Sofia Quijada
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Estudiantes LP welcome Corinthians Paulista to Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi for the first leg of a Copa Libertadores quarterfinal that pits two clubs with shaky recent form against each other. Alexander Medina’s side have won three of their last eight games, Fernando Diniz’s Corinthians have managed only two victories in the same span. The interesting wrinkle here: both sides come into this tie having lost their most recent domestic outing, which puts extra weight on which coach reacts better under pressure in a two-legged knockout format.
Watch Guido Carrillo closely. The Estudiantes forward has scored three goals across his last five appearances from just 15 shots, a conversion rate that makes him the sharpest attacking weapon on the pitch. On the Corinthians side, Rodrigo Garro pulls the strings from midfield, he averages roughly two shots and a chance created per game and remains Diniz’s main creative outlet when Corinthians build from deep.
Hot stat: Corinthians have won just one of their last five matches, they conceded multiple goals in three of those five games, including back-to-back 1-2 defeats to Coritiba and Cruzeiro. That defensive fragility travels poorly into a hostile La Plata atmosphere.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Libertadores 2026, Quarterfinals |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, La Plata |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:30 CEST |
Estudiantes LP vs Corinthians Paulista prediction
We lean toward Estudiantes LP on home advantage, backed by a double chance angle rather than a straight moneyline punt. The bookmakers give the hosts a 41% implied win probability against 26% for Corinthians, and that gap widens once you factor in the away side’s poor away form this season. Estudiantes have scored 6 goals across their last five matches compared to just 4 for Corinthians, and Carrillo’s finishing gives Medina’s men a clear edge in the final third.
Style-wise, Estudiantes committed 62 fouls and picked up 16 yellow cards in their last five outings, a slightly higher tally than Corinthians (58 fouls, 8 yellows), suggesting the hosts play with more physical intensity and could see a card or two shown early to set the tone. Corinthians hold a small edge in possession quality, their pass accuracy sits near 87% against Estudiantes’ 82%, and they generate far more corners (33 versus 17 in the same sample), which points toward a match where Corinthians control long spells of possession without translating it into clear chances, a profile we predict repeats itself here.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Guido Carrillo to score or assist |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Estudiantes LP arrive off a 0-1 home defeat to Velez Sarsfield, a result that snapped a run of mixed form and left Medina searching for defensive answers. Before that setback they drew 0-0 with Newells Old Boys and thrashed Barracas Central 3-1, showing the squad can score freely when Carrillo and Correa combine in the final third. The loss to Velez, though, exposed a Estudiantes defense that struggled to deal with pace in behind, a concern given Corinthians’ wide forwards.
Corinthians Paulista head into this tie on the back of a 1-2 loss to Chapecoense, their second straight defeat after also falling 0-1 to Santos. Diniz’s side did beat Rosario Central 1-0 three games back, but the overall pattern shows a team leaking goals defensively, four losses in their last seven matches overall. Garro and Kaio César still generate chances, the finishing and defensive organization simply have not matched the creative output recently.
| Statistic | Estudiantes LP | Corinthians Paulista |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 6 | 4 |
| Total shots | 66 | 78 |
| Free kicks | 71 | 68 |
| Corner kicks | 17 | 33 |
| Total fouls | 62 | 58 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 82.2 | 86.8 |
| Interceptions | 47 | 42 |
| Offsides | 13 | 10 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Estudiantes LP vs Corinthians Paulista stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Estudiantes LP the favourite
- Moneyline Estudiantes LP 2.20 | Corinthians Paulista 3.75
- Draw 2.85
The odds line up closely with the bookmakers’ implied percentages, Estudiantes sit as favorites without being overwhelming ones. A price above 2.00 on the home side feels fair rather than a bargain, given Corinthians’ pedigree as a bigger club on paper despite their current slump. We see more value in the draw or a double chance line than in backing Corinthians outright at close to 3.75, their away form simply does not support that price.
Possible Starting Lineups
Estudiantes LP possible starting eleven
- GK: Fernando Muslera
- DF: Tiago Tomas Palacios, Gastón Benedetti, Santiago Núñez, Eros Nazareno Mancuso
- MF: Lucas Piovi, Gabriel Neves, Alexis Castro, Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez, Joaquín Correa
- FW: Guido Carrillo
Medina should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has defined his last five games. Piovi and Neves screen the back four while Castro and Gallego Rodriguez push forward alongside Correa, who has been used more as an attacking midfielder than a pure striker. Carrillo leads the line and remains the player most likely to punish any Corinthians defensive lapse.
Corinthians Paulista possible starting eleven
- GK: Hugo Souza
- DF: Gustavo Henrique, Matheuzinho, Matheus Bidu, Gabriel Paulista
- MF: Kaio César, Allan, Rodrigo Garro, André Carrillo, Breno Bidon
- FW: Pedro Raul
Diniz favors the same 4-2-3-1 shape, with Kaio César and Allan holding in front of the back four while Garro, Carrillo and Bidon rotate behind lone striker Pedro Raul. Garro’s touch on the ball will decide how much Corinthians can dominate territory, though the away side’s recent form makes converting that possession into goals the real question.
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Corinthians Paulista. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Estudiantes LP edge this opener at home, perhaps by a single goal, with both sides finding the net given how often each has conceded lately. Carrillo’s finishing and the home crowd should tip a tight, low-scoring affair in Medina’s favor. To be honest, Corinthians’ away form this year makes them hard to trust even against a struggling Estudiantes side, and that gap in confidence is where the value lies for punters backing the hosts or the draw double chance.
