Girona vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga - 14.03.2026

On 14 March 2026, Estadi Montilivi in Girona will witness a compelling mid-table showdown as Girona squares off against Athletic Bilbao in round 28 of the La Liga 2025/26 regular season. Set to kick off at 15:00 CEST, this match is pivotal for both sides as they look to break away from mid-table congestion and push towards the top half of the standings. The storied Estadi Montilivi, renowned for its fervent home support, will provide a fitting backdrop to two sides eager for momentum as the business end of the season approaches.

For Girona, Viktor Tsygankov has been the creative spark, his movement on and off the ball posing persistent questions for opposing defenders. Meanwhile, Athletic Bilbao relies on the dynamism of Iñaki Williams, a forward whose pace and directness can alter the course of any match. Both players will be crucial in dictating the attacking tempo.

A standout “hot stat” heading into this matchup: Athletic Bilbao has accumulated 16 yellow cards in their last five matches, nearly double Girona’s tally, underscoring the Basque side’s intense and at times aggressive approach in midfield battles.

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Girona vs Athletic Bilbao predictions

Me best bet: Draw (X). The equilibrium between these two sides is difficult to dismiss. Both have exhibited recent inconsistency Girona with three draws in their last five, Bilbao with three losses and a draw but they remain capable of producing moments of inspiration. Their similar possession-based 4-2-3-1 formations suggest a cagey, tactically contested affair, and their previous H2H record this season ended all square. This evenly matched scenario provides the best value on the draw, reinforced by both teams’ inability to string together consecutive victories.

Stylistically, Girona emphasises controlled build-up and high technical quality but struggles under intense pressure, reflected in lower interception and higher fouls compared to their rivals. Bilbao’s aggressive pressing and physical edge secure more interceptions (39 vs Girona’s 29 in recent matches), yet this also sees them walk a disciplinary tightrope with more frequent yellow cards (16 vs 7). Both teams operate with similar ball movement philosophies, but expect disruptions and transitions likely resulting in fragmented rhythm and opportunities from set pieces.

Prop picks by me:

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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Girona vs Athletic Bilbao Most recent H2Hs

Their most recent encounters display a balanced rivalry: this season, they shared the spoils (1–1), while last year saw a 2–1 victory for Girona at home and a 3–0 Bilbao triumph in the reverse fixture. Tactical discipline features prominently, with both teams trusting in their preferred shape. However, Bilbao’s ability to capitalise on physical duels and transitions, offset by a sometimes reckless approach, creates volatility. Girona’s technical edge at home cannot be underestimated, but recurring defensive lapses have complicated their path to victory.

🚨Read our full Girona vs Athletic Bilbao stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Bilbao have received 16 yellow cards in their last 5 matches compared to Girona’s 7.
• Girona have drawn 3 of their last 5 La Liga games.
• Both sides average 12 total shots per match over their last 5 fixtures.
• Athletic Bilbao edges Girona in interceptions (39 vs 29, last 5 matches).
• Girona’s pass accuracy is significantly higher (87.2 percent vs 74.3 percent, last 5).
• Bilbao’s away win rate in their last 7 matches stands at 43 percent.
• Both last league meetings at Montilivi produced goals for each team.

Girona vs Athletic Bilbao score prediction: 1-1

Given the tactical parity and pronounced defensive intensity, a 1-1 result emerges as the most plausible outcome. Expect Tsygankov to play a pivotal creative role for Girona, while Iñaki Williams remains a constant threat for the visitors. Both Unai Simón and Paulo Gazzaniga provide reliable last lines of defence heightening the expectation that goals will come from set pieces or quick transitions rather than open play.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletic Bilbao the favourite

While bookmakers list Bilbao as a marginal favourite (36 percent vs Girona’s 35 percent win probability), the draw’s implied probability underscores a high likelihood for shared spoils. The over/under tips slightly towards a lower-scoring game mirrored by both teams’ difficulty in converting chances and the defensively structured matchups historically between these sides. The market also values the probability of both teams scoring, reflecting both sides’ tendency to concede.

Girona vs Athletic Bilbao Over/Under Analysis

• Girona have averaged 1.2 goals per game in their last 5; Bilbao, 1.0.
• Both sides have kept only one clean sheet in their last 5 matches.
• Under 2.5 goals landed in four of the last five meetings across all competitions.
• Corners have averaged above 9.5 per meeting in recent clashes.

Girona Preview

Girona arrives at this fixture off a three-game winless streak, drawing 1-1 against Levante most recently. Despite the lack of victories, Míchel’s side showed resilience in holding Barcelona to a stunning 2-1 win two rounds back, yet persistent defensive frailties have cost them vital points. Lapses in concentration, particularly late in matches, remain a concern, as does the relatively low conversion rate up front. In their last five, Girona’s attack has been industrious but often lacked the sharpness required to tilt tight games.

Girona possible starting eleven

Athletic Bilbao Preview

Athletic Bilbao travels to Montilivi seeking stability after a challenging run three losses in their last seven, yet wins over lower-table sides have kept them clear of the relegation zone. Their 0-1 home defeat to Barcelona revealed a side capable of organisation but also vulnerable to pace and width. Ernesto Valverde has encouraged attacking width through Iñaki Williams and Gorka Guruzeta, though a lack of creativity in midfield sometimes forces direct play. The Basques’ physical intensity, while a hallmark, has also resulted in frequent bookings, potentially limiting aggression late in games.

Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven

The Verdict

After in-depth tactical comparison and assessment of recent form, our TipsGG expert panel predicts a tightly contested match ending in a 1-1 draw. Both teams have the quality to edge this contest, but stylistic similarities and a history of competitive draws point squarely towards another evenly balanced encounter. According to our dedicated AI prediction engine, Girona has a 35 percent probability, Athletic Bilbao a 36 percent probability, and a draw stands at 29 percent reflecting razor-thin margins and reaffirming the value in backing the stalemate.

How to watch Girona vs Athletic Bilbao

• When? Friday, 14 March 2026
• Kick-off time: 15:00 CEST
• Where? Estadi Montilivi, Girona, Spain
• How to watch: Live on La Liga TV, select regional sports networks, or via official streaming platforms.
• Favorite: Athletic Bilbao

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