Gorica vs Hajduk Split Prediction: 31.01.2026 1. HNL Preview

As the 1. HNL regular season intensifies, Gorica host Hajduk Split at Stadion Radnik, Velika Gorica, on 31 January 2026 in what promises to be a instructive measuring stick for both teams’ ambitions. Gorica, battling from the eighth spot, face the second-placed Hajduk Split, seeking not only points, but also a statement against one of Croatia’s historic clubs. Both teams, surprisingly fond of the 4-2-3-1 formation of late, will be striving to outmaneuver the other tactically. Fans can look forward to a clash where every inch of midfield could tip the balance.

Key players worth a watch include Jakov Filipović for Gorica – solid at the back and recently notching a rare goal for his side – and Hajduk’s Filip Krovinović, whose midfield orchestration and eye for a pass has been crucial in their recent run. Interestingly, Hajduk Split’s high number of yellow cards in recent matches surfaces as something to keep an eye on, potentially disrupting their rhythm and opening doors for Gorica if tensions flare.

The ‘hot stat’ heading into this tie? Hajduk Split average a remarkable 22 shots per game over their last five – an attacking intent Gorica simply can’t match at the moment.

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Gorica vs Hajduk Split prediction

Despite Gorica’s recent improvement, Hajduk Split come into this matchup as worthy favourites, both on outright odds and on form. Their robust away record and offensive prowess, demonstrated by a massive 22 shots per game, are difficult to overlook. The best value prediction here is “Hajduk Split to win”, leveraging their directness in attack and greater squad depth. However, it is worth considering Gorica’s tendency to keep the score tight at home, which could make the under goals market more tempting for the cautious punter.

Both teams have shown discipline-deficit issues: each averages eight fouls per game, but Hajduk Split in particular rack up yellow cards, with four per match across their last five. This could dampen Hajduk’s play if key players are forced to tread tentatively. In midfield, Hajduk’s superior passing numbers – boasting an average of 477 completed passes per match with a respectable accuracy – grant them the control to set the tempo, whereas Gorica’s reliance on defensive stints and quick counters will be crucial to any upset bid.

Team Analysis

Gorica: In their recent fixtures, Gorica have shown flashes of improvement, including a sturdy 2-0 win over Radomlje and a 1-0 win against Zalaegerszegi. Their last outing, however, ended in a 1-2 setback to Varazdin – a closely-fought contest where Gorica’s limited attacking output (just 13 attempts on goal) proved insufficient. Positives include Jakov Filipović’s form at centre-back and the smart build-up play from Marijan Čabraja. However, inefficiency in front of goal and a reliance on moments from set-pieces have capped their overall effectiveness, while ball progression from midfield remains a work in progress.

Hajduk Split: Hajduk Split enter this match following a rare slip – a 1-2 defeat to Istra 1961 that snapped their three-game winning streak. In that sequence, Hajduk’s intent to dictate play was clear: they dominated shots (peaking at 22 attempts), moved the ball with purpose (averaging nearly 400 successful passes), and maintained aggressive front-foot football. Players like Filip Krovinović and Dario Melnjak should rise to the challenge here. Defensive frailty and discipline, highlighted by a rash of bookings, remain their main concerns but they retain far more attacking thrust than their hosts.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Gorica vs Hajduk Split stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Hajduk Split the favourite

• Moneyline Gorica 4.18 | Hajduk Split 1.85
• Draw 3.43
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.05 | Under 2.5 1.75
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.90 | No 1.78

These odds rightly favour Hajduk Split, who possess not only better recent form but a more imposing attack. Oddsmakers adjust for Gorica’s home ground but still expect Hajduk to dominate, especially considering their prolific shooting and ball retention. Tighter odds on the under goals market track with Gorica’s propensity for low-scoring games and Hajduk’s organised defense. The BTTS market is split, but Hajduk’s clean-sheet record tilts value towards “No”.

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My take on the Match

Expect Hajduk Split to assert their quality and maintain pressure near the top of the table with a solid, professional performance. Gorica have the tools and the organisation to frustrate, and a set-piece goal isn’t out of the question, but Hajduk’s overall class should shine through. With controlling midfielders and a high-paced forward line, Hajduk Split will likely outshoot and outscore their hosts – my main pick is a narrow away win, likely 0-2 or 0-1. Still, should Gorica draw first blood, this could become a cagey, tactical affair, so don’t count out drama in Velika Gorica!

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