Estonia vs Israel Prediction: 06.06.2025 FIFA World Cup UEFA Qualification Preview

On 6th June 2025, Estonia host Israel at the Brann Stadion in Bergen for a pivotal encounter in FIFA World Cup UEFA Qualification Group I. While Group I may not feature a so-called ‘group of death’, the stakes are tangible for both these nations. Only separated by goal difference after two rounds, both Estonia and Israel have everything to play for as they look to keep pace with front-runners Norway. An interesting subplot? Estonia, under new coach Jürgen Henn, are cultivating a more progressive style, while Israel’s own project under Ran Ben Shimon aims to channel a recent upturn in attacking verve, as evidenced in their goal-packed duels so far.

Key figures for this clash include Estonia’s promising attacker, Henri Anier, whose clinical edge was pivotal in their 3-2 win over Moldova, and Israel’s crafty midfielder Manor Solomon, a player capable of unlocking defences with a deft touch or a surging run. Both men could be central to their nations’ fortunes. The “hot stat”? Both sides have already scored four goals in just two qualifiers—excellent output for teams of their standing and an indicator this may not be a drab, cagey contest.

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Estonia vs Israel prediction

Looking at current form and squad strengths, Israel come into this tie as favourites. They’ve edged the bookmaker consensus with a predicted win probability of 62% compared to Estonia’s 14%—and it’s no mystery why. Israel’s ability to create chances away from home, combined with Estonia’s somewhat leaky defence (four goals conceded in two group games), tips the balance. However, Estonia’s home advantage at Brann Stadion and their recent 3-2 win over Moldova suggests resilience.

Estonia tend to approach matches with physicality and a pragmatic edge, averaging a steady number of fouls and cards in past campaigns, while Israel favour controlled aggression, keeping their card count in check and enjoying prolonged spells of possession. We could see Israel bossing the ball, with Estonia aiming to capitalise on set pieces and quick transitions.

Team Analysis

Estonia’s recent games have been a mixed bag, but the result that stands out is their 3-2 triumph over Moldova. Estonia exhibited impressive mental fortitude to edge a topsy-turvy contest, their attack spearheaded by Henri Anier showing diversity and adventure. Before that, they lost narrowly to Israel (1-2) and went down by the same margin to Slovakia (0-1), evidence they can hang in against superior opposition but sometimes lack the killer instinct defensively. Their home form, especially in European qualifiers, remains patchy, and set-piece defending could be under scrutiny.

Israel’s recent form reflects inconsistency but also attacking potential. After a dramatic 2-4 defeat to high-flying Norway—a result which perhaps flatters Norway given Israel’s attacking phases—Israel bounced back with a slender 2-1 win in their last meeting with Estonia. Their previous outings saw them mix it with Europe’s elite: a 1-0 win over Belgium, a 0-0 draw with France, and a chastening 1-4 loss to Italy. Ran Ben Shimon’s men are capable of taking points from anyone, but defensive lapses remain their Achilles heel, as shown by five goals conceded in their opening two qualifiers.

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🚨Read our full Estonia vs Israel stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Israel the favourite

• Moneyline Estonia 7.10 | Israel 1.54
• Draw 4.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.97 | Under 2.5 1.75
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.89 | No 1.78

The odds amply back Israel, making them a logical favourite. Their attacking strength and higher technical baseline are evident in everything from pass accuracy to shot creation, while Estonia are rightfully priced as outsiders after shipping goals in recent fixtures. The over/under total at 2.5 and short odds for both teams to score hint at an open, end-to-end affair—this isn’t likely to be a chess match! With Israel likely to control midfield tempo yet vulnerable to Estonia’s counterpunches, calling goals at both ends is a prudent choice.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Estonia possible starting eleven

Estonia’s line-up skews towards experience in defence with Hein between the sticks and Teniste marshalling the back line. In midfield, Vassiljev’s creativity could be key, while the pace of Sorga and the poaching instincts of Anier provide threat up top. Coach Jürgen Henn often sets out in a 4-3-3, prioritising compact defensive lines and swift transitions—expect more of the same here.

Israel possible starting eleven

Israel’s likely to stick with an adventurous 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, with Peretz anchoring in goal. Vitor brings muscle to the centre of defence, while the midfield features the prodigious Oscar Gloukh and Solomon, both game-changers with the ball at their feet. Up front, Weissman and Baribo are expected to rotate and press high. Watch for Solomon and Gloukh to try dictating rhythm and finding pockets against Estonia’s disciplined back four.

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My take on the Match

This should be an absorbing encounter, with Israel the technical superior but Estonia always capable of springing a surprise—especially if weather and pitch conditions favour a slower, more physical game. My main pick: Israel to win and both teams to score. Estonia are unlikely to sit back for ninety minutes given their home crowd and recent attacking displays, so an open contest beckons. For all their verve, though, Israel should edge it—maybe by a margin of 2-1 or 3-1. The momentum and quality are with Ran Ben Shimon’s squad, but this World Cup qualification campaign is still wide open and every point vital.

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