Liam Duckstein
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Genoa host Como at the Luigi Ferraris on Matchday 3 of the 2026/27 Serie A season, and the gap between these two clubs right now is hard to ignore. Genoa sit 16th with zero points from two games and no goals scored, while Como arrive with four points and a win already on the board. Daniele De Rossi’s side have been outscored 3-0 in their opening fixtures, which makes this a genuinely difficult evening at home. Cesc Fàbregas’s Como, meanwhile, are building on what they started last season and look capable of making it uncomfortable for any mid-table or struggling side in Italy.
Two players worth tracking closely are Tommaso Baldanzi for Genoa, who leads the side in shots across recent matches with 11 attempts in three games, and Martin Baturina for Como, who has contributed two goals and one assist in four appearances and carries a consistent threat from midfield. Como striker Anastasios Douvikas also demands attention, having registered 11 shots and two goals in his last four outings.
A standout stat from recent matches: Como racked up 60 total shots across their last five games compared to Genoa’s 43, and their pass accuracy across that sample sits at 1,850 out of 2,091 attempted passes. That level of control in possession will be a serious test for a Genoa side that shipped ten goals in a single friendly against Bournemouth earlier this summer.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Luigi Ferraris, Genoa |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Genoa vs Como Prediction
The bookmakers have Como as heavy favourites at around 1.73-1.88, and the underlying numbers support that view. Genoa have failed to score in both Serie A matches this season and their defensive record is poor. Como, by contrast, beat Napoli 2-1 in their most recent Serie A outing and drew with Udinese before that, showing they can pick up points against credible opposition.
We predict a Como win. The visitors carry more attacking variety, their midfield controls games well, and Genoa have shown no signs of finding their feet in the early weeks of the season. The away win market at roughly 1.73-1.88 offers fair value given the weight of evidence pointing in Como’s direction.
Genoa averaged just under nine fouls per match across their last five games, and Como committed a higher volume at roughly seven per match but also won considerably more free kicks with 47 to Genoa’s 35. Como’s disciplined yellow card record of just one across five matches compared to Genoa’s five suggests Fàbregas’s side manage their aggression better and are less likely to concede dangerous set pieces in vulnerable moments. That composure on the ball and in the tackle is part of why they have been more effective recently.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Como to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Genoa have picked up two wins in their last six matches overall, losing four times. Their Serie A campaign opened with defeats to Napoli (0-2) and Lazio (0-1), and both results reflected a side that struggled to create. In pre-season and cup competition, they did beat Ascoli 4-1, but their only competitive-looking result in recent memory was that win, and the level of opposition was modest. The 2-10 loss to Bournemouth is an outlier in terms of scoreline but it does point to defensive fragility that has carried into the new league season.
Como have been more consistent, going unbeaten in three of their last four matches. Their 2-1 win over Napoli was the highlight, showing real quality in tight games. The 0-2 loss to Liverpool in a friendly context was against Champions League-level opposition, and the 1-1 draw with Arsenal further underlines that Fàbregas is testing his squad at the highest level during preparation. Their draw with Udinese in Serie A showed they can stay disciplined when results do not go their way.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Genoa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Genoa vs Como stats page for more info.
The head-to-head record across the last four meetings tells a clear story. Como have won two of those four encounters, Genoa none, with two draws. The aggregate goals tally of 2-5 in Como’s favour reflects a pattern that has repeated consistently across both seasons these clubs have shared Serie A football.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Como the Favourite
- Moneyline Genoa 5.50 | Como 1.67
- Draw 3.40
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The Como win price ranging from 1.67 to 1.88 across bookmakers reflects a strong consensus. Genoa at 5.00-5.50 is not without appeal as a speculative punt given home advantage, but nothing in the data right now justifies backing them to win. The draw at 3.05-3.45 is worth noting as a side option if you want coverage, but with Como’s current form and Genoa’s inability to score, the away win feels like the cleaner call.
Possible Starting Lineups
Genoa Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Justin Bijlow
- DF: Stefano Sabelli, Alessandro Marcandalli, Johan Vásquez, Leo Østigård
- MF: Morten Frendrup, Djibril Sow, Mikael Ellertsson, Tommaso Baldanzi
- FW: Vítor Oliveira, Lorenzo Colombo
De Rossi has been leaning on a 4-3-3 shape, and this group reflects those who have seen the most minutes across the last five matches. Justin Bijlow starts in goal having accumulated the most playing time among the keepers. Baldanzi is the key creative outlet from a deeper position and his shot volume makes him the most likely source of any Genoa threat going forward. Lorenzo Colombo leads the line and has a goal to his name in this run, making him the focal point up top.
Como Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jean Butez
- DF: Jacobo Ramón, Trevoh Chalobah, Álex Valle, Yan Couto
- MF: Luis Milla, Maximo Perrone, Martin Baturina, Nico Paz
- FW: Anastasios Douvikas, Assane Diao Diaoune
Fàbregas typically lines up in a 4-2-3-1 structure, and this eleven is drawn from the players with the highest appearance counts across Como’s last five matches. Jean Butez is the clear starter in goal with six saves in four games. Jacobo Ramón and Trevoh Chalobah provide solidity at the back, while Luis Milla anchors the midfield with 261 passes and nine interceptions in four appearances. Baturina and Douvikas are the players to watch, combining for four goals across this sample, and they represent the most direct route to a Como goal at the Luigi Ferraris.
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Genoa. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a Como win at the Luigi Ferraris. Genoa have not scored in either of their Serie A games this season, and their recent form across all competitions shows a side still searching for structure under De Rossi. Como arrive with a win over Napoli behind them, better passing numbers, more shots, and a pair of in-form attackers in Baturina and Douvikas.
The Como win to nil tip is backed by Genoa’s inability to find the net and Como’s defensive discipline, which has produced just one yellow card across five matches. With corners also expected to be plentiful given Como’s aggressive approach in the final third, the over 8.5 corners market offers additional interest. The away side are the right pick here.
