Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction: 14.02.2026 Eredivisie Preview

As the Eredivisie regular season reaches its business end, Excelsior welcomes AZ Alkmaar to the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam. With both sides striving for consistency, this clash offers more than meets the eye: AZ Alkmaar have European hopes to keep alive, while Excelsior look to push further up the table and distance themselves from the lurking pack below. The weight of each point is ever heavier as we approach the season’s sharp end, and recent encounters between these teams have proven unpredictable—recall their last league draw, where both sides shared the spoils after a fiercely contested ninety minutes. This match promises tactical intrigue, with both managers favoring disciplined 4-2-3-1 formations and several players hitting a rich vein of form at just the right time.

Among those to watch, Excelsior’s Irakli Yegoian and AZ Alkmaar’s Troy Parrott have proven focal points for their respective attacks. Yegoian, with his workmanlike energy in midfield, has both the vision and goal threat to trouble AZ’s lines, while Parrott—finding the net four times in his last six outings—has settled superbly as Alkmaar’s creative spearhead. Both will be critical to their side’s fortunes on Friday night.

This fixture’s “hot stat” is the remarkable offensive consistency: Excelsior have netted eight goals across their last five matches—a clear uptick in attacking production—while AZ Alkmaar have outstripped them for total shots, racking up a league-leading 81 attempts over the same stretch.

🏅Best bets for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar at WinSpirit with a Welcome bonus 100% up to 100$ and 25% Freebet💰

Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

The most sensible and valuable prediction for this match leans towards AZ Alkmaar avoiding defeat—Asian Handicap -0.25 in their favour looks solid value given recent form and superior shot creation. Excelsior, for all their spirit and improvement up front, remain vulnerable defensively—conceding an average of just under two goals per game and sitting on a meagre goal difference of -13 in the league. In contrast, AZ’s pragmatic approach and clinical edge from Parrott make them a formidable opponent here, even away from home.

Both teams average over ten shots per match, though Alkmaar have been more clinical with higher total attempts and sharper pass accuracy (71% vs Excelsior’s 66%). It’s worth noting, however, that both teams have shown a competitive, sometimes physical edge involving frequent fouls (AZ’s 11 yellow cards to Excelsior’s 9 in the past five), which could see a few stoppages and potentially influence the rhythm. Expect possession to be relatively balanced but with Alkmaar attempting to capitalise on Excelsior’s relative defensive inexperience.

Team Analysis

Excelsior recent games: The Rotterdam club come into this match with confidence, following a 2-0 triumph over NAC Breda—displaying improved defensive cohesion and a more refined final third approach through Yegoian and the lively Miliano Jonathans. Their draw against Ajax (2-2) was equally spirited; despite being the underdogs, Excelsior matched one of the league’s giants punch for punch. Scoring hasn’t been an issue lately, though their leaky backline continues to be a headache. Before that, holding Twente (0-0) and a goal-packed draw versus Telstar (2-2) underline their newfound attacking intent and resilience.

AZ Alkmaar recent games: Alkmaar have shown flashes of real quality but have not always converted potential into points, as seen in their 1-1 draws with both Ajax and Twente. Their only recent defeat came against a high-flying Nijmegen (1-3). Crucially, their ability to maintain a goal threat—courtesy of Parrott’s finishing and creative outlets like Isak Jensen—keeps them dangerous throughout. They also proved their mettle by grinding out a 1-0 against Telstar and earning a hard-fought draw against these same Excelsior opponents just a few weeks ago (1-1).

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: AZ Alkmaar the favourite

• Moneyline Excelsior 4.30 | AZ Alkmaar 1.73
• Draw 3.85
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 2.05
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.86 | No 1.90

AZ Alkmaar open as clear favourites with most major bookmakers, and rightly so. Their away pedigree, attacking firepower and overall league position (7th, just four points behind Sparta in fifth) make their win probability substantial. Excelsior’s competitive streak—shown in recent draws against Ajax and Twente—can’t be underestimated, but their inconsistency at the back dents their outright appeal. Odds on both teams to score appeal given Excelsior’s attacking momentum and both sides’ high shot counts, while Over 2.5 goals is well-priced considering the attacking metrics.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

Possible Starting Lineups

Excelsior possible starting eleven

• GK: Stijn van Gassel
• DF: Arthur Zagre, Casper Widell, Ilias Bronkhorst, Rick Meissen
• MF: Noah Naujoks, Lennard Hartjes, Irakli Yegoian, Adam Carlen
• FW: Miliano Jonathans, Derensili Sanches Fernandes

For Excelsior, van Gassel’s assured hands between the sticks are complemented by a settled back four, with Widell and Meissen tasked with containing Parrott’s forays. Yegoian is expected to anchor midfield, his dynamic box-to-box play driving transitions. Up front, Jonathans’ recent purple patch means he’s one to watch—his movement could cause AZ endless problems. I’d expect a familiar 4-2-3-1, focused on quick ball progression to Jonathans and Fernandes.

AZ Alkmaar possible starting eleven

• GK: Hobie Verhulst
• DF: Maxim Dekker, Alexandre Penetra, Mees de Wit, Wouter Goes
• MF: Peer Koopmeiners, kasper boogaard, Matěj Šín
• FW: Troy Parrott, Isak Jensen, Ibrahim Sadiq

AZ would likely stick with a similar 4-2-3-1, with Verhulst’s experience in goal and Penetra-Goes as a physical centre-half pairing. De Wit and Dekker offer width and composure, while in midfield, Koopmeiners and boogaard provide a balance of defensive grit and creative spark. Parrott remains key to unlocking Excelsior’s defence, ably supported by Sadiq’s direct threat and Jensen’s inventiveness. Watch for Parrott’s darting runs and boogaard’s ability to strike from range.

Best football betting sites and Bonuses

My take on the Match

AZ Alkmaar’s extra firepower, tactical discipline and squad cohesion make them deserved favourites—though Excelsior’s resurgence, especially in attack, shouldn’t be underestimated. We predict a hard-fought 2-1 for AZ Alkmaar, with both teams likely finding the net. Alkmaar’s midfield control coupled with Parrott’s decisive form could tip the balance, but Excelsior will give them a scare, riding their newfound confidence at home. Victory here would keep AZ well in the hunt for European spots as the campaign enters its final third—and for Excelsior, even in defeat, another display of attacking courage will keep their survival prospects alive and kicking!

More useful links for football fans

• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG