Liam Duckstein
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Fiorentina open their Coppa Italia campaign at Stadio Artemio Franchi against Benevento in what looks like a straightforward home assignment on paper. What makes this fixture worth a closer look is Benevento’s surprisingly strong form heading into it. Antonio Floro Flores’ side have won three of their last four matches without a single defeat, which is a record that most teams at this level would envy at the start of a new season.
Fabio Grosso’s Fiorentina, by contrast, have been inconsistent in recent weeks, picking up just two wins from their last six outings. The gap in quality between these two clubs is significant, but form tells a different story right now, and that contrast sets up an interesting dynamic for the opening round.
Two players to watch closely in this match are Moise Kean and Albert Gudmundsson. Kean found the net in Fiorentina’s most recent match and also drew a foul, showing the kind of physical presence that can trouble any lower-league backline. Gudmundsson, operating behind him, contributed an assist and created chances, though he did pick up a yellow card. His ability to combine with Kean in tight spaces could be the key to breaking Benevento down.
A hot stat from Fiorentina’s recent matches: in their last recorded game, they managed just 10 total shots and scored twice, giving them a conversion rate that suggests they are making their chances count despite not dominating possession at a high volume. That clinical edge could prove decisive in a cup tie where the margin for error is slim.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Coppa Italia 2026/27, Round 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence |
| 🗓️ Date: | 14.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:15 CEST |
Fiorentina vs Benevento Prediction
Fiorentina are heavy favourites and the bookmakers reflect that clearly, with odds as short as 1.20 on the home win. The Serie A side hold a massive structural advantage over a Benevento squad operating at a much lower level of Italian football. Despite Benevento’s good recent form, the quality gap here is hard to ignore.
We predict a Fiorentina win, and the most interesting value lies not just in the result but in how the match is likely to unfold. Fiorentina have shown they can score when it matters, and Benevento’s attacking threat, while real at their level, faces a step up in defensive quality tonight. A home win with goals at both ends is a real possibility given Benevento’s willingness to press forward, but Fiorentina’s defensive shape should limit them to one at most.
Fiorentina commit fouls at a moderate rate and have averaged 17 fouls in their tracked sample, which suggests they do not sit back passively. Combined with 14 free kicks conceded, there is enough set-piece danger to keep Benevento involved. That said, Fiorentina’s pass accuracy in their recent games has been solid, and their ability to control possession should allow them to dictate the tempo and keep Benevento’s attacking moments to a minimum.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Fiorentina to Win to Nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Fiorentina’s recent run has been patchy. Across their last six matches they collected two wins, one loss, and three draws. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw against Deportivo La Coruna, and before that they drew 2-2 with Real Madrid, which at least shows they can compete against elite opposition. A 1-0 win over Watford and a 1-0 win over Gubbio earlier in the run demonstrate they can grind out results, but a 2-3 loss to QPR remains a concern. That defeat revealed a vulnerability at the back that Benevento will be aware of.
Benevento arrive in Florence with real momentum. In their last five matches they beat Ravenna 5-3, drew 2-2 with Frosinone, beat Vis Pesaro 2-1, beat Ostia Mare 2-0, and thrashed Vicenza 4-1. That is four wins and one draw across those five games. The 5-3 win over Ravenna is the most recent result and it shows a team that is not afraid to attack, even if it means leaving gaps at the back. Scoring eight goals in two of their last three matches tells you plenty about their attacking intent.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
There is limited statistical data available from previous head-to-head meetings between these two sides, but the most recent registered encounter is the fixture itself.
| Statistic | Fiorentina | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 2 |
| Total shots | 10 | – |
| Free kicks | 14 | – |
| Corner kicks | 3 | – |
| Total fouls | 17 | – |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 343 | – |
| Interceptions | 9 | – |
| Offsides | 1 | – |
🚨Check out our dedicated Fiorentina vs Benevento stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Fiorentina the Favourite
- Moneyline Fiorentina 1.24 | Benevento 11.45
- Draw 5.80
- Over/Under Over 2.5 – | Under 2.5 –
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes – | No –
The odds on Fiorentina are extremely short, reflecting the bookmakers’ 75% win probability for the home side. At around 1.24, there is very little value in a straight Fiorentina win unless you are combining it in a multi. The draw at 5.80 and Benevento at 11.45 with Pinnacle look more like insurance prices than genuine market signals. To be honest, the best value in this market is not the outright result but rather the ancillary markets like clean sheet or total goals, where Fiorentina’s recent defensive record and Benevento’s attacking output create a genuine tension worth exploiting.
Possible Starting Lineups
Fiorentina Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: David De Gea
- DF: Radu Drăgușin, Viery, Luca Ranieri, Álex Jiménez
- MF: Rolando Mandragora, Cher Ndour, Nicolo Fagioli, Christ Inao Oulaï
- FW: Albert Gudmundsson, Moise Kean
Fabio Grosso is likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, consistent with Fiorentina’s preferred formation across their last five matches. David De Gea takes the starting spot in goal ahead of Oliver Christensen based on playing time. The back four picks itself with Drăgușin and Viery as the central pairing, both logging full 90-minute appearances. Mandragora and Ndour form a solid double pivot, with Fagioli and Oulaï providing creativity in the wider areas. Gudmundsson operates in the number ten role, supporting Kean as the focal point up front. Kean is the one to watch, having scored in the most recent match and with the physicality to cause problems from the first whistle.
Benevento Possible Starting Eleven
No player data is available for Benevento’s recent squad appearances. Their likely lineup will be based on Antonio Floro Flores’ preferred 4-2-3-1 system, which has served them well across their recent winning run, but specific player selections cannot be confirmed from the available data.
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Fiorentina. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Fiorentina should win this match. Their squad depth, home advantage, and the sheer gap in league level between the two clubs make anything other than a home victory a genuine surprise result. Benevento’s form is admirable and their attacking numbers are impressive, but scoring five against Ravenna or four against Vicenza is a different proposition entirely from finding a way past a Serie A defence.
We predict Fiorentina to win without conceding, perhaps 2-0 or 3-0. Kean and Gudmundsson have the tools to expose Benevento’s defensive frailties, which were on full display in that 5-3 win over Ravenna. Fiorentina’s midfield, anchored by Mandragora and Ndour, should control the tempo and deny Benevento the space they need to operate. A clean sheet for the hosts is the value play here, and Over 2.5 goals driven largely by Fiorentina’s output looks like a sensible addition.
