Alex MacQuoid
Two clubs from very different footballing worlds meet in this July friendly, with AEK Athens bringing considerably more pedigree into the encounter. The Greek side, ranked 70th globally compared to Groningen’s 346-place lower standing, arrives having gone unbeaten in their last two outings — a 0-0 draw with Vitesse and a 2-1 win over De Graafschap. Groningen, under Dick Lukkien, managed a decent 3-2 win over Emmen in their most recent match but lost to Heracles 1-2 just days before that, which tells a story about their inconsistency at this stage of preseason. The gap in class is real, and AEK’s Marko Nikolic will know it going in.
One player to watch for AEK Athens is whoever lines up in their attacking third — the Greeks have scored in four of their last five matches, including wins against Panathinaikos and De Graafschap. For Groningen, the player to keep an eye on is whoever leads the press in midfield; their 3-2 win over Emmen showed they can create and convert, but they’ll need to be more disciplined defensively against a side of AEK’s quality. Honestly, the Greek side’s ability to grind out results against fellow Greek top-flight opponents like Olympiacos (1-1) and PAOK (1-1) shows a certain resilience that a Dutch second-tier side will find hard to match.
Hot stat: AEK Athens have scored in all five of their preseason matches this July, netting at least once against every opponent they’ve faced — including draws with Olympiacos and PAOK, two of Greece’s most competitive clubs.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026 — July Phase |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 14:00 CEST |
Groningen vs AEK Athens Prediction
AEK Athens are the clear pick here. The difference in world ranking is substantial, and the Greeks have shown they know how to win preseason games without overextending. Their form across the last 30 days — one win and one draw from two matches — suggests a settled squad that is building steadily, while Groningen’s record over the same period is a win and a loss, with the loss coming against Heracles, a side ranked far lower than AEK. Over the whole year, AEK have won 50% of their 24 matches; Groningen sit at 33% from 21 games.
We think AEK Athens win this comfortably. Their recent results against Olympiacos and PAOK — two sides that would comfortably beat Groningen — show they are operating at a level above what Dick Lukkien’s side can handle right now. Groningen did show some attacking spark in the Emmen win, but that was against low-level opposition. Expect AEK to control possession and find the net at least once, possibly twice.
Groningen’s preseason form has been uneven — three losses, one win, one draw across their last five matches — and while the 3-2 Emmen result showed some attacking intent, their defensive shape has been porous. AEK, by contrast, have looked disciplined, winning their last two friendlies and conceding just once across those games. We like AEK to win and both teams to score feels less certain given how Groningen have struggled defensively against better opponents.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | AEK Athens to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 3.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Groningen’s preseason has been a mixed bag. They beat Nijmegen 2-1, then Ajax 0-2 — a loss that showed the limits of where this squad currently is. The win over Emmen (3-2) was encouraging for the attackers, but conceding twice to a side ranked 1,663rd in the world is a warning sign. The 1-2 defeat to Heracles just days before the Emmen win adds to the picture of a team that hasn’t found consistency yet. Coach Dick Lukkien will have work to do on the defensive organization before the competitive season begins. Groningen have played five matches this preseason and lost three of them, which is a concerning pattern heading into a match against Greek top-flight opposition.
AEK Athens come into this match in considerably better shape. Their July has featured five matches, with wins over De Graafschap and Panathinaikos bookending draws against Olympiacos and PAOK — results that would be respectable even in competitive Greek Super League football. The most recent outing, a goalless draw with Vitesse, might look flat on paper but it came against a Dutch side and suggests Nikolic is rotating and managing loads carefully. The 2-1 win over Panathinaikos earlier in the month was perhaps the most telling result; beating a direct domestic rival in preseason carries real weight in terms of squad confidence. AEK have scored in every single fixture this July and have conceded only three times in five games.
🚨Check out our dedicated Groningen vs AEK Athens stats page for more info.
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AEK Athens. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We are backing AEK Athens to win this friendly, and maybe even to keep a clean sheet. The Greeks have been the more disciplined and consistent side throughout preseason, and facing a Groningen team that has conceded eight goals in five matches, they have a real opportunity to control the game from start to finish. Groningen’s attack has moments — the Emmen win proved that — but AEK’s defensive record of just three conceded in five games is a genuine strength here.
Nikolic’s side has already beaten Panathinaikos and De Graafschap, drawn with Olympiacos and PAOK, and shown that they rotate without losing cohesion. Groningen, by contrast, lost to Ajax, lost to Heracles twice across their recent schedule, and only managed wins against lower-ranked opposition. The quality gap is real. AEK Athens win, under 3.5 goals total, and both teams to score landing on “No” are the picks we feel most confident about heading into Saturday.
