Levi Rothermund
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GKS Katowice face a steep challenge on home soil. Hapoel Tel Aviv already won the first leg 2-0, so the Polish side must score twice without conceding just to force extra time. That deficit makes this second leg one of the more one-sided ties left in the Third Qualifying Round, with Elyaniv Barda’s side needing only a draw or better to advance. Rafal Gorak’s men have shown they can score at home, but their defensive record in recent weeks raises real questions about their ability to keep a clean sheet while chasing the game.
Two players stand out for this match. For GKS Katowice, Ilia Shkurin leads the attacking line with two goals and an assist across the last five matches, and his ability to create shots in tight spaces makes him the most dangerous option Gorak has when going forward. For Hapoel Tel Aviv, stav torial has been sharp in front of goal with two goals and an assist in four appearances, and she carries the kind of direct running that can punish a backline stretched by the need to attack.
A hot stat worth noting: GKS Katowice generated 74 total shots across their last five matches, nearly double the 38 recorded by Hapoel Tel Aviv in the same period. That volume tells you GKS push numbers forward and create chances, but converting at a higher rate will be non-negotiable if they are to overturn this tie.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27 – Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadium Katowice, Katowice |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
GKS Katowice vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction
The aggregate score makes this match almost entirely about GKS Katowice’s ability to attack, and Hapoel Tel Aviv know exactly how to play that situation. The Israeli side conceded just twice across their last four matches and kept a clean sheet in this very fixture a week ago. We think the most realistic outcome here is Hapoel Tel Aviv either holding on for a draw or nicking a goal on the counter, which would end GKS’s European run definitively.
GKS Katowice are the more aggressive side by nature. Their 4-2-3-1 setup pushes width and generates high shot volumes, but they also commit 25 fouls across five matches and have picked up 11 yellow cards in that stretch. That is a team that plays on the edge, and chasing a two-goal deficit will only amplify that tendency. Hapoel Tel Aviv, playing a 3-4-3, are compact and disciplined with just five yellow cards in five games and zero recorded fouls in the available data, suggesting they play a clean, positional style that absorbs pressure well. With GKS needing to overcommit, the Israeli side’s pace on the break becomes an asset rather than just a bonus.
We see Hapoel Tel Aviv scoring at least once in this match. GKS will push men forward and leave gaps, and the visitors have the forward quality to exploit them. Honestly, a GKS win on the night is possible, but the aggregate situation makes it feel like a consolation rather than a real comeback.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hapoel Tel Aviv to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
GKS Katowice enter this second leg with real momentum problems. In their last five competitive matches before the first leg, they mixed three wins with two losses, including a 1-2 home defeat to Wisla and a second loss to Zilina. They did bounce back with wins over Radomiak Radom and Zilina in league play, which shows the squad can perform when the pressure is domestic, but European competition at this level is a different test. Their last outing was the 0-2 loss to Hapoel Tel Aviv in the first leg, and that result exposed their defensive fragility against organized, direct opponents.
Hapoel Tel Aviv arrive in Katowice in excellent shape. They are unbeaten in their last seven matches across all competitions, with four wins and three draws. That run includes a 2-0 win over Ludogorets in European qualifying, a 2-2 draw with the same opponent, and a 2-0 victory over GKS Katowice in the first leg of this tie. Their only dropped points in that stretch came in draws, and they have not lost a single match in over a month. The squad under Elyaniv Barda looks settled and difficult to break down, even when opponents commit numbers forward.
🚨Check out our dedicated GKS Katowice vs Hapoel Tel Aviv stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: GKS Katowice the favourite
- Moneyline GKS Katowice 2.00 | Hapoel Tel Aviv 3.70
- Draw 3.25
The bookmakers price GKS Katowice as favourites for the match on the night, and that makes sense given home advantage and the need for the Polish side to attack. The 2.00 on GKS winning the 90 minutes is fair, but it does not account for how little a home win means if Hapoel Tel Aviv score even once. The 3.70 on the Israeli side winning in Katowice looks generous given their form and the tactical situation. We think Hapoel Tel Aviv are underpriced at that number. The draw at 3.25 also carries value if you believe the visitors will be content to sit deep and absorb, which their style suggests they will.
Possible Starting Lineups
GKS Katowice possible starting eleven
- GK: Gabriel Kobylak
- DF: Arkadiusz Jedrych, Pau Resta, Lukas Klemenz, Marius Berntsen Olsen
- MF: Alan Czerwiński, Erik Jirka, Bartosz Nowak, Kacper Lukasiak, Borja Galan
- FW: Ilia Shkurin
GKS Katowice will almost certainly line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1. Gabriel Kobylak starts in goal, with Arkadiusz Jedrych and Pau Resta as the central defensive pairing. Bartosz Nowak is the key creative force in midfield, carrying four assists in the last five matches, and his link play with Shkurin will be central to any attacking threat. Ilia Shkurin leads the line and is the most likely source of goals. The defensive midfield pairing of Czerwiński and Jirka will be tested heavily if GKS push numbers forward, as they will need to cover the space Hapoel Tel Aviv will target on the break.
Hapoel Tel Aviv possible starting eleven
- GK: Assaf Tzur
- DF: Fernand Mayembo, Chico, Marcus Coco, Or Israelov, tal archel
- MF: Lucas de Oliveira Teodoro Falcão, Andrian Kraev, Roee alkokin, yam el kancepolsky
- FW: stav torial, Omri Altman, Emmanuel Boateng
Hapoel Tel Aviv deploy a 3-4-3 with Assaf Tzur in goal behind a back three of Fernand Mayembo, Chico, and Marcus Coco, all of whom have logged full 360 minutes across the last four matches, suggesting they are Barda’s trusted defensive unit. Chico brings an attacking dimension from the back with one goal already this campaign. Up front, the combination of stav torial, Omri Altman, and Emmanuel Boateng gives the side pace and goal threat from multiple angles. Roee alkokin in midfield adds two goals from central positions and gives Hapoel a box-to-box presence that can hurt GKS when they push forward.
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Hapoel Tel Aviv. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Hapoel Tel Aviv are the better side on current form and hold all the cards going into this second leg. Their 2-0 first-leg lead means GKS Katowice must score twice without reply just to level on aggregate, and the Israeli side’s defensive record and tactical discipline make that an unlikely outcome. GKS will generate shots, maybe plenty of them, but their tendency to concede when the defensive shape is disrupted is a real concern when the team needs to push forward at every opportunity.
We predict Hapoel Tel Aviv to score at least once on the night, making the tie effectively over well before the final whistle. GKS Katowice may pull a goal back for pride, but both teams scoring in a match that finishes 1-2 or 1-1 feels like the most probable outcome. The value bet here is Hapoel Tel Aviv to score and the match to go over 2.5 goals total. GKS’s attacking volume guarantees action at both ends, and Hapoel have the quality to punish every defensive lapse.
