Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Copa Del Rey Match - 06.01.2026

The Nuevo Los Cármenes stadium in Granada hosts a crucial Copa Del Rey 2025/26 Round of 32 clash between Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano on January 6th, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 20:00 CEST. This contest brings together two sides hungry for cup progress in the heart of Spain, where the stakes are high and the margins slim. Under the guidance of Pacheta, Granada CF seek solace and resurgence on home turf, while Iñigo Pérez’s Rayo Vallecano arrive with ambitions of asserting their form on enemy soil.

All eyes will be on Granada’s Pedro Alemañ, whose goal-scoring presence from midfield provides a vital link between defense and attack, and Rayo Vallecano’s Isi Palazón, a dynamic force whose creative input could tip the balance in a tightly matched encounter. Both players epitomize their sides’ intentions not only through technical skill but also through relentless commitment.

A “hot stat” stands out—Rayo Vallecano have racked up 27 corner kicks over their last five matches, an indication of their attacking width and tendency to pin opponents back in their own third. Such dominance in set-piece situations could prove decisive against a Granada defense that has occasionally struggled under pressure.

🏅Best bets for Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano at Thunderpick with a Welcome offer +100% up to 600€💰

Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano predictions

Me best bet: Rayo Vallecano to win. With a slightly superior win rate over the past month (29% vs Granada’s 20%), enhanced creativity on the wings, and a more dynamic approach in the final third, Rayo Vallecano hold a tangible edge. Their ability to earn corners at a high rate signals sustained pressure that may eventually wear down Granada’s defensive organization. The away side’s more diverse attacking threats, notably from set plays and overlapping fullbacks, make them well equipped to handle the high-intensity stakes of Copa Del Rey knockout football.

Tactically, Granada have focused on defensive solidity in a 4-2-3-1, absorbing pressure with measured possession (1240 passes at 82% accuracy last five matches) but at the cost of attacking potency. Rayo Vallecano, often lining up in a fluid 4-3-3, display greater verticality and tempo, recording higher ball recoveries (38 interceptions vs Granada’s 28), more total shots (82 vs 58), and a propensity for attacking transitions. However, both teams are not shy in duels—Granada and Rayo have amassed 13 and 15 yellow cards respectively over their last five fixtures, indicating a combative midfield battle and the likelihood of frequent fouls disrupting rhythm.

Prop picks by me:

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Rayo Vallecano Over 5.5

Best bets this month available at Thunderpick

Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano Most recent H2Hs

Historically, recent encounters between Granada CF and Rayo Vallecano have been tightly contested affairs, often characterized by narrow scorelines and sporadic bursts of attacking quality. Granada’s tactical discipline and experience at Los Cármenes help them weather significant pressure, but their struggle to convert chances (just 4 goals in last five) contrasts sharply with Rayo’s greater shot volume and set-piece prowess. However, Rayo’s over-aggressiveness sometimes leaves gaps at the back, giving Granada hope of punishing transitions. The statistical trends suggest incremental Rayo dominance, but the fixture’s cup nature means moments of individual brilliance or defensive lapses could be decisive.

🚨Read our full Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Rayo Vallecano have averaged 16.4 shots per match over their last five, nearly 41% higher than Granada’s 11.6.
• Granada CF have scored only once in the first half of their last five matches.
• Both teams have each received at least 2 yellow cards per match in this recent spell.
• Rayo Vallecano’s pass accuracy averages 83%, facilitating high-tempo ball progression.
• Granada have lost three of their last five home matches when conceding first.

Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano score prediction: 0-1

Expect a match decided by fine margins. Rayo Vallecano’s defensive stability—anchored by Florian Lejeune and overlapping from Pep Chavarria—gives them resilience against Granada’s sporadic buildups. Isi Palazón’s creativity and Sergio Camello’s movement may exploit gaps between Granada’s midfield and back line. Meanwhile, Pedro Alemañ’s set-piece delivery could keep Granada hopeful, yet Rayo’s sharper edge, particularly in transitions and on corners, should prove conclusive. Predicted result: Rayo Vallecano win 1-0.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Rayo Vallecano the favourite

The betting markets lean toward Rayo Vallecano (average 41 percent win probability). Bookmakers recognize Rayo’s superior recent form and attacking output, offering tighter odds on the away win than a home triumph, while the draw is also priced conservatively—highlighting the potential for another close, low-scoring encounter. The under 2.5 goals market holds significant value given both teams’ defensive discipline; however, the slightly longer odds on “no” for both teams scoring reflect skepticism about Granada’s attacking sharpness against a robust Rayo backline.

Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano Over/Under Analysis

• Four of Granada’s last five matches ended with two or fewer goals.
• Rayo Vallecano have kept clean sheets in two of their last five outings.
• Granada failed to score in three of their last five matches.
• Rayo Vallecano’s last five away matches averaged 1.8 total goals per game.

Granada CF Preview

Granada struggled for momentum entering this clash, winning just once in their past five fixtures. Their most recent outing—a narrow 2-3 defeat at home to Almeria—saw fleeting flashes of attacking intent, but also exposed vulnerabilities at the back. A recurring issue is inconsistent build-up play: while Granada passed at a solid 82 percent success clip, they lacked penetration in the final third and were limited to only one goal until late defensive lapses decided the result. Defensively, the team demonstrates collective effort, evidenced by multiple contributors in interceptions and fouls, but will need to elevate their tactical concentration against a Rayo attack that can punish even minor mistakes.

Granada CF possible starting eleven

Rayo Vallecano Preview

Rayo Vallecano enter on the back of a 1-1 stalemate with Getafe, a testament to both their offensive ambition—outshooting their opponent—and their capacity to control tempo under pressure. While their recent 0-4 defeat to Elche underscores occasional defensive collapses, Rayo typically marshal the midfield well and maintain a cohesive high press, thanks to energy from Oscar Valentín, Pep Chavarria, and the versatile Unai López. Defensive lapses notwithstanding, their 3-0 victory over Drita and consistent conversion of corners into scoring opportunities should serve as blueprints for overcoming Granada’s defensive lines. Chavarria’s overlapping runs and Florian Lejeune’s command in set pieces make them joint threats to watch.

Rayo Vallecano possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

The balance tilts slightly towards the visitors. Rayo Vallecano’s versatility going forward, paired with a capacity to produce chances from set plays, gives them the upper hand in what is likely to be a tense, hard-fought duel. Granada’s low conversion rate and occasional defensive lapses render their margin for error minimal. Our principal prediction is a Rayo Vallecano victory, with a 41 percent probability as derived from our dedicated Tips.GG AI engine. While upsets are always possible in Copa Del Rey play, the data and tactical profiles point towards a narrow away win.

How to watch Granada CF vs Rayo Vallecano

When? Kick-off: 06.01.2026, 20:00 CEST
Where? Nuevo Los Cármenes, Granada
How to watch: Available on regional broadcasters and official Copa Del Rey streaming platforms.
Favorite: Rayo Vallecano

Best football betting sites and Bonuses

More useful links for football fans

• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG