Alex MacQuoid
Two sides that have both stumbled badly over the last month meet at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn for the first leg of their UEFA Conference League Second Qualifying Round tie. Flora Tallinn and The New Saints each won just one of their last five matches heading into this fixture, which makes the bookmakers’ 41% win probability for the hosts feel a touch generous. What makes this one genuinely interesting is that Flora are playing at home in an Estonian league season that is already well underway, while The New Saints arrive having just been eliminated from an earlier European round by Azerbaijani side Sabah Baku, losing both legs. European pedigree on paper, fragile form in practice – that tension defines both teams right now.
Rauno Sappinen leads Flora’s attacking line and has been on the scoresheet in recent outings, bringing a physical presence that Welsh defences have historically struggled to deal with in European ties. For The New Saints, Dominic Corness has been one of the few players to complete full 90-minute shifts in both recent matches, anchoring the midfield and offering the kind of positional discipline that Craig Harrison’s side will need if they are to stay compact and frustrate the hosts.
Hot stat: Flora Tallinn scored just 4 goals across their last 5 matches while also conceding in all three of their losses during that run – a sign that their defensive shape is genuinely unreliable despite home advantage.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27 – Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Flora Tallinn vs The New Saints Prediction
Bookmakers have Flora as marginal favourites at around 2.17-2.25, and that lines up with the home advantage and the fact that they are playing in a competitive domestic league environment. The New Saints, by contrast, have played largely against lower-tier Welsh and Irish opposition before being swept aside by Sabah Baku. That European exposure hasn’t done them any favours in terms of confidence.
We think the most value here sits in the “Both Teams to Score – No” market, or alternatively a Flora Tallinn win at around 2.17. The New Saints have scored just 1 goal across their last 5 matches, and that is a deeply concerning number for a side trying to get a positive result on the road in a European qualifier. Flora’s home record this season is far stronger than their overall form suggests, and Konstantin Vassiljev’s side do tend to be more aggressive and structured at A. Le Coq Arena.
On the style of play front, The New Saints picked up 4 yellow cards in their last 5 matches to Flora’s 3, and with a corner count of 5 to Flora’s 9 in the same window, it is clear that Flora generate far more set-piece pressure. That corner volume is significant – Flora have been winning wide areas consistently, which could be the source of any first-leg breakthrough. The New Saints’ tendency to foul and disrupt rather than press high could actually invite Flora into rhythm if they are patient enough.
- Flora Tallinn win
- Under 2.5 Goals
- Both Teams to Score: No
- Flora Tallinn to win to nil
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Flora Tallinn to Win to Nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Flora Tallinn’s recent run has been erratic in a way that their season record doesn’t fully reflect. They sit at 18 wins from 31 matches in 2026, a 58% win rate that looks solid, but the last 30 days tell a different story: one win, three losses, one draw. Their most recent match was a 1-2 home defeat to Nomme United, which is the kind of result that should not happen to a side of Flora’s calibre in the Estonian top flight. Before that, back-to-back matches against Iberia produced a draw and a loss, with Flora conceding 3 in the second fixture. The one bright spot in that stretch was a 2-1 win over Levadia, their main title rivals. Tony Varjund, Rauno Sappinen, Vladislav Kreida, and Sander Alamaa all contributed goals across the recent run, so the attacking options are there. The issue is consistency at the back, and Mihhail Kolobov’s yellow card in recent matches is a minor concern for the defensive shape.
The New Saints’ situation is arguably worse. Their 2026 win rate of 67% from 18 matches looks impressive, but that record is built almost entirely on Welsh Premier League and domestic cup opposition. In European competition, they have been poor: two losses to Bangor (1-2), two losses to Sabah Baku (0-2 and 1-2), and a narrow 2-1 win over HW Welders. That Sabah Baku elimination will sting. The Azerbaijani side are not a European powerhouse, and losing both legs without scoring in either is a serious warning sign about The New Saints’ ability to cope once the quality steps up. Jordan Williams and Ryan Brobbell lead the attack but neither has contributed a goal or assist in the last two matches. Nathan Sheppard in goal has been one of the few constants, completing both full 90s, but he is likely to be busy at A. Le Coq Arena.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
The two sides have not met in competitive football before this qualifier, so there is no historical head-to-head data to draw from. The upcoming first leg on 23 July is the opening chapter of this matchup.
🚨Check out our dedicated Flora Tallinn vs The New Saints stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Flora Tallinn the Favourite
- Moneyline Flora Tallinn 2.17 | The New Saints 2.86
- Draw 3.47
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds paint Flora as favourites but not by a commanding margin, which is fair given their poor recent form. At 2.17, a Flora win still offers decent value when you factor in home advantage and The New Saints’ inability to score in European competition. The draw at 3.47 is possible given how both sides have been grinding low-scoring, tight results, but we lean toward Flora finding a way to win without the match opening up into a free-scoring affair.
The New Saints. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Flora Tallinn Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Evert Grünvald
- DF: Robert Veering, Mihhail Kolobov, Oscar Pihela, Andreas Vaher
- MF: Vladislav Kreida, Maksim Kalimullin, Remo Valdmets
- FW: Sander Alamaa, Rauno Sappinen, Tony Varjund
Flora look set to line up in their familiar 4-3-3 under Vassiljev. Evert Grünvald has been the first-choice goalkeeper with the most consistent playing time. At the back, Kolobov and Veering have been regulars despite picking up yellow cards recently – Veering’s discipline will need to be managed carefully in a two-legged tie. In midfield, Kreida is the most direct goal threat from deep, having scored once in the last five matches. Up front, the trio of Alamaa, Sappinen, and Varjund all contributed goals in the recent run and form a fluid, experienced attacking unit. Sergei Zenjov offers experience from the bench and Rauno Alliku provides another option wide.
The New Saints Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Nathan Sheppard
- DF: Jack Bodenham, Dynel Simeu
- MF: Dominic Corness, Daniel Williams, Rhys Hughes, Daniel Redmond, Eoin Farrell
- FW: Jordan Williams, Ryan Brobbell
The New Saints have been using a 4-3-3 as well, though the available data suggests Craig Harrison has been flexible with his personnel. Nathan Sheppard is the clear first-choice goalkeeper and will be pivotal. Jack Bodenham and Dynel Simeu have been the most consistent defensive presences with full 90-minute appearances. In midfield, Corness is the one player who has been locked in for every minute, with Rhys Hughes and Daniel Williams providing energy around him – though Hughes picked up a yellow recently and Daniel Williams has a card too, so discipline in a compact away performance will be a theme. Brobbell and Jordan Williams carry the attacking responsibility, though honestly their output over recent weeks gives little reason for optimism.
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Flora Tallinn. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This is a match between two teams in poor short-term form, but the context favours Flora. They are at home, in a functioning domestic season, and facing a side that has failed to score in three of their last five matches. The New Saints’ European performances in this cycle have been genuinely bad – zero goals across two legs against Sabah Baku is not the record of a team that can go to Tallinn and get a positive result.
Flora’s corner count of 9 in 5 matches versus The New Saints’ 5 tells you something about how these teams generate pressure. Flora work the wide areas, win set pieces, and have multiple players capable of finishing. We think a 1-0 or 2-0 Flora win is the most likely outcome, with The New Saints defending deep and struggling to create anything meaningful in transition. The over 8.5 corners market also looks attractive given Flora’s style and the likely defensive shape of the visitors.
Our prediction: Flora Tallinn Win, Under 2.5 Goals, Both Teams to Score No.
