium holds extra intrigue. Groningen, currently 9th, hosts 14th-placed Excelsior. Both have struggled for wins this year, but Excelsior recently showed a sudden goal surge, putting five past Utrecht. Groningen’s defensive shape, led by Thijmen Blokzijl, faces a real test. On the flip side, Excelsior’s Derensili Sanches Fernandes is in scoring form and worth close attention. Neither side can claim strong momentum, but with both showing flashes, the contest could swing on small details.
A standout detail: Excelsior has racked up seven goals across their last five games despite only a single win. Groningen, meanwhile, have managed just three in the same span. The contrast in finishing efficiency is stark and might tip the balance.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Eredivisie 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium, Groningen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 02.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:45 CEST |
Groningen vs Excelsior prediction
Best value lies with a Groningen win. The bookmakers set Groningen as clear favourites, pricing them as low as 1.65 on the moneyline. Excelsior’s away form offers little confidence: only two wins in 15 matches this year, and just one in their last five outings. Groningen’s home defense is usually organized, with Dick Lukkien’s side conceding just three goals in their last three at home. Excelsior’s recent five-goal performance against Utrecht looks like an outlier, considering they scored only once in their previous three matches.
Both sides show a tendency for fouls and interruptions: Groningen and Excelsior combined for 63 fouls and five yellow cards in their last five games. Possession is often scrappy, with neither side boasting top-tier pass accuracy (Groningen 80.7%, Excelsior 79.8%). Expect plenty of midfield battles, with transitions and set pieces playing a big part in how chances are created. Corners should be plentiful as both teams struggle to convert open play, leading to more balls played into the box.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Over 9.5 corners |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Groningen’s last match ended in a 1-3 defeat to Feyenoord. While Feyenoord dominated possession and carved out more shots, Groningen struggled to transition from defense to attack. Thom Van Bergen, tasked with sparking forward play, had limited impact. The team looked compact defensively but lacked bite in the final third. Earlier, a 0-0 draw with GA Eagles and a 2-0 win over Telstar showed Groningen’s preference for methodical buildup but also their struggle to convert possession into goals.
Excelsior arrives off a 5-0 thrashing of Utrecht, which broke a run of low-scoring, inconsistent performances. Sanches Fernandes, who bagged three goals in his last three, is emerging as the danger man. Yet, before Utrecht, Excelsior drew twice and lost heavily to Nijmegen, revealing issues with consistency and defending in transition. Their attack looks lively in bursts but can easily be blunted by disciplined defending.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Groningen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0 |
| Total shots | 58 | 42 |
| Free kicks | 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks | 23 | 7 |
| Total fouls | 30 | 33 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 80.7 | 79.8 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 26 |
| Offsides | 4 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Groningen vs Excelsior stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Groningen the favourite
- Moneyline Groningen 1.65 | Excelsior 4.60
- Draw 4.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.75
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.85 | No 1.85
Bookmakers have Groningen as solid favourites. The odds reflect Groningen’s home stability and Excelsior’s shaky away form. There’s little value in backing the underdog unless Excelsior replicates their Utrecht performance. Over/Under splits the market, but with both teams averaging low goals per match, Under 2.5 at 1.75 appeals more. The BTTS market sits evenly, but recent defensive displays and Excelsior’s inconsistency point towards ‘No’ as a sensible call. We think home win and under 2.5 goals is the smart combo for value.
Possible Starting Lineups
Groningen possible starting eleven
- GK: Etienne Vaessen
- DF: Thijmen Blokzijl, Marco Rente, Marvin Peersman, Dies Janse
- MF: Tika de Jonge, Tygo Land, Travis Hernes
- FW: Thom Van Bergen, Jorg Schreuders, Younes Taha El Idrissi
Groningen’s lineup sticks with a 4-2-3-1, keeping their core defenders and versatile midfield. Vaessen has been consistent in goal. Blokzijl and Rente provide stability at the back. Tika de Jonge and Tygo Land handle the midfield transitions, with Van Bergen and Schreuders expected to threaten out wide. Janse’s recent attacking contributions from fullback make him one to watch. Younes Taha El Idrissi will look for spaces behind Excelsior’s backline. Groningen rarely tinkers with formation under Lukkien, so expect a methodical, patient approach.
Excelsior possible starting eleven
- GK: Stijn van Gassel
- DF: Arthur Zagre, Casper Widell, Ilias Bronkhorst, Rick Meissen
- MF: Noah Naujoks, Lennard Hartjes, Adam Carlen
- FW: Derensili Sanches Fernandes, Gyan de Regt, Szymon Wlodarczyk
Excelsior’s 4-2-3-1 will likely see van Gassel back in goal, with Widell and Zagre anchoring the backline. Naujoks and Hartjes have provided energy in midfield, while Sanches Fernandes is Excelsior’s main attacking threat. De Regt supplies assists and movement, while Wlodarczyk offers a physical edge up front. Ruben den Uil’s team often looks to spring quick counters, relying on Fernandes’ pace and Meissen’s overlapping runs. Expect more direct play, especially if chasing the game.
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Groningen. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think Groningen’s discipline and home edge should be enough for three points. Excelsior’s big win last out is impressive, but their inconsistency away can’t be ignored. Expect a low-scoring, tactical match with Groningen grinding out a 1-0 or 2-0 result. The over on corners makes sense given both teams’ direct attacking patterns and reliance on set pieces. Value sits with Groningen and under 2.5 goals.
