Levi Rothermund
SC Freiburg and Derby County meet on July 24 in a pre-season friendly that carries an interesting narrative beneath the surface. Derby enter as bookmakers’ favorites despite facing a Bundesliga side, reflecting their stronger recent form across this summer’s fixtures. Julian Schuster’s Freiburg side has been inconsistent in pre-season, including a 0-3 loss to Aston Villa in their most recent outing, while John Eustace’s Derby have shown genuine attacking intent across their summer schedule. One angle worth watching: Derby have already beaten a Championship-level opponent in Sheffield United this pre-season, suggesting they are further along in their preparation.
Keep an eye on Derby’s attacking shape under Eustace, who has built a side capable of pressing high and transitioning quickly. Freiburg’s midfield structure under Schuster will be tested in those transitional moments. On the Freiburg side, watch how their defensive unit responds after conceding three against Villa — that match exposed some structural vulnerabilities that Derby’s forwards could target.
Hot stat: Freiburg have conceded in four of their last five pre-season matches, including back-to-back multi-goal losses, which makes the case for goals in this fixture compelling.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026 – July Phase |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:00 CEST |
Freiburg vs Derby Prediction
The bookmakers lean heavily toward Derby at 48% implied probability, and honestly, that reflects what the form data shows. Freiburg have not played a competitive match in the last 30 days, while Derby have one game on record in that window — a 2-0 win over Alfreton. Freiburg’s year-to-date win rate sits at 43% across 30 matches, and Derby edge them out at 54% across 24 games. The gap in recent sharpness is real.
We think Derby win this match. Their pre-season record shows wins over QPR (3-2), Oxford United (1-0), and Sheffield United (1-2 loss aside), and they have looked purposeful in attack. Freiburg’s 0-3 defeat to Aston Villa in their last match is hard to ignore — that was a heavy pre-season loss that suggests they are still building fitness and cohesion. Derby, by contrast, appear sharper and more organized at this stage of pre-season.
On style of play, neither team’s detailed match statistics are available for the last five games, but based on their recent results, Derby appear to be a compact, transition-focused side under Eustace — a coach known for organized defensive structure and quick vertical play. Freiburg under Schuster typically operate with high pressing and structured build-up, but when that pressing is bypassed, they can be exposed in behind, as Villa demonstrated.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Derby to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Freiburg’s pre-season has been a mixed bag. They beat RB Leipzig 4-1 and Braga 3-1 in encouraging fashion, but sandwiched those results with a 2-3 home loss to Hamburger SV and a 1-1 draw with Wolfsburg. The most recent result — a 0-3 defeat to Aston Villa — is the one that matters most heading into this fixture. That performance raised questions about their defensive organization and their ability to cope with physically and technically strong opposition. Freiburg have not played in the last 30 days, meaning this match could come too early for them to be at full sharpness.
Derby’s pre-season has been more consistent. They opened with a 1-0 win over Oxford United, beat QPR 3-2, then suffered a 1-2 loss to Norwich and a 1-2 defeat to Sheffield United before bouncing back with a 2-0 win over Alfreton — their most recent result. That Alfreton win, while coming against lower-league opposition, confirms they are finding their rhythm as pre-season progresses. Eustace’s side have shown they can score goals and grind out results, and their 54% win rate across 24 matches in 2026 is a solid indicator of consistency.
Freiburg. Source: Official Facebook
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
Freiburg and Derby have one recorded meeting in this data set, from this same International Club Friendly tournament window. That match ended 0-0, which tells us very little about the likely outcome here — it may have been an early-phase fixture with rotated squads.
| Statistic | Freiburg | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Freiburg vs Derby stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Derby the Favourite
- Moneyline Freiburg 1.91 | Derby 3.00
- Draw 4.20
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Bovada pricing Freiburg at 1.91 feels like it underestimates the form gap between these two sides. Derby at 3.00 looks like genuine value given their recent results and the fact that Freiburg just absorbed a three-goal defeat. The draw at 4.20 is not unattractive if you believe both sides are still building fitness, but we think Derby’s sharper preparation makes them the smart pick. The Freiburg price reflects their Bundesliga pedigree more than their current pre-season form, and in a friendly setting, that pedigree counts for less.
Possible Starting Lineups
No confirmed player data is available for either squad in the provided match data. Both lineup sections are omitted as a result.
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Derby. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We back Derby to win this friendly. Their pre-season has been more active and their most recent result — a clean sheet win — points to a team that is organized and gaining momentum. Freiburg’s 0-3 loss to Aston Villa in their last match, combined with a 30-day gap in competitive activity, suggests they are behind Derby in terms of match sharpness.
The 0-0 head-to-head result in their only previous meeting this summer is interesting, but that fixture likely came at an earlier, less prepared stage for both clubs. Right now, Derby look the better-drilled side. We also lean toward a low-scoring match — maybe 1-0 or 2-0 to Derby — with Freiburg’s attacking output uncertain given their recent form. Derby to win and under 2.5 goals is our primary bet combination.
