Sofia Quijada
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Estudiantes LP welcome Gimnasia Mendoza to Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi with the home side sitting 23rd in the Clausura table, a position that looks completely out of sync with their status as heavy bookmaker favourites here. Gimnasia Mendoza arrive 11th, with more points, a better goal difference and a far steadier recent run. The gap between the odds and the league table is the real story of this fixture, and it shapes almost everything about how we read it.
Watch Guido Carrillo up front for Estudiantes LP, he is the only player in their squad with a goal and an assist combined across the last five games and still leads the attack despite the team’s slump. For Gimnasia Mendoza, I. Charparin has been their most direct threat, racking up nine shots in just three appearances and scoring the only goal of note among their forwards in that stretch.
Hot stat: Estudiantes LP have lost three matches in a row, conceding six goals in that run, while sitting 23rd with just 10 points from 10 games, yet their coefficient of 56% implied win probability makes them the clear favourite over a Gimnasia Mendoza side that sits six places and seven points above them in the standings.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Argentine Primera Division 2026, Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
Estudiantes LP vs Gimnasia Mendoza prediction
We lean away from backing Estudiantes LP outright here. The home side have lost three straight, sit near the bottom of the table and their recent form string shows far more losses than wins across the last 15 matches. Gimnasia Mendoza, by contrast, have only one defeat in their last five and sit comfortably above the relegation zone with a positive goal difference. Perhaps the market is simply pricing in the home venue and Estudiantes’ bigger name, but the numbers on the pitch tell a different story, and we think Gimnasia Mendoza Double Chance offers real value against a team in freefall.
Estudiantes LP commit far more fouls than their visitors, 70 against 25 in the last five matches, and pick up double the yellow cards, 15 to 7. That discipline gap, combined with Gimnasia’s tighter defensive shape, 1119 passes with 25 fouls shows a side that controls games through patience rather than aggression, suggests a scrappy, cagey contest rather than a free-flowing one. Estudiantes’ 69 shots to Gimnasia’s 49 across the sample hints at home pressure, but their conversion has been poor, only 5 goals from that volume, which supports a low-scoring outcome.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Gimnasia Mendoza Double Chance (Draw or Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Estudiantes LP’s last match ended 0-1 against Platense, their third straight defeat after also losing 1-3 to Rosario Central and 1-2 to Lanus. The only bright spots in this stretch were a 1-0 win over Corinthians Paulista and an earlier 2-1 win against the same Platense side they have just lost to. The pattern is clear, a team capable of grinding out narrow wins but currently unable to stop conceding, having let in six goals across the three losses. In our preview of Platense vs Estudiantes LP we called a tight Estudiantes win built on their passing edge and head-to-head record, and the 0-1 scoreline went against us, with Platense completing the sweep instead.
Gimnasia Mendoza’s last outing was a goalless draw away at Deportivo Riestra, a result that fits their pattern of tight, low-scoring games on the road. Before that they lost 0-2 to Defensa y Justicia, but also drew 2-2 with Boca Juniors and beat Independiente 3-0 and Gimnasia LP 3-2. That spread, one loss, one draw, two wins and another draw in five, shows a team that competes with anyone in the league regardless of reputation, which matters given they are travelling to face a struggling Estudiantes side.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have not met in a completed fixture recently, the only listed meeting shares this match’s date and refers to the upcoming game itself rather than a played result.
🚨Check out our dedicated Estudiantes LP vs Gimnasia Mendoza stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Estudiantes LP the favourite
- Moneyline Estudiantes LP 1.67 | Gimnasia Mendoza 5.54
- Draw 3.81
Bookmakers price Estudiantes LP as clear favourites around 1.67, implying roughly a 56% win chance, while Gimnasia Mendoza sit near 5.54, barely above 18%. To be honest, those numbers look generous toward the home side given their current league position and losing streak. We see far more value on the draw and on Gimnasia Mendoza’s price than on backing Estudiantes LP outright, the market appears to be pricing reputation rather than recent output.
Possible Starting Lineups
Estudiantes LP possible starting eleven
- GK: Fernando Muslera
- DF: Eric Meza, Santiago Núñez, Leandro Gonzalez Pirez, Eros Nazareno Mancuso
- MF: José Sosa, Lucas Piovi, Gabriel Neves, Alexis Castro, Edwuin Cetre
- FW: Guido Carrillo
Medina should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in all of the last five matches. Muslera anchors the back line with his experience, while Castro, scorer of two goals in four appearances, is the player most likely to unlock a stubborn Gimnasia defense from midfield. Carrillo remains the focal point up top despite the team’s broader struggles in front of goal.
Gimnasia Mendoza possible starting eleven
- GK: Cesar Rigamonti
- DF: Diego Mondino, Ezequiel Munoz, Germán Guiffrey, Matías Emiliano Recalde
- MF: Nahuel Barboza, Julián Ceballos, Esteban Fernández, Matías Vargas, I. Charparin
- FW: Luciano César Cingolani
Franco also favours the 4-2-3-1 shape, with Rigamonti’s ten saves across three games showing he has been kept busy and trusted in goal. Vargas, with ten shots in just three appearances, and Charparin on the flank give Gimnasia their sharpest attacking outlets, while the back four built around Munoz and Guiffrey has conceded relatively little for a side on the road.
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Estudiantes LP. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Gimnasia Mendoza avoid defeat here, backing their Double Chance given Estudiantes’ three-match losing run and a table gap that favours the visitors despite the odds. Both teams have scored sparingly in their recent matches, five and two goals respectively across five games each, which points firmly toward a low-scoring affair. Our call leans Under 2.5 goals with BTTS No, and for punters wanting a single outright line, the draw at close to 3.80 looks like the smartest price on the board given how these two teams have performed on the pitch this season.
