Liam Duckstein
FC Astana and Dinamo Tirana meet again at the Astana Arena for the second leg of their UEFA Conference League 2026/27 First Qualifying Round tie. The Kazakhstani side holds a 1-0 advantage from the first leg, giving them a clear edge heading into this home fixture. Astana have been in outstanding domestic form, winning all three of their matches in the last 30 days, and their defense has been tight in European competition so far. The Albanian side, Dinamo Tirana, are not without quality though, and their attacking record in recent weeks shows they can score goals. Marin Tomasov, the experienced Croatian midfielder, has been directly involved in Astana’s goals this campaign, picking up two assists in the last two matches alone, making him the key creative force to watch. For Tirana, midfielder Klevi Qefalija has logged full minutes across both legs and is central to everything the Albanian side tries to build.
A hot stat worth noting: Dinamo Tirana attempted 26 total shots across their last five matches tracked, compared to Astana’s 24, yet Tirana scored zero goals in that same period while Astana scored two. That conversion gap tells a significant story about where the real danger lies in this tie.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27 First Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Astana Arena, Astana |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:00 CEST |
FC Astana vs Dinamo Tirana Prediction
Astana enter this second leg with a 1-0 lead, playing at home, and carrying a 100% win rate over the last 30 days. That combination makes them the clear favorite to progress. Their 5-3-2 formation gives them defensive solidity at the back while still allowing two forwards to press and threaten on the break. Dinamo Tirana need to score to stay alive in the tie, which means they will have to open up, and that suits Astana perfectly.
Tirana’s 4-4-2 shape is compact but relies on transitions to generate chances. The problem is their finishing has been poor in recent matches, as the data confirms. Astana will likely sit deep early and look to punish Tirana on the counter, a strategy that fits their personnel well given Ramazan Karimov’s direct running up front.
We predict Astana to win this match and advance comfortably. The most valuable bet here is an Astana win with under 2.5 total goals, reflecting the defensive nature of a second-leg tie where the home side holds the advantage and has no reason to overcommit.
Astana’s disciplined defensive setup in the 5-3-2 means they concede very few clear-cut opportunities. Tirana’s corner count of just four across the tracked matches suggests they struggle to create sustained pressure, which further reduces the risk of Astana being undone from set pieces. Astana themselves generated eight corners in comparison, showing they can apply pressure in the right moments without abandoning their shape.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | FC Astana to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
FC Astana have been in excellent form. Their last three results include a 3-2 domestic win over Aktobe and the first-leg 1-0 victory over Dinamo Tirana in this very competition, with a 1-0 win over Zhenis sandwiched in between. Their form across a longer stretch is strong, with the team winning the majority of their recent outings and only suffering one loss in their last five competitive matches, a 1-2 reverse against Tobol. That defeat looks like an outlier given how consistently they have performed since. Coach Grigoriy Babayan has his side organized and motivated, and playing at home in front of their own supporters at the Astana Arena gives them an additional edge.
Dinamo Tirana come into this match under real pressure after losing the first leg 0-1. Their recent results are a mixed picture. They beat Struga 3-2 and Sileks 2-1 in Albanian competition, but suffered a heavy 0-2 defeat to Egnatia, which exposed their defensive frailties against organized opposition. Coach Ilir Daja’s side won two of their last three matches before this tie, but their only win in the last 30 days came domestically. Scoring an away goal at the Astana Arena, against a side that has conceded very little recently, will be a tall order. Their winrate of 38% across 29 matches this year underlines how inconsistent they have been over a full season.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have only met in this qualifying round, with Astana taking the first leg 1-0. The bookmakers had Tirana as slight favorites to take something from that first game, but Astana outperformed expectations.
| Statistic | FC Astana | Dinamo Tirana |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 24 | 26 |
| Corner kicks | 8 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated FC Astana vs Dinamo Tirana stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: FC Astana the favourite
- Moneyline FC Astana 1.44 | Dinamo Tirana 7.14
- Draw 4.20
The odds at around 1.44 for Astana reflect their status as a team that is better organized, playing at home, and already ahead in the tie. That price is short but fair given the context. Tirana at 7.14 is a long shot that only becomes interesting if you believe they can score twice without reply, which their recent attacking output makes hard to justify. The draw at 4.20 is a price that could tempt some, but Astana have little reason to sit on a draw given they can afford to chase a bigger win margin. We see value in backing Astana directly.
Possible Starting Lineups
FC Astana possible starting eleven
- GK: Josip Čondrić
- DF: Abzal Beisebekov, Branimir Kalaica, Karlo Bartolec, Kipras Kazukolovas, Yan Vorogovskiy
- MF: Marin Tomasov, Ivan Bašić, Dinmukhamed Karaman
- FW: Ramazan Karimov, Stanislav Basmanov
Astana are expected to line up in their familiar 5-3-2 shape. Josip Čondrić takes his place in goal after featuring across the last two matches. The back five of Beisebekov, Kalaica, Bartolec, Kazukolovas, and Vorogovskiy has been consistent and provides a solid defensive base. Marin Tomasov is the player to watch in midfield, bringing creativity and two assists in recent games. Ramazan Karimov leads the attack and is the team’s primary goal threat, having scored twice in the last two outings. This is a well-drilled unit that knows its job.
Dinamo Tirana possible starting eleven
- GK: Aldo Teqja
- DF: Naser Aliji, Lorenco Vila, Bruno Dita, Klevi Qefalija
- MF: Eridon Qardaku, Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji, Klevi Qefalija
- FW: Hekuran Berisha, Lorenco Vila, Florenc Ferruku
Tirana are likely to set up in their 4-4-2 system under Ilir Daja. Aldo Teqja starts in goal after playing the full 90 minutes in the first leg. Naser Aliji and Bruno Dita provide structure defensively, while Klevi Qefalija and Eridon Qardaku are the engine room in midfield, both logging heavy minutes across the campaign. Hekuran Berisha leads the forward line and will need to be at his best to find a way through Astana’s well-organized back five. Tirana will need to be more clinical than they have been recently if they are to turn this tie around.
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Dinamo Tirana. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
The numbers point clearly in one direction. FC Astana are at home, hold a first-leg lead, have won every match in the last 30 days, and have outscored Dinamo Tirana two goals to zero across the tracked head-to-head data. Tirana’s shot count is high but their conversion is non-existent in recent matches, and Astana’s 5-3-2 is built to absorb pressure and hit on the counter.
We predict FC Astana to win this second leg 1-0 or 2-0 and progress to the next round. The best single bet is Astana to win to nil, backed by their defensive record and Tirana’s inability to score against quality organized defenses. To be honest, the only real variable is whether Astana push for a second or third goal once they establish the lead, but even a narrow win gets the job done for Babayan’s side. Back Astana, back the under, and expect a controlled performance from the home side.
