Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle Prediction: 20.12.2025 Eredivisie 2025/26

On Saturday, 20 December, Rotterdam’s Van Donge & De Roo Stadion hosts a clash with particular intrigue as Excelsior take on PEC Zwolle in a contest that could prove pivotal for both sides’ mid-table ambitions. Both teams are seeking much-needed points to climb away from the lower reaches of the Eredivisie standings, but perhaps more interestingly, each features a standout young talent who’s been making waves during this rollercoaster campaign.

Watch for Excelsior’s explosively athletic midfielder Noah Naujoks—whose three goals in his last three appearances have provided crucial spark in attack—and PEC Zwolle’s prolific Koen Kostons, a forward who has notched three goals in his past five outings, establishing himself as a genuine threat on the counter. Each man will likely be pivotal in determining the match’s outcome.

For the “hot stat”, PEC Zwolle have racked up an impressive 52 interceptions across their last five matches, demonstrating a robust defensive shape and a knack for disrupting opposition rhythm.

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Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle prediction

Looking at the data, the best value appears to sit with a Draw No Bet for Excelsior. While their home form is patchy, their recent win over Ajax showed notable resilience and tactical discipline. PEC Zwolle, despite a slightly higher league position, have been extremely vulnerable away from home, illustrated by a heavy 1-6 reverse against Feyenoord just three games ago. Excelsior also seem slightly stronger in creative phases recently, led by Naujoks’s stunning run of form, and with the fans behind them, they have a slight edge on this occasion.

Both sides average a considerable amount of fouls (Excelsior 45, PEC Zwolle 60 over last 5 matches), forecasted to see a physically intense battle, with Zwolle just shading it in yellow cards. PEC Zwolle’s pass accuracy is superior (75% vs 77% over five matches) and they attempt more through balls, but Excelsior’s structure often stifles midfield play, leading to a scrappy central struggle and, crucially, plenty of set-piece opportunities. Expect intermittent possession spells and direct transitions from both.

Team Analysis

Excelsior enter this tie off the back of a rather uneven run: a disappointing 0-2 home loss to Groningen was preceded by an encouraging 1-0 win over NAC Breda and, impressively, a 2-1 scalp of Ajax. Their results betray a tendency to either punch above their weight (e.g., against Ajax) or wilt under pressure (see that loss to Groningen). Across the last five matches, Excelsior have scored just three goals, reflecting issues in the final third when Naujoks is stifled. However, their eight corners signal offensive intent, and, defensively, they remain aggressive if occasionally rash.

PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, come in after a 1-0 home victory over Sittard and a creditable 2-2 draw with Groningen, but sandwiched between those were dispiriting defeats, notably that lopsided 1-6 humbling by Feyenoord. Zwolle have managed seven goals in their last five fixtures—double Excelsior’s output—but have also shipped a worrying number of goals, underlining their defensive instability. Notably, they recorded 11 corners in the last five matches, suggesting their wide play is a real strength.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Excelsior the favourite

• Moneyline Excelsior 2.14 | PEC Zwolle 3.21
• Draw 3.65
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.80 | Under 2.5 2.05
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.70 | No 2.10

Bookmakers just about fancy Excelsior, with their home advantage and recently improved form nudging them ahead in odds. Zwolle’s volatility away from home sits behind these odds; meanwhile, the relatively tight price on a draw reflects both sides’ inconsistency. The over/under market leans toward goals, a nod to both defences’ fragility, while both teams to score appears highly plausible given attacking trends.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Excelsior possible starting eleven

Excelsior look set to line up in their trusted 4-2-3-1, emphasising compactness in midfield and quick breaks out wide. Noah Naujoks is the man to watch in the attacking midfield slot—his recent goal tally marks him as Excelsior’s talisman and the likely creator in chief against Zwolle’s somewhat porous back line. Vigilant defensive contributions will be required from Bronkhorst and Widell against Zwolle’s quick counters.

PEC Zwolle possible starting eleven

PEC Zwolle also prefer a flexible 4-2-3-1, harnessing wide play and the linkup between Oosting and Kostons up front. Kostons’s knack for finding space in the box will be crucial, while much depends on Oosting’s ability to drive forward and unlock Excelsior’s defence. Expect Floranus and MacNulty to overlap and provide width, amplifying Zwolle’s corner count.

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My take on the Match

In a season where both sides have been searching for consistency, this match represents more than just three points: it is a test of mettle for two squads with everything to prove. We anticipate an open encounter—both defences having shown soft underbellies—with top talents Naujoks and Kostons primed for centre stage. Excelsior, with the home crowd and a steadier defensive shape, edge this one for us, but back them with the safety net of Draw No Bet. Expect a 2-1 win for Excelsior: goals, drama, and more than a hint of Eredivisie unpredictability.

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