Excelsior vs Groningen Prediction: 05.12.2025 Eredivisie 2025/26

As the Eredivisie regular season unfolds, Excelsior and Groningen are set to face off at Rotterdam’s Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Both sides seek vital points at this stage of the campaign with Excelsior aiming to climb out of the lower echelons of the table, while Groningen sits mid-pack but hungry to break a recent winless spell. Notably, Excelsior’s home resilience, contrasted with Groningen’s higher average shot count, sets up an intriguing tactical battle for this crucial fixture.

Key players to watch out for in this clash include Excelsior’s creative midfielder Noah Naujoks, who has recently found the net with frequency, and Groningen’s dynamic forward Thom Van Bergen, already with two goals in his last three outings. Their performances could heavily influence the direction of this match.

The “hot stat” for this encounter comes from Groningen: Despite failing to win in their last four matches, the team has registered an impressive 66 total shots in that period – nearly three times more than Excelsior’s 26. Efficiency in front of goal will be decisive.

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Excelsior vs Groningen prediction

Based on current form, squad depth, and underlying stats, Groningen edges into this tie as the slight favorite. While Excelsior have enjoyed home comforts lately, Groningen’s ability to generate chances by volume remains a significant factor. The visiting side’s pressing and relatively higher pass accuracy (81 percent from last five) should help dictate tempo against Excelsior, who has struggled defensively (24 goals conceded in 14 matches).

Styles of play reveal distinct contrasts: Excelsior currently carries the second-highest fouls tally per game amongst the sides in the lower half, alongside 6 yellow cards in the last five matches—suggesting an aggressive, sometimes desperate, approach, especially when out of possession. Groningen, on the other hand, are less combative (only 2 yellows in last five) but win more corners (21 vs 9), indicating more attacking possession and play in the final third.

Given recent finishing issues for Groningen, a low-scoring affair seems likely unless they find their clinical edge. Thus, the best value lies in backing “Draw No Bet: Groningen”—offering protection against an Excelsior home upset—coupled with under 2.5 goals, as both teams have struggled for goals of late (Excelsior 4, Groningen 2 in last five).

Team Analysis

Excelsior come into this tie off a narrow 1-0 victory over NAC Breda, which snapped a poor run that saw them lose three of their last four. While they netted just four goals in their previous five, the return of midfield spark Noah Naujoks (4 goals in 3 recent games) is a major boost. However, their creative output remains inconsistent, illustrated by just 26 shots taken over the last five matches, and a concerning 24 goals conceded through the campaign thus far.

Groningen’s recent form has dipped, reflected by three losses and a draw in their last four. Most recently, a 0-2 home defeat against Ajax highlighted their struggles in converting chances—despite firing off 66 shots in their previous five matches, they’ve only managed two goals. Groningen’s passing game continues to impress (1,157 completed passes, 81 percent accuracy), but their current conversion rate raises questions around finishing quality. Nonetheless, their ability to control the ball and force set-pieces (21 corners in last five) could see them dominate phases of this match.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Excelsior vs Groningen stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Groningen the favourite

• Moneyline Excelsior 3.30 | Groningen 2.13
• Draw 3.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.02 | Under 2.5 1.82
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.88 | No 1.84

Groningen’s superior squad depth and their statistical dominance, particularly in attacking metrics such as shots and corners, justifies their position as favorites among bookmakers at an average price below 2.15. However, Excelsior’s resilience at home cannot be overlooked, while recent trends support a low-scoring, tightly contested affair. The odds for under 2.5 goals reflect the attacking difficulties on both sides in the past month.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Excelsior possible starting eleven

Expect Excelsior to stick with their 4-2-3-1 formation, prioritizing compactness and hoping to launch quick transitions via Naujoks’s creativity. Stijn van Gassel should offer reliability in goal, while Gyan de Regt adds directness up front. Watch out for Naujoks—his recent scoring record is impressive and may force Groningen’s midfield to play deeper. Defensive discipline will be key to avoid costly fouls and cards.

Groningen possible starting eleven

Groningen should mirror Excelsior’s 4-2-3-1 setup, utilizing the technical prowess of Blokzijl and Peersman in buildup play. Thom Van Bergen’s recent goal return makes him the striker to monitor, with El Idrissi offering pace and work rate on the flanks. Expect Groningen to aim for midfield domination via Resink and De Jonge, funneling the ball to their wide men to win corners and create shooting chances.

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My take on the Match

My main pick for this match is the Groningen Draw No Bet at favorable odds. Groningen’s underlying metrics—particularly their capacity to create shots and win set-pieces—should eventually tilt a tight game in their favor, especially if Van Bergen continues his strong form. However, the visitors’ recent inefficiency in front of goal signals risk, making a conservative approach wise. Expect a tactical battle with low margins, with defensive discipline and set-piece execution making the difference.

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