Girona vs Celta Vigo Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga 2025/26 Match - 01.03.2026

The Estadi Montilivi prepares itself for a pivotal clash between Girona and Celta Vigo on March 1, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 22:00 CEST. As part of the La Liga 2025/26 regular season, this encounter sets two teams with contrasting recent fortunes against each other in the football heartland of Catalonia. Under the stewardship of Míchel, Girona seeks to capitalize on their home advantage amidst fluctuating form, while Claudio Giráldez’s Celta Vigo arrive riding the momentum of a more consistent run. With both squads locked in the Leagues’ competitive mid-table, the stakes could not be higher as every point counts towards continental aspirations and domestic stability.

Key figures to watch include Girona’s creative force Thomas Lemar—whose recent surge in goals provides a much-needed spark in midfield—and Celta Vigo’s evergreen striker Iago Aspas, the Galician talisman whose leadership and scoring flair continue to define Celta’s attacking play. Notably, recent match data highlight Celta’s aggressive approach and high pressing, while Girona’s ability to strike on the counter remains ever present.

A standout statistic emerges from the visitors: Celta Vigo have notched up eight goals in their last five matches, demonstrating a marked efficiency up front and a tendency to find the net against various opposition—an area Girona’s defense must closely monitor.

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Girona vs Celta Vigo predictions

My best bet: Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes

Both teams’ recent attacking output and tendency to concede makes the BTTS market a prime value choice. Girona’s defense has struggled, conceding 40 goals this season, while eight of their last ten matches for both sides combined have seen goals from each team. Celta’s efficiency (eight goals in their last five matches) and Girona’s home scoring record suggest that neither side is likely to settle for a goalless display.

In terms of tactical style, Girona aim for controlled possession but have at times lacked solidity at the back, evidenced by their relatively low pass accuracy (85.1% across last five matches) and a higher propensity to foul (45 fouls in last five). Celta, meanwhile, press intensely and attempt more shots (75 in last five) but also accumulate bookings (six yellow cards) and fouls (51 in last five). This physicality could open up the match, especially as both coaches persist with a 4-2-3-1 formation, encouraging wing play and transitions that may stretch defenses.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Girona vs Celta Vigo Most recent H2Hs

In their last three La Liga battles, Girona and Celta Vigo have proven evenly matched, with all encounters ending in draws: 1-1, 2-2, and another 1-1. These fixtures have been tightly contested, with marginal differences in shots, set pieces, and defensive records. The parity in goals, shots, and possession underlines the competitive balance and suggests that another high-tempo, closely fought match is likely at Estadi Montilivi.

🚨Read our full Girona vs Celta Vigo stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Celta Vigo have scored eight goals in their last five matches—one of the top marks among La Liga mid-table teams currently.
• All three of the most recent H2H meetings between these teams have ended in draws, with both teams scoring in every match.
• Girona average almost 10 shots per match at home, but have conceded in each of their last seven La Liga games at Montilivi.
• Celta’s Iago Aspas has contributed five goals or assists in his last six matches.

Girona vs Celta Vigo score prediction: 2-2

Given the attacking quality on both sides and recent H2H trends, the correct score prediction is a 2-2 draw. Expect Thomas Lemar to orchestrate Girona’s offense with creative play and late runs from midfield, while Aspas’ movement and finishing should give Celta a vital edge up front. Both defenses have vulnerabilities, making this a fixture with high goal probability.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Girona the favourite

The odds reflect a tightly contested battle, with Girona narrowly favored given their home field and Celta’s slightly better season form. The BTTS line is well balanced, and the Over 2.5 market is enticing given both teams’ attacking performances and previous H2H records. The likelihood of a draw remains significant—almost a third of bookies’ implied probability—also aligning with previous results.

Girona vs Celta Vigo Over/Under Analysis

• Four of Girona’s last five matches have seen over 2.5 goals scored.
• Each of Celta Vigo’s last three away matches has ended with at least three total goals.
• Both teams scored in five of the last six matches across all competitions for these sides.
• Celta’s offensive efficiency is on an upward trend, as seen by their 75 total shots in the last five fixtures.

Girona Preview

Girona enter this fixture with only one win in their last five matches, including recent draws with Alavés (2-2) and Sevilla (1-1), a resilient victory over Barcelona (2-1), but narrow losses reflecting ongoing defensive concerns. Coach Míchel has persisted with a 4-2-3-1 system, seeking midfield balance and rapid ball progression through Lemar and Tsygankov. However, the side’s pass completion has dropped below 86% in recent games, and defensive frailties are apparent—with 40 goals conceded already this campaign.

Celta Vigo Preview

Celta Vigo have looked stronger, with three wins and three draws from their last seven matches across competitions. A tightly contested draw with RCD Espanyol (2-2) and victories over Mallorca (2-0) and Osasuna bear testament to their improving chemistry and tactical execution. Manager Claudio Giráldez’s reliance on a 4-2-3-1 formation has paid dividends, enabling Aspas to thrive in open spaces while midfielders like Williot Swedberg chip in with crucial goals. Their approach is built on pressing and swift initiations from the back, although occasional defensive lapses persist, as evidenced by their 27 goals conceded.

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As Tips.GG experts, we anticipate another even contest, with a 2-2 draw the most likely outcome. Girona possess enough attacking power at home, driven by Lemar’s creativity, while Celta Vigo’s uptick in form and Aspas’ clinical finishing balance the scales. Our AI prediction engine estimates a 36% probability for Girona to win, 31% for a draw, and 33% for a Celta victory in this La Liga mid-table battle.

How to watch Girona vs Celta Vigo

When? March 1, 2026
Kick-off time: 22:00 CEST
Where? Estadi Montilivi, Girona
How to watch: Via regional broadcasters in Spain, La Liga TV, or eligible international streaming platforms.
Favorite: Girona

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