Sofia Quijada
The storied Estadio Coliseo del Bajo Belgrano in Buenos Aires sets the stage for an intriguing Round 2 Copa Argentina clash. On 28 May 2025, at 23:00 CEST, Excursionistas, guided by head coach Jeff Strasser, welcome a formidable Argentinos Juniors side managed by Nicolás Diez. While the tournament’s early phase is known for upsets, both teams arrive unbeaten in their last four matches, creating a compelling narrative that pits underdog resilience against established pedigree.
Excursionistas’ disciplined 4-4-2 formation has enabled them to grind out results—most notably, narrow victories against Comunicaciones and Deportivo Armenio. By contrast, Argentinos Juniors’ dynamic 4-3-3 has produced attacking verve, with Tomas Molina and Jose Herrera particularly influential. Molina, in stellar form with 4 goals across his last 3 appearances, and Herrera, consistently troubling defences, are the primary players to watch—each capable of shifting the match’s momentum with a moment of invention.
The “hot stat”? Argentinos Juniors have generated a remarkable 40 shots in their last five matches, underlining their consistent attacking intent—an astronomical figure compared to Excursionistas’ 11.
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Excursionistas vs Argentinos Juniors predictions
Me best bet: Argentinos Juniors to win.
Argentinos Juniors enter as clear favourites, and for sound reasons. Their attack, punctuated by Tomas Molina’s sharp finishing and Alan Lescano’s creative distribution, has proven too potent for even well-organised sides. Conversely, Excursionistas, while defensively resolute, have struggled to generate meaningful shots—three goals from 11 attempts in five matches is unsustainable against the relentless pressure Argentinos Juniors apply.
Tactically, expect Excursionistas to cede possession and seek opportunities on the break, but with Argentinos Juniors’ high interceptions (25 in last five) and impressive ball retention (over 1,500 passes at 84 percent accuracy), it will be difficult for the hosts to build sustained attacks. Discipline is another factor: Excursionistas average nearly two yellow cards per match, hinting at physical challenges to Argentinos’ fluency, but also the risk of disjointed defending late on.
Team styles in focus:
Excursionistas’ pattern is risk-averse: compact defensive lines, limited offensive output, and a moderate tendency toward physical play (9 yellows in five matches). Argentinos Juniors, meanwhile, prefer high-tempo transitions, relentless pressing, and wide play—resulting in more corners (13 to 9) and fewer bookings. This dichotomy suggests Argentinos can pull Excursionistas out of shape, exploit set piece situations, and potentially draw fouls in dangerous areas.
- ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
- 💥Both Teams To Score: No
- 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5
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Excursionistas vs Argentinos Juniors Most recent H2Hs
| Statistic | Excursionistas | Argentinos Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 11 | 40 |
| Corner kicks | 9 | 13 |
| Total fouls | 9 | 38 |
Historically, the gap in quality and tactical sophistication between these teams is most apparent in their chance creation and composure in transition. While their most recent meetings have not been frequent, the clear disparity in shooting volume, chance conversion, and passing assurance all tilt in favour of Argentinos Juniors. Excursionistas’ compact defending may frustrate for stretches, yet their inability to sustain pressure or generate quick recoveries will continually invite Argentinos advances.
🚨Read our full Excursionistas vs Argentinos Juniors stats for more analysis.
Key Stats
- Argentinos Juniors averaged 2.67 goals per match over their last three games.
- Tomas Molina has scored 4 goals in his last 3 appearances (all competitions).
- Excursionistas have conceded just once in their last four matches at home, demonstrating defensive discipline.
- Argentinos Juniors registered 40 shots in the last five games—nearly quadruple their opponent’s output.
- The average possession for Argentinos Juniors exceeds 60 percent during this cup campaign.
Excursionistas vs Argentinos Juniors score prediction: 0-2
Argentinos Juniors’ offensive firepower, led by the red-hot Tomas Molina and ably supported by Jose Herrera and Alan Lescano, should overcome Excursionistas’ deep block. Expect Molina to find the net, exploiting Excursionistas’ stretches of defensive disorganisation, while the visitors’ robust midfield—engineered by Lescano and Fattori—controls the tempo, denying Excursionistas clear looks at goal. A clean sheet is plausible given Argentinos’ pressing prowess and Excursionistas’ limited attacking statistics.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Argentinos Juniors the favourite
- Moneyline Excursionistas 6.00 | Argentinos Juniors 1.57
- Draw 3.65
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.96 | Under 2.5 1.80
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.75
The markets reflect Argentinos Juniors’ attacking control and stronger squad quality—odds of just over 1.55 for the away win align with their 60 percent win rate in 2025. Excursionistas’ status as heavy outsiders (6.00 or above) is merited given their lower volume of shots and high defensive workload. The odds for Over 2.5 sit close to evens, echoing the possibility that Argentinos’ attack will decide the match and that Excursionistas are unlikely to contribute much on the scoresheet.
Excursionistas vs Argentinos Juniors Over/Under Analysis
- Argentinos Juniors have seen Over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 outings.
- Excursionistas’ last five games featured Under 2.5 goals, with three clean sheets.
- Argentinos Juniors average close to 8 shots on target per game—potential for early goals.
- No red cards shown in either side’s last five games, indicating controlled aggression.
Excursionistas Preview
Excursionistas enter Round 2 on the back of impressive defensive resilience—winning three of their last four, all by a single goal margin. In their most recent contest, a 1-0 victory over Comunicaciones, the side showcased organisation and set-piece discipline. While their 4-4-2 restricts opposition space, it also evidences attacking limitations: recent outings have produced only three goals (from 11 total shots). The side typically lacks flair in the final third but remains dogged—qualities which have served them well against clubs of similar stature.
Fouls and bookings remain a concern, and the lack of advanced midfield play could see them overly reliant on long balls and opportunistic breaks against the pressing machine of Argentinos Juniors.
Argentinos Juniors Preview
Argentinos Juniors’ preparatory path has been emphatic. Their last three outings—most notably the 4-0 dismantling of Estudiantes LP—underscore the team’s tactical fluidity in attack and structured midfield transitions. Tomas Molina remains the headline threat, ably flanked by Jose Herrera and midfield orchestrators like Alan Lescano and Nicolas Oroz. The team’s 4-3-3 enables width and high pressing, creating overlaps that typically overwhelm more conservative opposition. Defensive reliability is also apparent: just 6 yellow cards and no red cards across five matches reflect balance and discipline.
Expect Argentinos Juniors to command possession from the outset, engineering opportunities through patient build-up and devastating vertical runs from wingers and fullbacks alike.
The Verdict
On behalf of the TipsGG expert panel, Argentinos Juniors are tipped to take a relatively comfortable victory away from this fixture. Their tactical organisation, squad depth, and the clinical form of forward Tomas Molina are difficult for any Argentine lower-league team to resist. While Excursionistas’ discipline at the back cannot be discounted, the gulf in creativity and attacking metrics is simply too great. The AI prediction engine affords Argentinos Juniors a 62 percent probability of victory, citing consistent shot volume, return to form, and match control as key indicators.
How to watch Excursionistas vs Argentinos Juniors
- When? 28.05.2025 – Kick-off at 23:00 CEST
- Where? Estadio Coliseo del Bajo Belgrano, Buenos Aires
- How to watch: National TV networks and streaming platforms covering Copa Argentina, check local listings for details.
- Favorite: Argentinos Juniors
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Argentinos Juniors. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
