Gremio vs Mirassol Prediction: 6 August 2026 Copa do Brasil

This Copa do Brasil 2026 Round of 16 second leg is a genuine shootout for progression. The first leg ended 1-1 at Mirassol, meaning Gremio must either win or force extra time at the Arena do Grêmio to avoid elimination. Mirassol, ranked significantly higher globally than Gremio (103 vs 197), arrive in Porto Alegre with a draw result already in the bank and a 2-1 league win over Gremio just weeks prior. Gremio’s home advantage is real, but their form over the last 30 days has been poor — one win from seven — while Mirassol have gone unbeaten in their last four, winning two and drawing two.

Two players stand out as key influencers. For Mirassol, Bruno Santos de Oliveira leads their attack with four goals in six matches across the last five-game sample, pairing that with four offsides — a sign he constantly stretches defensive lines. For Gremio, Tetê is their most complete attacker, contributing one goal and two assists in seven appearances while generating 13 shots, and his link-up with Francis Amuzu gives Luís Castro’s side their best chance of breaking Mirassol’s organized defensive block.

Hot stat: Mirassol’s Igor Formiga has recorded four assists in six matches while also chipping in with a goal — an extraordinary return for a defender and a genuine set-piece threat that Gremio’s 4-2-3-1 must account for at every dead ball situation.

Gremio vs Mirassol Prediction

With the tie level at 1-1 on aggregate, Gremio need a win to advance without penalties. That obligation pushes them forward, but their recent form — four losses in seven matches — makes backing them to win in 90 minutes a risky proposition. Mirassol have been the more consistent side over the last month, and they already proved they can score at the Arena do Grêmio’s equivalent atmosphere in the league encounter.

The best value sits in backing both teams to score. Gremio’s defensive record over their last five matches shows 15 yellow cards and two red cards, indicating a side that struggles to stay disciplined under pressure. Mirassol average more goals per game (9 in 5 matches) than Gremio (7 in 5), and with Gremio forced to attack, spaces will open for Mirassol’s front line. We predict BTTS is the most reliable market here.

Gremio’s 3,115 total passes versus Mirassol’s 2,455 shows Gremio will dominate possession, but their pass accuracy ratio tells a slightly different story — Mirassol are tighter and more efficient in their build-up. Gremio commit fewer fouls per game on average (67 over five matches vs Mirassol’s 70), yet their card count is dramatically higher, suggesting their fouling comes in dangerous areas. Mirassol’s 76 interceptions across five matches (compared to Gremio’s 58) shows they press and disrupt effectively, which could stifle Gremio’s possession-heavy approach in the decisive moments.

• We predict Gremio to win this match but only narrowly, with both teams scoring.
• Total goals over 2.5 looks strong given the elimination pressure and Mirassol’s attacking output.
• Corners market leans over, as Gremio’s attacking volume (38 corners in 5 matches) alone justifies it.

Team Analysis

Gremio’s recent run has been difficult. They lost to Bolivar twice in Copa Sudamericana play (0-1 and 2-3), drew with Fluminense 1-1, and then drew the first leg of this tie 1-1. Their only notable positive across their last seven matches was a win sandwiched between those defeats. The 2-3 home loss to Bolivar is particularly concerning — it showed their defense can be breached multiple times at the Arena do Grêmio. Luís Castro’s 4-2-3-1 has not been generating consistent results, and the team’s 40% win rate on the year is largely built on earlier-season form. The first leg 1-1 draw was a missed opportunity given they had home advantage in this second leg to build on.

Mirassol arrive in considerably better shape. Their last four matches: a 1-1 draw in the first leg against Gremio, a 2-1 win over Remo, a 1-1 draw with Vasco, and a 2-1 Série A win against Gremio just before that. The only blemish in their recent run was a 0-1 loss to Athletico PR five matches back. Rafael Guanaes has his side well-organized in a 4-3-3, with Bruno Santos leading the line and Igor Formiga providing unexpected attacking output from defense. Their 50% win rate over the last 30 days is the better number heading into this second leg.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Gremio vs Mirassol stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Gremio the Favourite

• Moneyline Gremio 2.05 | Mirassol 4.21
• Draw 3.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 — check current lines | Under 2.5 — check current lines
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — check current lines | No — check current lines

The moneyline odds at around 2.05 for Gremio reflect their home advantage and the fact that they must win to progress, but they are not particularly generous given their recent form. Mirassol at 4.21 (Pinnacle) offers real value when you consider they are the better-ranked side globally and have already beaten Gremio once this season (4-1 in Série A back in April). The draw at 3.20 is worth considering for those who believe this tie goes to extra time or penalties. To be honest, the market is pricing Gremio’s home factor heavily — perhaps more than their current form deserves.

Possible Starting Lineups

Gremio Possible Starting Eleven

Luís Castro is expected to line up in his preferred 4-2-3-1, though the front four could shift to a more direct 4-3-3 given the need for a win. Gabriel Grando takes the gloves after the most appearances among Gremio’s keepers. Kannemann and Gustavo Martins anchor the center-back pairing, with Diego Caito and Marlon as the wide defenders. Villasanti and Juan Nardoni sit as the double pivot, with Erick Noriega operating ahead of them. Tetê is the creative hub in behind, with Carlos Vinícius — who has two goals in five matches — leading the line. Francis Amuzu on the wing brings pace and two goals of his own; he is the man most likely to create chaos in behind Mirassol’s high defensive line.

Mirassol Possible Starting Eleven

Rafael Guanaes sets up in a compact 4-3-3, with Walter Leandro as the starting goalkeeper across the most appearances in this sample. The back four features Igor Formiga as a left-sided center-back or wing-back — his four assists make him the most dangerous defender in this match. João Victor Carroll Santana has also contributed a goal from defense. Denilson Alves Borges anchors the midfield with 10 interceptions and two assists, providing both defensive solidity and creative output. Up front, Bruno Santos (four goals in six matches) leads the line, supported by the industrious Edson Carioca who has two goals of his own. This is a well-balanced side that does not need to win but will punish any Gremio defensive error on the counter.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

This second leg carries real tension. Gremio need a win and will push forward, but their last 30 days — one win in seven — does not inspire confidence. Mirassol’s global ranking (103 vs Gremio’s 197), their unbeaten recent run, and their head-to-head record this season (a 4-1 thrashing and a 2-1 win in Série A) all point to a team that has Gremio’s number right now.

We predict Gremio to edge this 2-1 at home, driven by crowd pressure and the necessity of the result, but Mirassol will score. Bruno Santos and Igor Formiga are the visiting threats to watch, while Tetê and Amuzu must deliver for the home side. The BTTS and Over 2.5 goals markets are where the value lies. If Mirassol score first, the tie could swing decisively in their favor — Gremio’s recent form does not suggest they can chase a game comfortably.

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