Fiorentina vs Bologna Prediction: 18.05.2025 Serie A 2024/25 Preview

With just two rounds remaining in the 2024/25 Serie A regular season, Fiorentina and Bologna meet at Florence’s iconic Stadio Artemio Franchi in a clash brimming with European implications. Fiorentina, managed by the tactically astute Raffaele Palladino, host a Bologna side led by Vincenzo Italiano—ironically, a recent Fiorentina boss—adding a touch of narrative intrigue. While both sides are closely matched in the table, their current forms and approaches give this encounter the feel of a chess match, certain to influence the final standings and potential European placements.

All eyes will be on midfield dynamo Rolando Mandragora for Fiorentina, whose energy and scoring touch have offered a critical spark, and Bologna’s Thijs Dallinga, who, despite limited goals recently, provides constant movement and a pressing threat. With either of these players capable of turning the tie, this could be a contest settled in the margins.

Hot stat: Across their last five matches, Fiorentina have amassed a striking 20 yellow cards—an unusually high tally and a potential storyline for disciplined football or risky confrontations within this passionate fixture.

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Fiorentina vs Bologna prediction

Given the statistical split and historical results, the sharpest value bet here is on Draw No Bet: Bologna. Bologna have both the higher win rate over the past month (50 percent to Fiorentina’s 25 percent) and a more resilient record with just one defeat in six. Their tactical formation, the flexible 3-4-2-1, has allowed for superb transitions from defence to attack—something Fiorentina have struggled to contain, especially when deployed against top-half opposition.

The match is likely to be closely contested. Fiorentina’s high tally of yellow cards and fouls (20 yellows and 71 fouls in their last five) indicates an aggressive, sometimes rash style, which could be exploited by Bologna’s sharper passing and counterattacking. Meanwhile, Bologna have shown greater discipline (only 9 yellows and 51 fouls), a stat which could prove crucial in a match where tempers may flare and set pieces could decide the outcome.

Fiorentina generally dominate possession but can overcommit, with an impressive 2651 passes in their latest five matches, yet are sometimes let down by a slightly lower pass accuracy compared to Bologna. This hints at a blend of ambition and slight defensive looseness—traits that suit Bologna’s ability to spring into rapid attacks. Chances are, both sides will find the net, with Bologna’s disciplined style minimising risk but maximising reward.

Team Analysis

Fiorentina recent performances: The Viola’s recent run has been erratic, winning just two of their last eight matches—a last handful climaxing with a surprising 1-2 home defeat against Venezia. Their defensive stubbornness has wavered, notably conceding seven goals in their last five, and they’ve become increasingly prone to disciplinary issues. While Mandragora’s two goals have kept hopes alive, and Beltran has offered creativity, inconsistency up top and lapses at the back continue to undermine them, as seen against Roma (0-1) and Empoli (2-1).

Bologna recent performances: Bologna arrive in Florence having won three of their past six and lost only once, including a statement 1-0 home win over Milan. Their trademark defensive solidity was apparent in a resolute draw against Juventus (1-1) and a stalemate with Udinese. Thijs Dallinga remains the focal point of attack, supported ably by Dominguez and Orsolini. Perhaps most telling is their ability to grind results—a sign of maturity that has been absent in Fiorentina’s recent form. Only Milan managed to breach their lines substantially, showing Bologna’s structural discipline.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Fiorentina vs Bologna stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bologna the favourite

• Moneyline Fiorentina 3.00 | Bologna 2.55
• Draw 3.15
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.70
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.88 | No 1.89

The odds rightly mirror Bologna’s superior recent record but also reflect the league’s overall balance—Bologna are only narrow favourites, with value still lingering on the draw for punters. The Over 2.5 odds suggest bookmakers anticipate goals, not least given Fiorentina’s open games and Bologna’s proven attacking threat. Both teams to score remains short, with their previous meetings and season-long defensive slip-ups in mind. We’d side with Bologna but remain wary of the draw’s probability here.

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The Verdict

If history and form are anything to go by, the edge slightly favours Bologna, but expect a match full of twists—Fiorentina can never be counted out at home, especially with their supporters filling the Franchi. My pick? Bologna Draw No Bet offers the best blend of value and safety; yet, for the bold, over 2.5 goals could be tempting given both sides’ attacking intent and recent defensive wobbles. Momentum and discipline lean Bologna’s way, and with Dallinga and Orsolini prowling up front, the visitors seem poised to pounce if Fiorentina let their focus slip.

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