Freiburg vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction: 22.01.2026 UEFA Europa League

With the UEFA Europa League league phase nearing its conclusion, Freiburg host Maccabi Tel Aviv at Europa-Park Stadion in a clash heavy with implications—though both find themselves at opposite ends of the spectrum in form and fortune. Freiburg are jockeying for a coveted playoff spot, while Maccabi Tel Aviv search for a spark in a continental campaign that so far has yielded just a single point. Yet in football, pressure presents opportunity, and eyes across Europe will be on whether the Israeli side can upset the narrative in what appears, on paper, a daunting tie.

For Freiburg, the creative dynamism of Vincenzo Grifo and the rising goal threat of Igor Matanovic will be central—they combine flair with ruthless efficiency in the final third. Maccabi Tel Aviv, meanwhile, will likely depend on Ido Shahar’s late runs from midfield and Roy Revivo’s energy down the flank to compete against a well-drilled German side.

The “hot stat”? Freiburg enter this fixture with an unbeaten home European record this campaign (4 wins, 2 draws), while Maccabi Tel Aviv have scored just 2 goals and conceded a staggering 18 in six group matches—an imbalance that speaks volumes.

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Freiburg vs Maccabi Tel Aviv prediction

The best value for this match is a Freiburg win with a comfortable margin. The gulf in quality, recent league performances, and home advantage point strongly in the German side’s favor. Maccabi Tel Aviv’s defensive frailties—highlighted by 18 goals shipped and 16 shots faced on average per Europa League match—make this encounter an uphill battle for Zarko Lazetic’s men. Freiburg’s structure, under Julian Schuster, is disciplined and patient, often controlling matches through their double pivot and exploiting transitions with width.

Freiburg apply a moderate press and are not afraid to turn up the physicality when needed: they have committed 43 fouls and collected 9 yellows in the last 5 matches, while Maccabi Tel Aviv are a bit rash themselves, with 51 fouls and 9 yellows. Both sides’ inclination for midfield duels means a high number of stoppages, but Freiburg’s superior accuracy (passing at 81%) sets the stage for controlled possession and territorial dominance. Corners could flow too—Maccabi Tel Aviv have forced 29 in their last 5 outings, but Freiburg’s clinical finishing may limit the visitors’ chances of sustaining attacks.

Team Analysis

Freiburg’s recent games show a team with character and tactical evolution. The 2-2 draw against Augsburg underscores their attacking resolve but exposes some lapses in defensive concentration. Even in their 0-2 setback to RB Leipzig, Freiburg showed resilience against a high-pressing side, holding possession for stretches and testing the opposition keeper repeatedly. In the 4-3 spectacle against Wolfsburg, they came from behind with well-timed substitutions and pressing triggers from midfield—a tactical hallmark under Schuster this year. All told, two wins, a draw, and a loss in their last four offer a fair reflection: Freiburg are dangerous at home, especially when Matanovic is on song and Grifo is allowed the freedom to roam.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s latest run featured a morale-boosting 6-5 goal-fest over Hapoel Tel Aviv—a rare highlight amid defensive chaos. While they edged Sakhnin 1-0 and beat Hapoel Jerusalem 3-1, the 1-4 thrashing by Maccabi Haifa lays bare the team’s susceptibility in transition and set-pieces. Issues in maintaining discipline (three recent games with at least one player booked) continue to undermine progress. Still, hints of creativity shine: Ido Shahar’s midfield surges and Elad Madmon’s direct running often carve out shooting chances, even if the conversion rate needs work.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Freiburg vs Maccabi Tel Aviv stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Freiburg the favourite

• Moneyline Freiburg 1.18 | Maccabi Tel Aviv 16.50
• Draw 7.75
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.72 | Under 2.5 2.00
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.12 | No 1.68

These odds don’t pull any punches: the market has Freiburg as the overwhelming favorite, reflecting their strong group-phase campaign, home invincibility, and Maccabi Tel Aviv’s defensive record. Even with heavy rotation or complacency, Freiburg’s depth should tell. Over 2.5 goals is a strong shout with Freiburg sure to press their attacking advantage; BTTS “No” appeals given Maccabi’s toothlessness in front of goal. There’s minimal upside betting against the grain—the numbers and form back up the favorites here.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Freiburg possible starting eleven

This lineup draws heavily on Freiburg’s consistent core over their last five matches, presenting a logical 4-2-3-1 with Treu and Jung offering width at fullback and Grifo/Beste supporting the evergreen Matanovic. Ginter’s experience at the back will be critical, particularly with Eggestein anchoring the midfield transitions. Watch Grifo for match-defining moments—his playmaking has been irrepressible of late.

Maccabi Tel Aviv possible starting eleven

Maccabi Tel Aviv also stick to a 4-2-3-1, merging the youth of Melika in goal and Shahar’s dynamic presence in midfield. Revivo will need to curb his attacking instincts to help shore up the defense, but Yehezkel’s eye for an incisive run offers their best hope of unsettling the Freiburg rear guard. Expect Madmon and Davida to interchange, searching for space between the lines.

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My take on the Match

Freiburg look every bit the tournament dark horse—solid, motivated, and ruthless at home. While nothing in football is ever a total certainty, it’s hard to see the Israeli visitors stifling the German side’s movement or keeping the score down for long. My main pick is Freiburg -2.0 Asian Handicap; Grifo, Matanovic, and their supporting cast should carve out enough opportunities against a Maccabi Tel Aviv side that simply hasn’t adapted to this level. Expect a composed display from Schuster’s men, likely sealing their passage to the Europa League knockouts in style.

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