Excelsior vs Nijmegen Prediction: 04.04.2026 Eredivisie

The Eredivisie regular season brings Excelsior and Nijmegen face-to-face at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. This clash pits relegation battle against top-three ambition. Excelsior have had a torrid run, stuck in a winless stretch that has left them hovering near the drop zone. Nijmegen, on the other hand, are enjoying a stellar season, currently sitting third with genuine aspirations for European qualification. The previous head-to-head encounter ended with Nijmegen emphatically winning 5-0, setting the backdrop for an intriguing rematch.

Key players to watch include Excelsior’s Derensili Sanches Fernandes, who, despite the team’s struggles, has managed to chip in with goals and offensive impetus. For Nijmegen, Bryan Linssen is in form, netting twice in the last three appearances and presenting a clear attacking threat.

Notably, Nijmegen have averaged 1.6 goals per match in their last five games, underscoring their offensive consistency and marking them as a side with clear firepower coming into this fixture.

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Excelsior vs Nijmegen prediction

The odds overwhelmingly favour Nijmegen, who are in superior form and boast potent attackers. Excelsior’s recent form—with only one point from their last five matches and a single win all year—hints at persistent defensive frailties and lack of cutting edge. Nijmegen’s creative midfielders and sharp forward line are likely to benefit from Excelsior’s shaky backline, especially given Nijmegen’s higher possession, cleaner passing (pass accuracy 74% vs Excelsior’s 74-75%), and aggression in the final third.

Still, Excelsior do not shy away from physical contests, registering a slightly above-average foul count, but their modest offensive returns and recent lack of discipline (31 fouls, 3 yellow cards in last five) suggest any lead could be quickly surrendered. Expect Nijmegen to control the ball (averaging 52%+ possession in recent games), press high, and win the corner battle (25 corners in five compared to Excelsior’s 12). This could lead to a match with multiple scoring chances for the visitors.

Team Analysis

Excelsior come into this fixture after a 1-1 draw with Heracles. While gaining a point may seem positive, Heracles are in poor form themselves, and Excelsior failed to make their home advantage count. Their only goal came from Derensili Sanches Fernandes, underlining attacking struggles (just 3 goals in last 5 matches). Defensively, set-piece vulnerabilities persist, as seen in conceding late in matches and losing focus during transitions. Their 12 corners in last five indicate issue creating sustained pressure.

Nijmegen impressed with a 2-2 draw against Heerenveen. Despite relinquishing a lead, Nijmegen’s attacking impetus—epitomised by Tjaronn Chery and Bryan Linssen—saw them recover from setbacks. They’ve scored 8 in their last 5, conceded just 5, and have maintained structure even after setbacks, a testament to Dick Schreuder’s tactical discipline. With 25 corners in five games, Nijmegen demonstrate their threat from wide areas. Their only recent blemish was a narrow home loss to Sittard, but three wins in their last six and a memorable 3-2 win over PSV underline their resilience.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Excelsior vs Nijmegen stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Nijmegen the favourite

• Moneyline Excelsior 3.50 | Nijmegen 1.94
• Draw 4.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.68 | Under 2.5 2.25
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.81 | No 1.95

Bookmakers’ odds solidly reflect Nijmegen’s status as favourites, and for good reason. Excelsior’s struggles and Nijmegen’s attacking consistency suggest a clear advantage for the visitors. The low price for “Over 2.5” indicates expectations of a lively contest, while “BTTS – No” reflects the defensive strengths Nijmegen have shown in open play. Backing Nijmegen on a handicap or in multi-goal markets is well-supported by underlying stats and current win probabilities.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Excelsior possible starting eleven

Excelsior stick with their favoured 4-2-3-1, balancing caution at the back with Fernandes’s dynamism up top. Van Gassel offers solidity in goal, while Bronkhorst and Widell anchor the defence. Expect Naujoks to link midfield and attack, with Wlodarczyk operating as a focal point. Fernandes remains the team’s most potent attacking option and is key if Excelsior hope to score.

Nijmegen possible starting eleven

Nijmegen look settled in a 4-1-4-1 setup, maximizing midfield dominance. Cillessen provides experience between the posts, with Nuytinck and Sandler marshalling the backline. In midfield, Chery’s creativity and Sano’s vision will facilitate transitions and chance creation. Up front, Linssen is in excellent form, making runs in behind to threaten Excelsior’s defensive line. The wide threat from Ouaissa and support from Nejašmić are expected to trouble Excelsior’s flanks.

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My take on the Match

This fixture brings together two sides at opposite ends of the form table. Excelsior will be desperate to break their winless streak, but with confidence seemingly low and a porous defence, they are likely to struggle against the structured and high-scoring Nijmegen. Expect Nijmegen to capitalise on Excelsior’s errors, dominate possession, and create scoring chances, especially down the flanks. My main pick is for Nijmegen to cover a -1.0 Asian handicap, with over 2.5 goals as a strong secondary option.

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