Liam Duckstein
Fiorentina and Atalanta face off at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence as the Serie A season draws to a close. Both teams have been inconsistent in recent weeks, but Atalanta’s higher league position and attacking intent suggest a compelling match in Tuscany. Gianluca Scamacca for Atalanta and Cher Ndour for Fiorentina are the standout players to watch. Scamacca has found the net twice in his last five games, consistently threatening in the box, while Ndour has shown promise in midfield with a goal and a solid work rate.
Hot stat: Atalanta have fired an impressive 81 shots across their last five matches, the highest among the two, showing their persistent attacking approach.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction
We predict a narrow win for Atalanta. The TipsGG punters team rates Atalanta’s away form and their attacking volume highly, despite their modest win rate. Fiorentina have struggled to convert draws into wins, managing only one win in their last five, while Atalanta’s ability to create chances gives them an edge. Atalanta’s solid away stats, combined with Scamacca’s recent form, tilt this match in their favor.
Both teams exhibit a physical approach. Fiorentina have picked up 7 yellow cards in five games and committed 48 fouls, whereas Atalanta have accumulated 8 yellows and 77 fouls showing their aggressive pressing. Atalanta’s higher passing accuracy (85%) points to better ball retention, while Fiorentina’s defensive setup (3-4-2-1) often absorbs pressure but can be broken by sustained attacks. Expect fouls and cards to influence the match’s rhythm, possibly leading to set-piece opportunities.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Over 10.5 Corners |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | 11 or more |
Team Analysis
Fiorentina’s most recent match ended with a commanding 2-0 win over Juventus, breaking a stretch of draws and losses. Their defensive discipline paid off, and they capitalized on limited chances. Despite a heavy 0-4 defeat to Roma previously, the squad showed resilience, bouncing back with a clean sheet against Genoa. Goals have been scarce, but they showed clinical finishing when needed against a tough Juventus side.
Atalanta, meanwhile, suffered a disappointing 0-1 loss to Bologna in their last outing, failing to capitalize on their attacking momentum from the previous 3-2 win over Milan. They have alternated between draws and narrow defeats, but their 3-2 win over Milan stands out as a testament to their offensive capability. The side often controls possession and launches waves of attacks but sometimes leaves gaps at the back, as seen in the loss to Cagliari.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Fiorentina | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 49 | 81 |
| Corner kicks | 18 | 23 |
| Total fouls | 48 | 77 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 83 | 85 |
| Interceptions | 25 | 74 |
| Offsides | 4 | 11 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Fiorentina vs Atalanta stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atalanta the favourite
- Moneyline Fiorentina 2.93 | Atalanta 2.25
- Draw 3.55
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.01 | Under 2.5 1.88
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.85 | No 1.95
The bookmakers give Atalanta a slight edge, pricing them as the favorite on most platforms. Draw odds remain high, reflecting both sides’ recent tendency to share points. Over 2.5 goals is well-priced, considering Atalanta’s recent attacking numbers and Fiorentina’s improved sharpness up front. Both teams to score is a probable outcome, given the defensive vulnerabilities displayed in recent matches.
Possible Starting Lineups
Fiorentina possible starting eleven
- GK: David De Gea
- DF: Domilson Dodo, Luca Ranieri, Robin Gosens
- MF: Nicolo Fagioli, Cher Ndour, Rolando Mandragora, Fabiano Parisi
- FW: Manor Solomon, Jack Harrison, Albert Gudmundsson
Fiorentina are likely to line up in their preferred 3-4-2-1 formation. David De Gea’s shot-stopping will be vital. Gosens and Dodo offer width and experience in defense, while Fagioli and Ndour anchor the midfield. Up front, Gudmundsson and Solomon can provide a creative spark, with Mandragora offering support in transition. Watch for Ndour’s energetic box-to-box play.
Atalanta possible starting eleven
- GK: Marco Carnesecchi
- DF: Berat Djimsiti, Sead Kolašinac, Giorgio Scalvini, Honest Ahanor
- MF: Marten de Roon, Éderson, Mario Pašalić
- FW: Gianluca Scamacca, Giacomo Raspadori, Nikola Krstović
Atalanta are expected to opt for a 4-3-3. Carnesecchi provides reliability in goal. Djimsiti and Scalvini form the core of the defense, supported by Kolašinac and Ahanor. Midfield sees the tireless de Roon, with Éderson and Pašalić pushing forward. Scamacca is the danger man up top, supported by Raspadori and Krstović, both capable of finding the net. This trio’s movement will test Fiorentina’s back line.
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Fiorentina. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Atalanta to edge this fixture. Their attacking output, higher shot count, and slightly superior passing accuracy signal they will control the key phases of the match. Fiorentina’s compact shape and defensive determination might frustrate Atalanta for periods, but Atalanta’s front line has enough quality to break through. Expect both sides to score, but Atalanta’s firepower should see them claim the points.
