Girona vs Atletico Madrid Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga 2024/25 Match - 25.05.2025

The 2024/25 La Liga season arrives at a decisive moment as Girona plays host to Atletico Madrid at the Estadi Montilivi on May 25th, 2025, with kick-off at 15:00 CEST. With both sides aiming to cement their campaigns with a statement victory, the encounter promises high tactical intensity and emotional stakes. For Girona and their supporters, this match represents an opportunity to finish strong in front of their home crowd. Atletico Madrid, managed by the indefatigable Diego Simeone, seek crucial points to secure their position in the upper echelons of the league. Estadi Montilivi, known for its passionate Catalan atmosphere, will set the stage for a clash laden with La Liga drama.

Key players to watch include Girona’s evergreen striker Christian Stuani, whose four goals in the last five matches underline his enduring threat in the box, and Atletico’s prolific Norwegian forward Alexander Sørloth, a clinical finisher with an astonishing five goals in his last five league games. These two will be pivotal in breaking defensive lines and setting the tempo for their respective clubs.

Hot stat: Atletico Madrid have scored 11 goals in their last five matches, doubling Girona’s tally and underscoring Los Colchoneros’ attacking potency down the final stretch of the season.

🏅Best bets for Girona vs Atletico Madrid at Thunderpick with a Welcome offer +100% up to 600€💰

Girona vs Atletico Madrid predictions

My best bet: Atletico Madrid to win.
This prediction is anchored by Atletico’s superior form, recent attacking output, and tactical discipline. With 14 wins from their last 28 matches this season and an away winrate of 50 percent in the past month, Simeone’s side have the momentum to overpower a Girona outfit struggling with consistency and efficiency in front of goal.

Girona’s style under Míchel is characterized by patient build-up and structured possession (70 percent pass accuracy over the last five matches), but recent form betray concerns: a single win in their past five, and a negative goal difference indicate vulnerabilities. Their disciplinary record is also notable—seven yellow cards in five games—suggesting a physical approach that could backfire against a side as tactically sharp as Atletico. The visitors, meanwhile, have demonstrated both attacking flow (61 shots over five matches) and controlled aggression, with only three yellow cards accumulated in the same period.

Prop picks by me:

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

Best bets this month available at Thunderpick

Girona vs Atletico Madrid Most recent H2Hs

When these sides last met, Atletico Madrid recorded a resounding 3-0 victory away from home. The visitors controlled the narrative with almost three times as many shots as Girona and a superior passing accuracy (76 percent). While Girona maintained their combative edge, Atletico’s structured pressing and rapid transitions repeatedly unsettled the home side. Historically, Simeone’s teams have frustrated Girona’s attacking attempts with tactical rigidity and swift exploitation of defensive lapses.

🚨Read our full Girona vs Atletico Madrid stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Atletico Madrid have scored 11 goals in their last 5 La Liga matches, with Alexander Sørloth accounting for nearly half.
• Girona have failed to keep a clean sheet in their previous four home matches.
• Girona’s disciplinary record: 7 yellow cards in their last 5 matches, compared to just 3 for Atletico Madrid.
• Atletico Madrid average 12.2 shots per match, among the league’s highest.
• Christian Stuani remains Girona’s most reliable scorer with 4 goals in his last 5 games.
• Atletico’s pass accuracy sits at an impressive 87 percent across the season, facilitating smooth transitions and control.

Girona vs Atletico Madrid score prediction: 1-3

The likely scenario is that Atletico Madrid will dominate proceedings, exploiting Girona’s defensive frailties and capitalizing on set-piece opportunities. Sørloth and Julián Álvarez are expected to contribute on the score sheet, ably supported by Antoine Griezmann’s creativity. For Girona, veteran Stuani’s predatory instincts may yield a consolation, but sustaining pressure against Atletico’s robust defensive shape will be challenging.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Atletico Madrid the favourite

• Moneyline Girona 3.70 | Atletico Madrid 1.97
• Draw 3.75
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 1.95
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.75 | No 2.10

The bookmakers have installed Atletico Madrid as the clear favorite owing to superior squad depth, form, and their deadly counterattacking style. The short odds for an away win reflect confidence in Simeone’s tactical blueprint, while Girona’s long price signals doubts about their ability to withstand Atletico’s multi-faceted attack.

Girona vs Atletico Madrid Over/Under Analysis

• In their last 5 matches, Atletico Madrid games have gone Over 2.5 goals in 4 instances.
• Girona’s last 5 matches have averaged 2.2 goals, just below the Over line.
• Combined attack and occasional defensive lapses from both sides make Over 2.5 a strong play.
• Atletico Madrid’s forwards (Sørloth, Álvarez, Correa) are in scoring form, increasing the chances of a high-scoring encounter.

Girona Preview

Girona’s recent outings have reflected a challenging run of form. In their previous five league matches, they have managed only two victories—including gritty wins over Mallorca (1-0) and Real Valladolid (1-0). However, narrow losses to Real Sociedad (2-3) and Villarreal (0-1) as well as a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Leganes, reveal defensive vulnerabilities and a difficulty in sustaining offensive pressure. Despite Christian Stuani’s continued prowess in front of goal, the side’s build-up frequently falters in the final third. The home side will look to their disciplined midfield to control possession, but lapses in focus and susceptibility to quick counters may once again haunt them against top-tier opposition.

Atletico Madrid Preview

Atletico Madrid’s latest matches indicate renewed attacking verve, having dispatched Real Sociedad 4-0 and Real Betis 4-1 with commanding displays. Their solitary recent defeat, a 0-2 home reversal to Osasuna, was quickly forgotten as Los Colchoneros quickly rediscovered their rhythm and defensive discipline against subsequent opponents. Standout performances from Alexander Sørloth, who has found the net five times in as many appearances, and the creativity of Julián Álvarez and Antoine Griezmann have revitalized Atletico’s forward line. Simeone’s hallmark remains evident: compact defense, high pressing, and incisive transitions. Expect Atletico to impose their identity early and sustain pressure throughout the ninety minutes.

The Verdict

As the Tips.GG expert, my main pick is Atletico Madrid to secure a convincing victory. Their superior form, goal-scoring threat, and defensive organization give them a decisive advantage in this La Liga fixture. Girona’s home record is modest, and while they pose threats via Stuani, Atletico’s tactical maturity will likely nullify these efforts. According to our AI prediction engine, the probability of an Atletico Madrid win stands at 48 percent, with Girona at 26 percent and a draw at 26 percent.

How to watch Girona vs Atletico Madrid

When? Sunday, 25 May 2025
Kick-off time: 15:00 CEST
Where? Estadi Montilivi, Girona
How to watch: Via official La Liga broadcasters and select live streaming platforms.
Favorite: Atletico Madrid

Best football betting sites and Bonuses

More useful links for football fans

• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG