Estudiantes LP vs Newells Old Boys Prediction: 01 September 2026 Argentine Primera Division

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Estudiantes LP host Newells Old Boys at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi in a Clausura fixture that carries serious urgency for the home side. Sitting 26th in the standings with just 6 points from 6 games, Alexander Medina’s men are in genuine danger at the bottom, and this is exactly the kind of home match they cannot afford to drop. Newells arrive in a far healthier position at 14th with 10 points, but their away form has been inconsistent. Guido Carrillo has been the standout attacker for Estudiantes in recent weeks, and Facundo Guch’s creative output from midfield makes him the key man to watch for Frank Kudelka’s side.

A hot stat worth noting: Estudiantes have scored 11 goals across their last 5 matches, converting at an impressive rate relative to their league position, suggesting their attacking output is dramatically outpacing their points tally.

Estudiantes LP vs Newells Old Boys Prediction

Estudiantes are in a must-win situation at home and have shown genuine attacking quality in their last 5 matches. They beat Barracas Central 3-1 and demolished Gimnasia LP 4-0 in recent home outings, showing they can put teams away on their own ground. Newells have won their last two, but both of those came against Banfield and Deportivo Riestra, sides ranked well below Estudiantes in the global club rankings. The gap in quality between these two squads is real, and the bookmakers’ 56% probability for a home win reflects that accurately.

Estudiantes play a high-volume attacking game, averaging 15 shots per match across the last 5, while Newells manage just over 8. Medina’s side also commits more fouls (62 vs 46), pressing aggressively and winning the ball in dangerous areas. Newells’ low yellow card count (4 vs 14) suggests they sit deeper and absorb pressure rather than contest every duel, which could leave space for Estudiantes to exploit. The home side’s pass accuracy and volume also dwarfs Newells’, pointing to territorial dominance throughout the match.

Team Analysis

Estudiantes have been one of the more paradoxical sides in the Clausura: their underlying numbers are solid but the points simply have not followed. In their last 5 matches, they put 4 past Gimnasia LP, 3 past Barracas Central, and 3 past Universidad Católica, yet losses to Sarmiento Junin (0-2) and an earlier slip have kept them anchored near the foot of the table. Their most recent outing, a 3-1 home win over Barracas Central, was exactly the kind of performance they need to replicate. Carrillo grabbed 3 goals across the 5-match run, Joaquín Tobio Burgos added 2 goals and 2 assists, and Joaquín Correa contributed a goal and an assist, giving Medina genuine firepower across the front line. Fernando Muslera’s 12 saves over the period underline that the defense does get tested, but the attacking depth is hard to ignore.

Newells arrive in decent short-term form, winning 3 of their last 5 and losing just once in that run. Their most recent result was a 2-1 win over Banfield, with Walter Mazzantti and Matías Cóccaro providing the goals. Cóccaro has been efficient with 3 goals in just 2 appearances, while Facundo Guch’s 1 goal and 3 assists from midfield make him the creative engine of this side. The concern for Kudelka is their output away from home: Newells scored only 7 goals in 5 matches and managed 42 total shots compared to Estudiantes’ 75, meaning they will likely be second-best in terms of possession and territory in La Plata. The red card accumulated by Jeronimo Russo is also a squad depth concern.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

The head-to-head record strongly favors Estudiantes. They won the most recent encounter 2-0 in the Apertura phase of this same season, and they thrashed Newells 4-1 in the 2024 Relegation match. The two 2025 meetings ended 1-1, but the dominant trend across recent history points clearly to Estudiantes as the stronger side in this fixture.

🚨Check out our dedicated Estudiantes LP vs Newells Old Boys stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Estudiantes LP the Favourite

• Moneyline Estudiantes LP 1.67 | Newells Old Boys 5.40
• Draw 3.45

The odds paint a clear picture: Estudiantes are heavy favorites at home, with Newells priced at 5.40 or higher across most books. Given the head-to-head dominance, Estudiantes’ attacking volume, and the desperation that comes with sitting 26th in the standings, backing the home win at around 1.67 offers real value. The draw at 3.45 is a reasonable fallback given that two of the last three meetings ended level, but Estudiantes’ urgent need for points makes a passive performance unlikely.

Possible Starting Lineups

Estudiantes LP Possible Starting Eleven

Medina looks set to deploy a 4-2-3-1 or a narrow 4-4-2 depending on how he wants to press Newells. Muslera has been reliable between the sticks with 12 saves across the last 5 matches. Piovi and Neves anchor the midfield with high pass volumes, while Alexis Castro’s 7 interceptions make him the pressing trigger. Carrillo leads the line as the focal point, and Tobio Burgos is the player most likely to pop up with a goal or assist from a secondary position. Gallego Rodriguez is a physical presence who can win the ball and hurt teams in transition.

Newells Old Boys Possible Starting Eleven

Kudelka has settled into a 4-2-3-1 shape, with Reinatti as the first-choice keeper after 14 saves in 4 appearances. Lautaro Gianetti has been the most consistent defensive figure with 360 minutes played. Guch is the standout name in midfield with 1 goal and 3 assists, and Mazzantti offers a goal threat from the forward line. Cóccaro’s 3 goals in 2 games make him a genuine impact option off the bench if Kudelka wants to change the game late on.

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The Verdict

We predict an Estudiantes LP home win, and the stats back this up on every front. They have more shots, more goals, better passing, and a head-to-head record that heavily favors them in this fixture. Their 4-0 and 3-1 recent home wins show they can be clinical, and the pressure of their league position will sharpen their focus. Newells have improved lately but face a step up in quality here. We back Estudiantes LP to win and both teams to score, with the match likely to produce at least 3 goals based on both sides’ attacking trends. To be honest, the value in the home win market at 1.67 is straightforward given the context, and Estudiantes scoring in both halves is perhaps the sharpest single-market play on this game.

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