Liam Duckstein
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Fiorentina host Juventus at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on Sunday night, 21:45 kickoff, with both clubs chasing very different objectives. The hosts sit 16th in Serie A on eight points from ten games, a single point above the relegation places. Juventus occupy seventh on 17 points, six adrift of fourth-placed Como, and Spalletti has them trending upward. The quirk in this fixture is hard to ignore: Juventus have failed to beat Fiorentina in each of their last four league meetings, a run that produced two home wins and two draws for the Florentines, yet the market still prices the visitors close to even money.
Two men shape this game more than most. Franco Mastantuono has been Fiorentina’s creative engine, firing 16 shots and winning 13 free kicks across his last five appearances. Nick Woltemade carries Juventus’s threat, with a goal, two assists and a team-high 11 shots in the same span.
Hot stat: Fiorentina have conceded exactly two goals in five consecutive matches, and they have scored in every one of them.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season (Italy) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence |
| 🗓️ Date: | 08.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:45 CEST |
Fiorentina vs Juventus prediction
Our best value play is the draw at 3.56. Juventus arrive with the tighter defence, three goals conceded in five matches, and a 47% win probability in the bookmakers’ average. They still have not taken three points off Fiorentina since December 2024. The last four meetings finished 2-2, 3-0, 1-1 and 2-0 in favour of the home side or level. Fiorentina’s defence leaks, but they score against this opponent every time, and their 4-2 win at Sassuolo last weekend restored belief. We predict a 2-2 draw, with both teams scoring and the goals market clearing over 2.5.
Style adds context. Fiorentina commit 12.2 fouls per game and collect 2.8 yellow cards, so bookings will pile up in midfield. Juventus foul at a similar rate, 12.6 per game, yet pick up only 1.6 cards, a sign of smarter timing. Both sides pass at 85% accuracy, Juventus edge the corner count 6.8 to 5.4 per game, and Randal Kolo Muani’s five offsides in five matches hint at a restless press that Fiorentina’s back line can trap. Set pieces loom large, because Mastantuono and Woltemade are the two biggest free-kick magnets on the pitch.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Fiorentina Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 10.5 |
Team Analysis
Fiorentina’s recent run reads one win, one draw and three defeats. The slide began with a 1-2 home loss to Genoa in mid-October, followed by a 1-3 collapse at Como and a 1-2 defeat to Inter where they competed for long stretches. A 2-2 draw with Atalanta showed their attacking ceiling, and last time out they dispatched Sassuolo 4-2 away from home. In our preview of Sassuolo vs Fiorentina we called an away win with goals at both ends, and the 4-2 result delivered it. Paolo Vanoli still needs to fix a defence that has shipped 23 goals in ten league games, one of the worst records in the division.
Juventus, under Luciano Spalletti, have lost once in five. Wins over Lecce (2-0), Napoli (2-0) and AZ Alkmaar (2-1) bookend a 2-2 draw with Rennes, and the lone blemish was a 0-2 stumble at Genoa. They have scored eight and conceded three across that stretch. In our preview of AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus we backed Juventus to edge a three-goal game, and the 2-1 win delivered it. Their midfield controls games through Douglas Luiz and Teun Koopmeiners, and the 494 passes per game they attempt is the platform everything else builds on.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These sides have met four times in the league since December 2024 and Juventus have not won any of them. Fiorentina won 3-0 in March 2025 and 2-0 in May 2026, with 2-2 and 1-1 draws either side of those results.
| Statistic | Fiorentina | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 80 | 66 |
| Free kicks | 56 | 46 |
| Corner kicks | 27 | 34 |
| Total fouls | 61 | 63 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 85 | 85 |
| Interceptions | 35 | 50 |
| Offsides | 9 | 12 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Fiorentina vs Juventus stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Juventus the favourite
- Moneyline Fiorentina 3.40 | Juventus 1.99
- Draw 3.56
Those prices are our averages across eight books, with bons the clear outlier at 2.54 on the home side. Implied probabilities work out to roughly 29% Fiorentina, 28% draw and 50% Juventus, which tracks the 27-26-47 split in the bookmakers’ consensus. To be honest, Juventus at 1.99 feels short for a fixture they have failed to win four times running, so the draw at 3.56 is where the value sits. Goal and BTTS prices vary too widely between the books we checked, and our staking focus stays on the match-odds markets.
Possible Starting Lineups
Fiorentina possible starting eleven
- GK: David De Gea
- DF: Domilson Dodo, Radu Drăguşin, Viery, Álex Jiménez
- MF: Nicolo Fagioli, Cher Ndour, Franco Mastantuono
- FW: Alieu Njie, Mateo Pellegrino, Wilfried Gnonto
Vanoli sticks with the 4-3-3 he has favoured all season. De Gea keeps his place after 19 saves in five matches and remains the last line of a defence that concedes in pairs. Marin Pongračić pushes Drăguşin for a starting spot after his goal against Atalanta, while Álex Jiménez offers width and a goal threat from the left. Alieu Njie, two goals and two assists in five games, is the home danger man, and Mastantuono will take the dead balls.
Juventus possible starting eleven
- GK: Guglielmo Vicario
- DF: Andrea Cambiaso, Gleison Bremer, Federico Gatti, Pierre Kalulu
- MF: Weston McKennie, Douglas Luiz, Teun Koopmeiners
- FW: Jérémie Boga, Randal Kolo Muani, Nick Woltemade
Spalletti also runs a 4-3-3, so the mirror shape should produce a crowded midfield. Vicario has ten saves in five starts, and Bremer anchors a back line that kept clean sheets against Napoli and Lecce. Woltemade drops deep to link play, his two assists lead the team, and Kolo Muani stretches defences with constant movement, perhaps at the cost of more offsides. Juan Cabal, Lloyd Kelly and Jhon Lucumi give the coach rotation cover, with Edon Zhegrova and Kerim Alajbegovic the impact options from the bench.
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Fiorentina. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict a 2-2 draw in Florence. Fiorentina have scored in every home meeting with Juventus across the last two seasons, and their habit of conceding exactly twice keeps the visitors on the scoresheet too, which locks in BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals. Juventus’s three clean sheets in five earn respect, yet Genoa and Rennes both found gaps behind Kalulu and Gatti recently, and Mastantuono’s set-piece delivery targets those seams. Expect over 10.5 corners in a stop-start contest between two foul-heavy sides. The Draw No Bet ticket on Fiorentina acts as our insurance leg, refunding the draw we expect and paying handsomely if the hosts repeat their 2-0 and 3-0 home wins from this fixture in recent seasons. Back the draw first, add the insurance second.
