Rafael Nogueira
Goias host Novorizontino at Estádio da Serrinha in a mid-table Série B clash that carries real promotion implications. Both sides sit on 17 points after 11 matches, separated only by goal difference, making this a direct battle for position in the upper half of the table. Goias have been stronger at home, and Daniel Paulista’s side will look to press that advantage against an Enderson Moreira team that has drawn five of their last eleven league games. The man to watch for Goias is forward Esli Garcia, who has registered three assists across the last four matches and offers constant movement in behind. For Novorizontino, midfielder Matheus Henrique Bianqui is the creative engine, leading his side in shots with nine across three recent appearances and already chipping in a goal.
Hot stat: Goias have accumulated 21 corner kicks across their last five matches compared to Novorizontino’s 10, more than double the rate, pointing to a side that consistently generates wide pressure and could exploit set-piece situations here.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio da Serrinha, Goiania, Brazil |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:00 CEST |
Goias vs Novorizontino Prediction
Goias are the value pick here. Playing at home, with a better corner rate, higher pass volume, and more shots across five recent games, they carry the stronger attacking profile. Their 50% win rate over the last 30 days also edges out Novorizontino’s 38%. The bookmakers price Goias as favourites at an average of 40%, yet several bookmakers are offering odds around 2.30-2.45, which reflects a market that has not fully priced in the home advantage at Serrinha.
Novorizontino have drawn four of their last eight matches, which signals a defensive solidity but also an inability to close out games. Their pass accuracy across five matches sits at 725 completed passes from 939, noticeably lower than Goias’s 1,666 from 1,931, suggesting Goias control possession phases far more comfortably. Novorizontino commit fewer fouls (43 vs 70 over five games), which keeps them disciplined, but their low corner count (10) and shot volume (35 total) point to a side that struggles to manufacture chances consistently. We predict Goias to win this one at home.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Goias to win and over 1.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Goias are in reasonable form heading into this fixture. Their last five results include wins over Avai (2-0), Botafogo SP (1-0), and Vila Nova (1-0), with a draw against Atletico Goianiense (1-1) and a loss to Cruzeiro (0-1). The Cruzeiro defeat came against one of the top-ranked clubs in Brazilian football, so the context softens that result. Their most recent outing, a 1-1 draw with Atletico Goianiense, showed they can hold their ground against local rivals. Across five matches they have kept three clean sheets, which is a positive defensive indicator for this home game.
Novorizontino’s recent run is less convincing. They drew with Sao Bernardo (1-1) in their latest match, drew 2-2 with Chapecoense before that, won against Ceara (2-1), then lost to Chapecoense (0-2), and drew 0-0 with Cuiaba. That is one win, three draws, and one loss from five, with a goal return of just five across those games. The loss to Chapecoense, a side rated lower in the standings, is a concern. Their attack has been inconsistent, and the 0-0 against Cuiaba underlines the difficulty they face in breaking down organised defences.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have met four times in recent Série B seasons. Goias have won two of those encounters, Novorizontino one, with one Goias win. The head-to-head record is narrow but slightly favours Goias, particularly at home, where they won 1-0 in their most recent meeting at Serrinha.
| Statistic | Goias | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 3 |
| Total shots | 46 | 35 |
| Free kicks | 51 | 42 |
| Corner kicks | 21 | 10 |
| Total fouls | 70 | 43 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 86% | 77% |
| Interceptions | 31 | 18 |
| Offsides | 8 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Goias vs Novorizontino stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Goias the Favourite
- Moneyline Goias 2.39 | Novorizontino 3.37
- Draw 2.94
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.75
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.90 | No 1.85
Pinnacle’s line at 2.39 for Goias is among the sharpest available and represents fair value given the home advantage and the form edge. The draw at 2.94 is tempting given Novorizontino’s tendency to draw, but we lean against it here because Goias at home have been decisive in winning three of their last five. Novorizontino at 3.37 (Pinnacle) feels slightly short given their inconsistency over the last month. The under 2.5 goals market at roughly 1.75 reflects the low-scoring nature of both teams’ recent head-to-head meetings, and that aligns with the defensive structure both coaches tend to favour.
Novorizontino. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Goias Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Thiago Rodrigues
- DF: Diego Caito, Nicolas Vichiatto Da Silva, Luis Fellipe Campos Doria, Ramon
- MF: Lucas Rodrigues Moreira Costa, Luiz Filipe da Rosa Machado, Lourenço, Gegê
- FW: Esli Garcia, Anselmo Ramon
Daniel Paulista has consistently deployed a 4-2-3-1 shape and this lineup reflects the players who have featured most across the last five matches. Thiago Rodrigues starts in goal ahead of Tadeu, who has only one appearance in this stretch. Diego Caito anchors the right side of defence and has been one of the more active defenders in possession, completing 118 passes in four games. In midfield, Lucas Rodrigues and Luiz Filipe form the double pivot, while Gegê and Lourenço provide the creativity in the wider areas. Esli Garcia is the player to watch, his three assists in four games make him the most dangerous creator in this squad, and he will likely operate behind striker Anselmo Ramon, who has two goals in four appearances.
Novorizontino Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jordi
- DF: Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas, Carlinhos, Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho, Nilson Castrillón
- MF: Matheus Henrique Bianqui, Juninho, Leonardo Naldi de Matos, C. Ortiz
- FW: Robson, Ronald Barcellos Arantes
Enderson Moreira also favours a 4-2-3-1 structure. Jordi takes the goalkeeping spot based on more appearances than César. The back four is built around Carlinhos and Patrick Marcos, both of whom have been regular starters. Matheus Henrique Bianqui is the standout player in this squad, nine shots and a goal in three games place him as Novorizontino’s primary attacking threat from midfield. Juninho provides support with a goal of his own in three appearances. Robson leads the attack and has been active in winning free kicks, recording seven across three games, which could be a set-piece outlet away from home.
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Goias. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Goias are the pick to win this match. Their home record, superior shot output (46 vs 35 over five games), better pass accuracy (86% vs 77%), and double the corner count all point to a team that dominates proceedings at Serrinha. Novorizontino’s draw-heavy form suggests they can be stubborn, so both teams to score is a reasonable add-on given that Novorizontino have scored in four of their last five outings. We predict a narrow Goias win, perhaps 1-0 or 2-1, with corners going over 7.5 as Goias press forward in their typical wide-heavy style. The best value play is Goias to win at 2.39 (Pinnacle), with the over 7.5 corners market as a strong secondary option.
