Rafael Nogueira
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Flamengo welcome Estudiantes LP to Maracanã for the semifinal second leg with the tie still locked at 0-0 after a cagey first encounter in La Plata. Leonardo Jardim’s side arrive unbeaten in fifteen matches and fresh off a 3-0 statement win over Bahia, while Alexander Medina’s Estudiantes have won just once in their last seven games. The interesting wrinkle here is that these two clubs have already met four times this year alone, with Flamengo winning three and drawing one, yet the only goalless scoreline between them came in the match that mattered most.
Lucas Paquetá has scored twice and assisted once across Flamengo’s last five outings and remains the player most likely to unlock a stubborn Estudiantes block. On the other side, Edwuin Cetre has been directly involved in three goals over the same stretch and offers Medina’s only real source of unpredictability going forward.
Hot stat: Estudiantes have been caught offside eleven times across their last five matches compared to just three for Flamengo, a sign Medina’s forwards keep mistiming their runs against disciplined back lines, exactly the kind of defense Flamengo will set up at Maracanã.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Libertadores 2026, Semifinals |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:30 CEST |
Flamengo RJ vs Estudiantes LP prediction
Our pick is Flamengo to win the second leg, and we see value in backing them on the Asian handicap rather than straight moneyline given the short price. A goalless first leg often sets up a nervier affair, but Flamengo’s home scoring form, three goals against Bahia, two against Bragantino, suggests the breakthrough comes sooner rather than later at Maracanã. Estudiantes have won once in seven matches across the last month and their away record in this exact tie already shows zero goals scored.
Flamengo’s passing numbers (2042 accurate passes, strong accuracy across the squad) point to control of territory, while Estudiantes commit more fouls per match and pick up more free kicks conceded, a pattern that tends to hand Flamengo set piece opportunities in dangerous areas. Estudiantes’ discipline problem, eleven offsides in five games, also suggests their high press could leave gaps behind for Flamengo’s wide forwards to exploit on the counter.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Flamengo RJ -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Flamengo arrive on a run of three wins and two draws from their last five, unbeaten since a single defeat buried deeper in their last fifteen matches. The most recent outing, a 3-0 win over Bahia, showed exactly the attacking sharpness this side can produce when facing a team struggling for goals, and Jardim’s rotation choices still produced a clean, controlled performance. In our preview of Bahia vs Flamengo RJ we called a tight single-goal win for the Brazilians paired with Under 2.5 goals, and the 3-0 result delivered the win comfortably but blew straight through that goals line, so the structured combination went against us even though the core pick, Flamengo to win, landed cleanly.
Estudiantes limp into this second leg having lost four of their last seven, including a 1-2 defeat to San Lorenzo in their most recent fixture. That loss continued a pattern of leaky defending, conceding in bunches against sides capable of exploiting space in behind, something Flamengo’s front three should look to replicate. Medina’s men have managed only one win in a month, and the squad looks stretched thin physically given the midweek Libertadores and domestic schedule overlap.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Flamengo RJ | Estudiantes LP |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 5 |
In our preview of Estudiantes LP vs Flamengo RJ we backed the Double Chance covering a Flamengo win or a draw, and the 0-0 first leg result landed that call exactly as planned.
🚨Check out our dedicated Flamengo RJ vs Estudiantes LP stats page for more info.
Estudiantes LP. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Flamengo RJ the favourite
- Moneyline Flamengo RJ 1.35 | Estudiantes LP 9.50
- Draw 4.50
Bookmakers price Flamengo at roughly 69% to win outright, a figure that lines up with their dominant home record and Estudiantes’ poor travelling form this past month. The draw sits close to 21%, reflecting how the first leg’s stalemate still weighs on oddsmakers’ minds, while Estudiantes’ 10% looks fair given they have not scored in either of their last two meetings with this exact opponent.
Possible Starting Lineups
Flamengo RJ possible starting eleven
- GK: Agustín Rossi
- DF: Emerson Royal, Léo Pereira, Vitão, Léo Ortiz
- MF: Erick Pulgar, Lucas Paquetá, Jorge Carrascal, Nicolas De la Cruz
- FW: Pedro, Samuel Lino
Jardim sticks with his trusted 4-2-3-1, with Rossi’s 21 saves across five games confirming his status as undisputed number one. Paquetá’s combination of goals and defensive discipline, three yellow cards included, makes him the player holding the midfield together, while Pedro’s five appearances and constant shot volume suggest he leads the line against a defense missing structure on the road.
Estudiantes LP possible starting eleven
- GK: Fabricio Iacovich
- DF: Eros Nazareno Mancuso, Gastón Benedetti, Santiago Núñez, Ramiro Funes Mori
- MF: Bautista Kociubinski, Lucas Piovi, Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez, Miguel Monsalve
- FW: Edwuin Cetre, Fabricio Pérez
Medina keeps the same 4-2-3-1 shape, leaning on Piovi and Kociubinski to break up Flamengo’s possession game through midfield. Cetre’s three goals in five matches make him the one attacker capable of punishing any Flamengo slip, but his isolation up front against a deeper Brazilian back line limits how often he actually sees the ball in dangerous zones.
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Flamengo RJ. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Flamengo advance comfortably, most likely winning by two clear goals at Maracanã. Estudiantes’ away form this month, one win in seven, combined with their complete failure to score across both legs of this tie so far, points toward a home side that controls territory and eventually breaks through. Perhaps the smarter structured angle sits with Flamengo on the handicap paired with Over 2.5 total goals, since their recent matches have consistently produced goals once they settle into a rhythm. To be hones, Estudiantes’ discipline issues and tired legs make a repeat 0-0 unlikely this time around.
Read also: Flamengo vs Estudiantes La Plata Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 21 Oct 2026
