Liam Duckstein
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Gorica host Rijeka in the 1. HNL on 31 August, and the context could not be starker. Gorica sit bottom of the table with zero points from four games, while Rijeka arrive in fifth place with a reasonable early-season return. What makes this fixture worth watching is the head-to-head record: Gorica actually beat Rijeka 4-0 in their last home meeting, which shows that the home side can cause problems when things click, even if right now almost nothing is clicking for Mario Carevic’s team.
Bruno Bogojević leads Gorica’s attacking threat with two goals in the last five matches and the most shots in the squad, making him the one player capable of creating something from very little. For Rijeka, Tiago Dantas pulls the strings in midfield with 195 passes and a key assist in recent games, consistently dictating tempo under Matjaz Kek.
A hot stat worth flagging: Gorica have scored just two goals across their last five matches while conceding nine. That attacking drought, combined with a leaky defence, makes it very hard to back them against a side that has scored five times in the same sample.
| 🏆 Tournament: | 1. HNL 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🗓️ Date: | 31.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Gorica vs Rijeka Prediction
Rijeka are the clear pick here. They have won four of their last eight matches, carry more quality across the pitch, and the bookmakers agree with a 59% implied probability for a Rijeka win. Gorica have lost all four league games this season and have not won a single match in the last 30 days. The head-to-head record over recent seasons also leans heavily toward Rijeka, who have won six of the last eight meetings between these two clubs.
The best value option is a Rijeka win. The odds around 1.52 to 1.55 are short but justified by the weight of evidence. Gorica’s defensive record of conceding nine goals in five games, combined with their near-total lack of attacking output, points toward another difficult evening for the home side.
On style of play, Rijeka have committed 58 fouls and picked up eight yellow cards across their last five matches, which signals an aggressive pressing approach that tends to unsettle passive opponents. Gorica average 38 fouls and five yellows in the same period, suggesting they are less physically imposing. Rijeka also dominate in pass accuracy and total passes, meaning they are likely to control possession and dictate the rhythm of this game. That control limits Gorica’s ability to build any sustained pressure.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Rijeka to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Gorica have been in poor form across the entire month of August. They lost all four recent matches, conceding to Slaven Belupo, Hajduk Split, Lokomotiva Zagreb, and Osijek without managing a single victory. Their most recent match was a 0-2 home defeat to Slaven Belupo, a side that has struggled itself this season, which underlines how badly things have gone for Carevic’s squad. Across the last five games they have managed just 45 total shots and a pass accuracy of around 77%, reflecting a team that is struggling to build any kind of attacking platform. The season-long picture is equally grim: 12 wins from 33 matches and a 36% win rate.
Rijeka’s recent form is more complicated than their fifth-place standing suggests. They lost 0-2 to Varazdin and were beaten twice by Midtjylland in European qualifying, conceding six goals across those two legs. Their domestic form is more convincing, with a 3-2 win over Istra 1961 being their most recent league outing. Over their last five matches they have scored five goals, generated 55 shots, and posted 24 corner kicks, which shows genuine attacking intent. The squad depth under Kek is visible in the lineup data, with multiple players contributing across different phases of the game.
🚨Check out our dedicated Gorica vs Rijeka stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Rijeka the Favourite
- Moneyline Gorica 5.75 | Rijeka 1.52
- Draw 3.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The Rijeka price of around 1.52 reflects a dominant favourite tag, and to be honest, it is hard to argue against it. Gorica at 5.75 carries some appeal given the 4-0 home win in the previous head-to-head, but that result looks like an outlier against a backdrop of consistent losses. The draw at 3.60 is not appealing either, as Gorica have not drawn a single match in their last four games and show no signs of grinding out a result. We predict Rijeka to win, and the “win to nil” angle adds extra value given Gorica’s inability to score regularly.
Possible Starting Lineups
Gorica Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Davor Matijaš
- DF: Stefan Perić, Jakov Filipović, Ivan Cvijanovic, Filip Braut
- MF: Domagoj Pavičić, Ante Kavelj, Luka Vrzic, Frigan Juraj
- FW: Bruno Bogojević, Patrik Mijic
Carevic has leaned on a 4-2-3-1 shape in recent matches, and this selection reflects the players who have featured most consistently. Davor Matijaš is the clear first-choice goalkeeper with 12 saves in five games. Bruno Bogojević is the only Gorica player to have scored recently and remains the main attacking threat up front. Patrik Mijic has taken 14 shots across five games, the most of any outfield player in the squad, and his directness could trouble Rijeka’s backline even if results have not shown it yet.
Rijeka Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Aleksa Todorovic
- DF: Ante Majstorović, Ante Orec, Mladen Devetak, Anel Husic
- MF: Branko Pavic, Tiago Dantas, Alfonso Barco, Justas Lasickas
- FW: Jakov Puljić, D. Adu-Adjei
Kek has also favoured a 4-2-3-1 system, and Aleksa Todorovic is the undisputed starter in goal with 15 saves this season. Ante Majstorović leads the defensive line with six interceptions and consistent appearances in all five matches. Tiago Dantas is the creative hub, averaging close to 39 passes per game with strong accuracy. Jakov Puljić and D. Adu-Adjei both have goals in recent outings and form a dangerous front pairing capable of punishing a Gorica defence that has been generous all season.
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Rijeka. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a Rijeka win, with a “win to nil” as the best value play. Gorica have scored just twice in five games, lost every match in the last 30 days, and sit pointless at the bottom of the 1. HNL table. Rijeka are far from perfect, as the back-to-back European defeats to Midtjylland show, but domestically they are a better-organised and more dangerous side. Their pass volume, corner count, and shot output all point toward a team that will dominate possession and create enough chances to seal the three points. The head-to-head data across the last eight meetings further backs Rijeka, who have won six of those clashes. Back Rijeka to win to nil at generous odds and consider under 2.5 goals as a secondary option given how little both teams have been scoring when under pressure.
