Gorica vs Hajduk Split Prediction: 24.10.2025 1. HNL

The Croatian 1. HNL resumes with a compelling clash as Gorica play host to Hajduk Split at Stadion Radnik. While Hajduk Split arrive on an imperious run of form, Gorica are eager to halt the visitor’s momentum and ignite their own campaign in this regular season showdown. Interestingly, despite Gorica’s lacklustre recent run, it’s always in these fixtures that we’ve witnessed flair players rise to the occasion and drama play out on the pitch. Will history repeat itself, or does Hajduk Split march on untouched?

Two attacking talents to keep a particular eye on: Filip Cuic for Gorica, whose recent energetic displays and goal involve him in Gorica’s most promising moments, and Michele Šego for Hajduk Split, coming off a two-goal, high-impact run in the previous five matches and looking ever potent in advanced areas.

Hot stat: Hajduk Split are on a four-match winning streak in the league, scoring 10 goals in their last five outings while conceding just two – a sign of both attacking prowess and defensive solidity.

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Gorica vs Hajduk Split prediction

Given recent form and statistical trends, the best value match prediction strongly favours an away win for Hajduk Split. The rationale is clear: Hajduk Split boast a 100 percent win rate in their last four matches, exhibiting a potent blend of attacking dynamism and defensive discipline. In contrast, Gorica have suffered three straight defeats, conceding three goals in each of their last two games. With the visitor’s superior squad depth, tactical organisation under Gonzalo García, and momentum in the table, an upset feels unlikely.

Stylistically, Hajduk Split’s high pressing and controlled build-up, signified by 1277 attempted passes in their last five matches and a pass accuracy of 1043, suit them well against a Gorica side that has struggled to assert control, especially when pressed (their 29 fouls in the last five outings suggest a side chasing shadows rather than dictating play).
Yellow card and foul counts are also telling: Hajduk Split have drawn 43 fouls in their last five outings, testing opposition discipline, while Gorica’s 29 fouls and 7 yellows underscore occasional defensive recklessness. Ball progression and possession phases, highlighted by the midfield activity of players like Adrion Pajaziti and Filip Krovinović for Hajduk, further support the visitors as the best-backed outcome.

Team Analysis

Gorica’s recent matches have been marked by defensive lapses and a lack of clinical finishing. Their last match, a 1-3 home defeat to Varazdin, highlighted continued struggles in defending set-pieces and responding to midfield turnovers. Despite a bright goal from Jurica Pršir, Gorica’s inability to contain quick transitions and aerial threats was exposed time and again. Their preceding losses to Rijeka (1-3) and Osijek (0-1) follow a similar script—troubles in build-up under pressure, an overreliance on individual moments, and a tendency to concede late, fatal blows. Mario Carevic’s side often switch between 4-2-3-1 and minor tactical tweaks, but a lack of offensive cohesion persists, and only 36 shots across five matches is telling.

Hajduk Split’s recent run is a model of consistency and confidence. Their latest 3-0 win over Istra 1961 was a showcase of balance: goals from multiple individuals (including Rokas Pukstas and strikingly dynamic runs from Michele Šego) and a robust defensive display. Prior to that, victories over Vukovar 1991 (1-0), Lokomotiva Zagreb (2-0), and Koprivnica (4-1) displayed an almost unflappable confidence in both defence and attack. The recurring 4-2-3-1 formation has given them tactical flexibility, allowing the likes of Pajaziti and Šego to wreak havoc from midfield and advanced positions. With 57 shots in five games and only two conceded goals, Hajduk Split are in the ascendency.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Gorica vs Hajduk Split stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Hajduk Split the favourite

• Moneyline Gorica 4.49 | Hajduk Split 1.77
• Draw 3.56
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.86 | Under 2.5 1.90
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.82

The odds underline what the stats already suggest: Hajduk Split are strong favourites here, with the shortest odds hovering around 1.75-1.77 for an away win, while Gorica’s win price ranges from modest outsider (4.20) up to real longshot territory (9.50 on a few books). The Over 2.5 price is just below even, reflecting expectation of an open, attacking contest, with BTTS slightly tilting towards ‘No’—justifiably so, given Gorica’s attacking struggles and Hajduk’s defensive resilience. In summary, Hajduk Split are fancied by bookmakers and for good reason—superior talent, sharp form, tactical discipline and historical head-to-head advantage.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Gorica possible starting eleven

Carevic will most likely trust Matijaš in goal, given his consistent starting presence and shot-stopping ability. The back four is anchored by Filipović and Leš, with Perić and Čabraja adding defensive width and passing. In midfield, Pršir’s energy and the ball progression of Pozo and Pavičić are crucial if Gorica are to break through Hajduk’s disciplined shape. Fiolić’s creativity and Bakic’s work-rate complete the likely midfield, with Filip Cuic leading the line—tasked with unlocking Hajduk’s formidable defenders. Expect Gorica to start in their typical 4-2-3-1 but potentially shifting shape when chasing the game.

Hajduk Split possible starting eleven

Ivušić is the safest hands in net, protected by Šarlija’s composure and Melnjak’s marauding runs. Karačić and Gonzalez offer solid coverage, while the midfield axis of Krovinović and Pajaziti provides progression and link play. Wide threats in Guillamón and Sigur complement the central presence, with Šego confident in front of goal and Rebić a constant threat with his directness and work ethic. Look for Hajduk Split to maintain their balanced 4-2-3-1, flexible and aggressive on transitions. Keep an eye on Šego, whose movement and recent scoring record make him a danger every minute.

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My take on the Match

It’s hard to look past Hajduk Split for the three points here. Their form is blistering, and the team’s balance between slick attacking and resolute defence dovetails perfectly with the trends of this matchup. While Gorica have the benefit of home turf and the occasional spark from Cuic and Pršir, on the evidence we have, the visitors truly stand a class apart just now. For me, Hajduk’s habit for early goals and defensive steel could well see them control proceedings from kick-off to final whistle. My pick? Hajduk Split to win confidently, perhaps 2-0 or 3-1, putting a real marker down ahead of bigger challenges in their league pursuit.

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