Sofia Quijada
The final rounds of La Liga bring Girona and Elche together at Estadi Montilivi. With both teams hovering above the relegation zone, each point carries weight. Girona, under Míchel, have lost momentum in recent weeks, struggling to score at home and now sit just two points below Elche. Elche, coached by Eder Sarabia, have clawed back some confidence with three wins in their last six. The spotlight will be on Girona’s experienced striker Christian Stuani, who remains their main threat up front, and Elche’s dynamic forward Álvaro Rodríguez, who delivered both goals and assists in key moments.
Hot stat: Girona have not won a single match in their last 6 outings, recording 4 losses and 2 draws, with a winrate of 0% in the last month.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season, Spain |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadi Montilivi, Girona |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Girona vs Elche prediction
We predict a tense match with a slight edge for Elche. Girona’s inability to convert chances and frequent defensive lapses have dragged them down the table. Elche, more clinical and better organized in recent weeks, look set to capitalize on Girona’s drop in form. The best value lies in backing Elche double chance (win or draw), as they have shown resilience on the road and the odds favor Girona more than their actual performance suggests.
Girona’s style leans on ball retention (2455 passes in the last five matches, 86% accuracy), but their attack lacks sharpness and penetration. They commit a moderate number of fouls (47) and have been relatively disciplined (9 yellows). Elche, slightly less possession-oriented (2315 passes, 85% accuracy), focus more on transitions and set pieces. Their higher foul count (75) and 10 yellow cards point to a more combative approach, which could unsettle Girona’s rhythm. Expect a match with interruptions, where set pieces may prove decisive.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Elche or Draw (Double Chance) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Girona’s last match, a 0-1 defeat to Atletico Madrid, highlighted their persistent attacking struggles. Despite decent ball movement, finishing quality remains low—just three goals from their last five games. In previous fixtures, draws against Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano reflected their inability to close matches. Defensive lapses have been frequent, with 15 losses this season. Midfield creativity from Viktor Tsygankov has faded, and Stuani has struggled to get service.
Elche’s recent run is more encouraging. In their last outing, they edged Getafe 1-0, showing defensive discipline and taking advantage of limited opportunities. Wins over Real Oviedo and Celta Vigo suggest Elche can exploit teams with fragile confidence. The team balances direct play with solid defensive blocks. André Silva and Álvaro Rodríguez have been vital up front, while Pedro Bigas offers stability at the back. The only setback was a 1-2 loss to Real Betis, but even in defeat, Elche created chances and pressed well.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Girona | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 6 |
| Total shots | 84 | 53 |
| Free kicks | 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks | 28 | 15 |
| Total fouls | 47 | 75 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 86 | 85 |
| Interceptions | 47 | 41 |
| Offsides | 7 | 8 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Girona vs Elche stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Girona the favourite
- Moneyline Girona 1.75 | Elche 4.20
- Draw 4.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.05 | Under 2.5 1.75
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.05 | No 1.65
Bookmakers still rate Girona as favorites due to home advantage and early-season performance, but their current form doesn’t back up these odds. Elche at 4.20 represents clear value, given their recent uptick and Girona’s attacking woes. The market expects a tight game with few goals, and the under 2.5 line is favored. Both teams to score is a risk, given Girona’s blunt attack. We predict Girona’s price is too short for the risk, with Elche or Draw offering real value.
Possible Starting Lineups
Girona possible starting eleven
- GK: Paulo Gazzaniga
- DF: Arnau Martínez López, Daley Blind, Alejandro Francés, Vitor de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- MF: Iván Martín, Thomas Lemar, Azzedine Ounahi
- FW: Christian Stuani, Viktor Tsygankov, Joel Roca
Girona stick with a 4-3-3, relying on Gazzaniga’s reliability in goal and Blind’s calm at the back. Arnau and Francés provide width, with Ounahi and Lemar pushing from midfield. Stuani leads the line as their main goal threat, flanked by Tsygankov’s creativity and Roca’s pace. Expect Martínez to join attacks, but the midfield must find more incisive passes to break down Elche.
Elche possible starting eleven
- GK: Matías Dituro
- DF: David Affengruber, Pedro Bigas, Víctor Chust, Adrià Pedrosa
- MF: Josan, Marc Aguado, Aleix Febas, Germán Valera
- FW: Álvaro Rodríguez, André Silva
Elche opt for a 4-2-3-1, maximizing Bigas and Affengruber’s defensive solidity. Aguado and Febas anchor the midfield, with Josan and Valera supporting attacks. Up front, Rodríguez and Silva both have recent goals and assists, making them key threats. Dituro’s recent clean sheets boost confidence. This balanced lineup gives Elche flexibility to attack in numbers or sit back as needed.
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Elche. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Elche to take at least a point from this encounter, given their recent improvement and Girona’s lack of goals. The stats point towards a low-scoring, physical game with few clear chances. Elche’s energy and directness in attack give them the edge in a tight contest. Girona, frustrated by defensive errors and poor conversion, may struggle to break Elche down. Our punters favor the under and Elche double chance as the best value.
