Gremio vs Santos Prediction: 24.05.2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026

Gremio and Santos meet at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre for a direct clash at the bottom end of the table. Both sides hold 18 points from 16 matches, sitting 15th and 17th respectively, and the need for three points grows. Gremio’s home advantage and more effective recent run, including a dominant 3-0 Copa do Brasil win, add intrigue. Expect attacking intent from both sides, as goals have been frequent in their recent fixtures. Martin Braithwaite’s sharp finishing for Gremio and Neymar’s creative spark for Santos headline this match, with both players recently influencing outcomes for their teams. The “hot stat” ahead of this match: Gremio have scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches, with Braithwaite netting 4—more than any other player from either squad in this period.

Gremio vs Santos prediction

We predict a home win for Gremio. Gremio hold a better win rate over the last month (56%) and have found the net more often, averaging 1.8 goals per match in their last five outings. Braithwaite’s form gives them a focal point up front, while Francis Amuzu and Willian add pace and directness. Santos have struggled for wins (22% winrate in their last nine), relying heavily on Neymar’s moments of inspiration and Gabriel Bontempo’s movement. Both teams average high shot counts (Gremio 46, Santos 55 in last five), but Santos’ accuracy and end-product lag behind. Gremio’s solid passing structure and slightly tighter defense tip the scale.

In terms of style, both teams play 4-2-3-1, but Gremio’s midfield duo shield the backline well and allow for quick transitions. Santos, meanwhile, commit more fouls (Santos 66, Gremio 68 in five matches) and see more yellow cards (Santos 14, Gremio 12), which could disrupt their rhythm. Neither team racks up excessive red cards, but with both sides aggressive in midfield, expect physical duels and set-piece opportunities. Gremio’s slightly better pass accuracy (Gremio 68%, Santos 66%) may help them control key phases.

Team Analysis

Gremio enter the match after a commanding 2-0 win over Palestino, displaying attacking intent and defensive control. Braithwaite scored again, confirming his status as the main threat. Before that, a 1-1 draw with Bahia and a comprehensive 3-0 over Confianca showed the team’s ability to create chances and convert them. Gremio have mixed results against stronger sides, but their home form remains a foundation. The passing accuracy and midfield balance, especially from Erick Noriega and Gabriel Mec, help keep the team cohesive in transitions and pressing.

Santos’ last match ended 2-2 with San Lorenzo, a game where Neymar was pivotal. Prior, they were thrashed 0-3 by Coritiba but responded with a 2-0 victory against the same team in a tight sequence. The attack, led by Neymar and Gabriel Bontempo, creates volume but not always efficiency. Draws have been frequent for Santos (6 in last 9), reflecting their difficulty in closing games out. Their defense, while not porous, is often exposed by quick transitions and set plays. The midfield’s inability to control games shows in their possession stats and frequent bookings.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Gremio vs Santos stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Gremio the favourite

• Moneyline Gremio 2.21 | Santos 3.40
• Draw 3.25
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.17 | Under 2.5 1.70
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.80

Bookmakers make Gremio the clear favourite at home. Odds above 2.2 reflect their inconsistent season but also highlight a strong home record and recent upturn. Santos’ price over 3.4 mirrors their struggles to turn possession into points. The Over 2.5 goals market is attractively priced, in line with both teams’ recent attacking form and leaky defences. BTTS is nearly evens, reflecting a high probability of goals on both sides.

Possible Starting Lineups

Gremio possible starting eleven

Weverton is the reliable pick in goal. Defense features experience in Rocha and Kannemann, with Viery and Leonardo supporting. Noriega and Mec bring ball-winning and passing, while Pérez links midfield and attack. Up front, Amuzu’s pace, Braithwaite’s finishing, and Willian’s creativity can break down Santos. Expect the familiar 4-2-3-1, which has delivered balance for Gremio lately.

Santos possible starting eleven

Diogenes retains the gloves after a string of starts. Escobar and Vinicius provide width and defensive solidity, Frías and Veríssimo anchor the line. Oliva and Arão cover ground in midfield; Bontempo, Rollheiser, Neymar, and Barbosa provide attacking options. Neymar drifts centrally to influence play. Santos will likely mirror Gremio’s 4-2-3-1, betting on Neymar’s individual quality to create openings.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict Gremio to take all three points, driven by Braithwaite’s efficiency and a better tactical setup at home. The game should be open, with goals for both teams, but Gremio’s cutting edge and slightly more disciplined approach will prevail. Expect an intense contest, both physical and technical, with set pieces and individual brilliance playing their part.

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