Estoril vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction: 24.01.2026 Primeira Liga 2025/26

Estoril welcomes Vitoria Guimaraes to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota for a mid-table duel in the Primeira Liga Regular Season, with both sides eyeing crucial points for their European ambitions. While Estoril’s recent 5-0 win over Estrela made headlines for its offensive fireworks, Guimaraes has made a statement of resilience by beating both Braga and Sporting CP in recent weeks. With only two points separating them in the standings, this matchup promises tactical intrigue and the opportunity for one side to establish itself as the dark horse in the hunt for continental spots.

Central to Estoril’s hopes will be forward Yanis Begraoui, who has netted a remarkable five goals in his last three matches, underscoring lethal finishing and an uncanny knack for finding space inside the box. On the other side, Vitoria Guimaraes will rely on the lively Alioune Ndoye, whose three goals across the last five games have been crucial in tight contests. Both teams boast creative midfielders—João Carvalho for Estoril and Fábio Samuel for Guimaraes—whose ability to turn possession into penetration could be decisive.

Hot stat: Vitoria Guimaraes have won three of their last five league games despite accumulating a daunting 11 yellow cards, highlighting their aggressive edge but also the discipline challenge facing coach Luís Pinto’s squad.

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Estoril vs Vitoria Guimaraes prediction

The odds slightly favour Estoril’s home advantage, but Guimaraes’ recent scalps against top-six opposition suggest they are more than capable of taking points from this clash. With both managers preferring the modern 4-2-3-1 formation and an emphasis on controlling midfield, a tight tactical battle is anticipated. Given their scoring form (Estoril 10 goals, Guimaraes 6 in last five) and both teams’ tendency to push the tempo—albeit with defensive frailties—backing both teams to score as the best value bet stands out. A high number of corners (Estoril 10, Guimaraes 19) and fouls (39 and a staggering 73, respectively) points towards a dynamic encounter with plenty of action in the final third and also competitiveness that can swing momentum rapidly.

Estoril’s relative discipline (6 yellow cards last 5 games) contrasts sharply with Guimaraes’ 11 yellow cards and high foul count, so expect the visiting side to play on the edge – a factor that could catch up with them, especially if the referee is strict. Ball progression stats reflect Estoril’s slightly higher pass accuracy (1364/1568, roughly 87 percent) compared to Guimaraes (1440/1811, ~80 percent). However, the visitors’ ability to disrupt play with aggressive pressing (48 interceptions vs 45) levels the playing field. All told, the likeliest scenario is an open, high-tempo game with scoring chances on both ends.

Team Analysis

Estoril Recent Games:
Estoril’s last outing was a statement 5-0 demolition of Estrela, with Yanis Begraoui grabbing headlines and João Carvalho pulling creative strings with three assists. Prior to that, Estoril overcame a wobble with a solid 4-1 win over Alverca, but did see their defensive limitations exposed in the 1-3 loss to Benfica. Their attacking ambitions are clear: 10 goals in the last five, complemented by a fluid offensive setup. However, a tally of 39 fouls and only six yellow cards underlines a balanced approach—aggressive but under control.

Vitoria Guimaraes Recent Games:
Guimaraes arrives having stunned both Braga (2-1) and Sporting CP (2-1) on home turf, demonstrating their knack for upsetting bigger names. Last week’s narrow 0-1 loss to Porto displayed defensive grit, but also highlighted their habit of picking up bookings—11 yellow cards in five matches, in contrast to just six for Estoril. Offensively, Alioune Ndoye has emerged as the go-to man, and their 19 corners (across five games) reflect a team constantly probing in attack. Yet, with 73 fouls, discipline remains a question mark.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Estoril vs Vitoria Guimaraes stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Estoril the favourite

• Moneyline Estoril 2.50 | Vitoria Guimaraes 2.96
• Draw 3.22
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.95 | Under 2.5 1.82
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.74 | No 2.03

The odds reflect Estoril’s slight home advantage, but Vitoria Guimaraes are not far behind, making this one of the most balanced fixtures of the round. Over 2.5 goals at near evens highlights bookmakers’ expectation for attacking play, aligned with recent trends. BTTS at 1.74 suggests both teams’ scoring prowess, while the draw at 3.22 represents genuine value for a closely contested contest. The ‘Draw No Bet’ for Estoril is a pragmatic pick, hedging for home strength while not discounting Guimaraes’ ability to upset the odds.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Estoril possible starting eleven

This Estoril XI reflects consistency in selection and leans on a fluid 4-2-3-1 foundation. Joel Robles brings reliability in goal, while defensive regulars like Boma and Amaral offer stability. Midfield creativity rests with Carvalho and Holsgrove, and up top, Begraoui is the player to watch—having scored five in his last three appearances. Expect Orellana to link transitions, with Guitane and Mendez adding penetration from wide positions.

Vitoria Guimaraes possible starting eleven

Coach Luís Pinto will likely deploy a familiar 4-2-3-1, emphasizing Ndoye’s physicality and finishing as the focal point. Abascal anchors the back line, while Fábio Samuel is critical for transitions. Saviolo has chipped in with vital goals and could be the x-factor. While Guimaraes brings more aggression, having tallied 11 yellow cards in the last five, this lineup has both the resilience and the creative edge needed for high-stakes encounters.

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My take on the Match

Everything points to a high-energy battle in Cascais. Estoril’s home record and sharp attacking unit, powered by Begraoui, sets up a clash where both sides are likely to score and press for the win. However, caution is warranted—Vitoria Guimaraes’ physicality and recent showings against the top sides signal they are not to be underestimated. My main pick is Both Teams to Score (Yes), with leanings toward Over 2.5 goals and Estoril “Draw No Bet” as secondary options, thanks to their slightly greater discipline and home comfort. Expect a dynamic contest—one that should captivate not just bettors, but all followers of Portuguese football.

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